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speckledjim
21 January 2023 10:43:36

Good news - or is it? Has anybody else reached that age where they are starting to get conflicted? I have only had a couple of decent snow falls in the last decade or so and few ice days. In that period I have turned 70, had two total knee replacements, balance not as good as it was, get watery eyes even more in the cold and feel cold more easily. So why the hell am I still looking at these charts for cold and snow?? I guess after 60  years of anticipation I can't break the mould and the magic is still there and I did enjoy the one week of snow before CHristmas, the first here for several years! 😄

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Don't like the cold one bit and am looking forward to the day the children are grown up and I can spend these miserable months somewhere warm 😁
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Brian Gaze
21 January 2023 10:46:11
Snow is all about anticipation trumping the actuality. Once it has arrived you quickly think "so what?" In many ways it is similar to Christmas Day. On the other hand summer weather delivers in spades because of what it makes possible.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+4
ballamar
21 January 2023 10:48:26
Looks like possible sliders in the offing from GFS - would be a change from the usual 
Hippydave
21 January 2023 17:38:15
Fun little storm GFS 12z spins up with 60-85mph winds over essentially the whole country, happily it's in deep FI so will most likely be gone by the 18z. There are some hints appearing in the ens and the Ops that more unsettled weather is on the way for the start of Feb, something to watch albeit not too unexpected given it's the normal pattern. 

 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Brian Gaze
21 January 2023 17:40:22
Probably a number of examples, but off the top of my head I can't recall seeing something quite this extreme across the North Atlantic before.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
21 January 2023 17:48:45

Probably a number of examples, but off the top of my head I can't recall seeing something quite this extreme across the North Atlantic before.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The GFS did it a few years ago, and stuck with it for a few runs - it ended up with gales for us, but not especially noteworthy IIRC. I remember commenting on the 925 and 920 isobars!

Talking of which, here's the 915mb one. Not something you see every day!

UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
tierradelfuego
21 January 2023 18:54:57

The GFS did it a few years ago, and stuck with it for a few runs - it ended up with gales for us, but not especially noteworthy IIRC. I remember commenting on the 925 and 920 isobars!

Talking of which, here's the 915mb one. Not something you see every day!

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Looks like a good weekend to have a forum AGM in Iceland?!?

GEFS looks pretty dry until the turn of the month when there's a bit more rain around and milder temps, deep in FI of course. Looking at the MLSP the Op and Control certainly take a dive at that point compared to most of the rest of the ensemble.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
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Snow Hoper
21 January 2023 19:18:12
Most of us would be happy with the GFS control run. Seems there is still lots to resolve before the turn of the month.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
UncleAlbert
21 January 2023 19:25:48
Up until present this has not been the type of winter that gets stuck in one sort of pattern or even repeating cycles of type.  Going by current output, this also appears to be the case in the days ahead.  So whilst in many a winter past, by the time we get to this stage, there is a feeling that the 'die has been cast', one gets the impression that there will be quite a few more twists and turns before we get to March!
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
21 January 2023 19:59:23

Snow is all about anticipation trumping the actuality. Once it has arrived you quickly think "so what?" In many ways it is similar to Christmas Day. On the other hand summer weather delivers in spades because of what it makes possible.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The wrong thread for philosophy, but there is something magical about watching frozen water drifting almost weightlessly about in the air, which although usually a fleeting experience in this country, is worth the anticipation.
In summer too, a dramatic thunderstorm is usually equally short-lived but worthy of the anticipation.
In winter, long cold spells which turn my solid brick house walls into a virtual cold store, and in summer long hot spells which turn it into a bread oven, are equally miserable experiences.
The point I am making is that weather thrills are transient, whatever time of year.
Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
+1
Lionel Hutz
21 January 2023 21:40:36

The wrong thread for philosophy, but there is something magical about watching frozen water drifting almost weightlessly about in the air, which although usually a fleeting experience in this country, is worth the anticipation.
In summer too, a dramatic thunderstorm is usually equally short-lived but worthy of the anticipation.
In winter, long cold spells which turn my solid brick house walls into a virtual cold store, and in summer long hot spells which turn it into a bread oven, are equally miserable experiences.
The point I am making is that weather thrills are transient, whatever time of year.

Originally Posted by: RobN 



More philosophising, but everything is transient, Rob! Sometimes that's an awful tragedy and sometimes that's a bloody relief!

Either way, the fact that we're philosophising in the model output thread suggests to me that there's nothing too exciting in the charts.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 January 2023 08:21:02
WX charts week 1 show cold or freezing weather over most of W Europe linking back to the main mass of cold air over Russia. Milder air pushes in in week 2 to affect mainly Britain (temps back to norm), Atlantic and Baltic coasts  and the colder weather hanging on in the Alps. Pptn for N Norway and the Med, dry between, with a secondary patch over Belarus and some returning to N Scotland in week 2 .

GFS Op - current SW-NE ridge of HP over Britain rotating to become aligned W-E from mid-Atlantic to Russia Wed 25th but developing a centre W of Ireland where it ambles around between there and N France through to Tue 7th. N-lies frequent over the continent, sometimes affecting E Britain (Thu 26th, Thu 31st); at other times there is more SW-ly influence for W Britain (Sat 4th, Tue 7th)

ECM - similar though at the end of its run (Wed 1st) the HP sinks further S and W-lies set in

GEFS - temps briefly mild then cool for a day or two around Thu 26th before reverting to norm or a little below with plenty of variation. A little rain in some runs from about Wed 1st in N, later on in S.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Downpour
22 January 2023 10:21:22

Looks like next week won't be mild at all for most, despite the BBC confidently saying numerous times that it will be mild by this weekend and showing 10c+ temperatures.

Longer term outlook is still anyone's guess and zonality is back on the table. However there isn't much sign of anything mild at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



indeed. A great example of the Beeb getting the forecast very wrong. A proper fail. What shall we call it, A Lear Frost? A Carol Rime? 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Hungry Tiger
22 January 2023 15:04:34

Probably a number of examples, but off the top of my head I can't recall seeing something quite this extreme across the North Atlantic before.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 






About 25 years ago Iceland had a low with a central pressure of 916. mb.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


sunny coast
22 January 2023 15:24:50

indeed. A great example of the Beeb getting the forecast very wrong. A proper fail. What shall we call it, A Lear Frost? A Carol Rime? 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Was thinking same . They always want to bring u the mild air so quickly  aweek ago they were forecasting widespread double figures by this weekend and yet this morning it was minus double figures in Oxfordshire.   This happens regularly in these situations 
+1
idj20
22 January 2023 17:50:57
GFS 12: Shades of the Bartlett Winters of 1988 and 1989 with an euro slug high. Still, much rather have that than bombing lows crashing onto the UK.
Folkestone Harbour. 
ballamar
22 January 2023 18:32:58
If we can’t have cold let’s get some springlike weather in - GFS looks like an early introduction 
dagspot
22 January 2023 19:12:42
we never even got double fingers West of Scotland even by Sunday only just scraping 9dc.  
Neilston 600ft ASL
MBrothers
22 January 2023 20:10:12

we never even got double fingers West of Scotland even by Sunday only just scraping 9dc.  

Originally Posted by: dagspot 

the mind boggles if you’re waiting for double fingers 😂
+2
Gandalf The White
22 January 2023 21:01:00

indeed. A great example of the Beeb getting the forecast very wrong. A proper fail. What shall we call it, A Lear Frost? A Carol Rime? 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



To be fair, the thing the BBC got wrong was putting the contract out to tender and not retaining the Met Office. 

It seemed pretty obvious to me that they were wrong about mild air from the north-west making it across the entire country, because the charts just didn’t seem to show that as a preferred outcome.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Taylor1740
22 January 2023 22:39:11

To be fair, the thing the BBC got wrong was putting the contract out to tender and not retaining the Met Office. 

It seemed pretty obvious to me that they were wrong about mild air from the north-west making it across the entire country, because the charts just didn’t seem to show that as a preferred outcome.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


yes which makes me wonder what they base their forecasts on, and why they were so confident on mild air moving in so much more quickly than has turned out. 
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
Lionel Hutz
22 January 2023 23:22:17

yes which makes me wonder what they base their forecasts on, and why they were so confident on mild air moving in so much more quickly than has turned out. 

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



To be fair to them, it's a case of fine margins. It's been around 9c here all day and I suspect that it's been similar in the the far west of England and Wales. So they weren't that far away. A matter of a couple of hundred miles.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 January 2023 08:21:38
Briefly, I have to go out ...

WX temps; freezing weather slowly withdrawing from W Europe but remaining cool; colder in the far N around Iceland in week 2. Pptn as yesterday in week 1 (far N Atlantic and Med) but a big 'wodge' in week 2 covering Atlantic and all W Europe except Spain.

GFS Op - Hp close to W Britain until Wed 1st directing N/NE-lies into Europe  while Britain remains calm, just a touch of N-lies for E coast Tue 31st; week 2 shows a switch to zonal W-lies with cold lps crossing or very close to Scotland esp deep low Mon 6th 955mb

ECM - similar, keeps N/NW-lies going from Tue 31st into Wed

GEFS - mild for a couple of days, then mean close to or a little below norm for the foreseeable, usual increasing variation between ens members, rain (more than yesterday) showing up increasingly from Fri 3rd (S) Wed 1st (N)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
scillydave
23 January 2023 09:13:57
Interesting to see that Heathrow just recorded its coldest night since 2010 with -9.1c That gives it a near 50c degree range over the last 8 months. 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Ally Pally Snowman
23 January 2023 09:42:31

Interesting to see that Heathrow just recorded its coldest night since 2010 with -9.1c That gives it a near 50c degree range over the last 8 months. 

Originally Posted by: scillydave 



It's been a funny old winter when it's been cold it's been very cold. And when mild very mild. Goes for the whole of the northern hemisphere currently -50c in parts of China. Record cold there.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
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