indeed this has been a disappointment for the vast majority of the UK population and indeed the proper snow is almost entirely outside the populous areas of the UK. as an aside, a huge forecasting miss again for the BBC, who were ramping 5-10cm for large swathes of the S/E yesterday.  they have now got both S/Eastern snowfalls this winter wrong - albeit in opposite directions (the December one called for 2-3 inches and delivered more than 6 here!)

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Yes indeed, a case where one degree makes a difference between a wet snow wonderland and a rainfest (with a bit of sleet).

ECM came out best IMBY (it had sleet for most of the day today), followed by the GFS (which had snow all morning, then rain) and lastly the UKV (which kept it as rain, not even sleet).

It's a real shame that the GFS handles snow so poorly, as it doesn't handle sleet (our sleet, that is, rather than the American ice pellet version). ECM has much better parameters, even differentiating between powdery snow and wet snow. The same applied to the GFS would be a very much-needed upgrade. It's a reminder, too, that as it stands GFS pops up a "snow" flag even if it's a few flakes of snow amongst the rain - woe betide anyone taking those tempting snow symbols as gospel at times like this!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Re CP's post above: it was intended for the Russian Invasion thread and CP has re-posted it there, and (I think) has tried to delete it here. But it's still showing up, and won't move, edit or be quoted, even for a moderator! so just ignore it.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Yes indeed, a case where one degree makes a difference between a wet snow wonderland and a rainfest (with a bit of sleet).

ECM came out best IMBY (it had sleet for most of the day today), followed by the GFS (which had snow all morning, then rain) and lastly the UKV (which kept it as rain, not even sleet).

It's a real shame that the GFS handles snow so poorly, as it doesn't handle sleet (our sleet, that is, rather than the American ice pellet version). ECM has much better parameters, even differentiating between powdery snow and wet snow. The same applied to the GFS would be a very much-needed upgrade. It's a reminder, too, that as it stands GFS pops up a "snow" flag even if it's a few flakes of snow amongst the rain - woe betide anyone taking those tempting snow symbols as gospel at times like this!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I'm really, really sorry about that, Dew. It was indeed meant for another thread. I deleted the post [color=var(--bs-body-color)] and it seems to be gone on my end at least. I really hope it is not showing up for others on this to thread either [/color]

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Yes, lots of interest across swathes of the UK despite some parochial attitude shown on here, thankfully that’s not the majority view.

In northern parts the cold looks like lasting until at least the weekend and potentially returning after a brief milder blip. The t850hPa mean on the 12z GEFS suite dips to 11.2°C here on Saturday. If this pattern continues, as has been mentioned elsewhere, the month could turn out to be significantly below average in terms of temperature.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I think that's a tad harsh on those who did have little lying snow. My impression is that most of the 25 million people living south of the M4 were probably in that situation. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I think that's a tad harsh on those who did have little lying snow. My impression is that most of the 25 million people living south of the M4 were probably in that situation. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

No, it’s not in the slightest as that is not what my point was, so I guess you misunderstood. I could name the poster in question but most people know and I don’t want to draw further attention to them. It is one member who thinks the world revolves around their location and posts such parochial nonsense ad naseum. Everyone else seems to recognise the nuances and vagaries of snowfall in this country - the excitement, the anticipation, the frustration, the disappointment, it all goes with the territory as a weather fan. The dismissal of weather outside your backyard is the tedious nonsense that detracts from this thread. I’ve been watching with interest what has happened in the south and guess what, I don’t live there. I still think it’s important.

If you think my post was criticising people for being frustrated about not getting snow, it really isn’t and I frequently share that frustration.

Anyway back to what the models show and that is the potential for snow almost anywhere and lots of it somewhere (probably in the middle swathe of the country later tomorrow). The outlook is anything but dull even if it turns out to be frustrating.

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Again, and I have said this many times….

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Whereas we in the sunny metropolis called Berkshire had 4 inches of snow, most of which has stayed all day on the Downs at 135m. Go down a few miles to Reading at 60m ASL with heat island taken into account and there was nigh on bugger all snow. Delighted to live where I do, even if I had to go out an de-snow the veg patch cage roof at 6:45 this morning!!

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

Yes you have and it was boring the first time.

This thread is for discussing model output not an analysis of the population distribution. Of course all weather is local but you appear to dismiss or downplay the impact of any weather not local to you. As I said that is a tedious and parochial view and the fact you cannot even see that further emphasises my point. Few others feel the need to discuss how many millions will be impacted by a certain event yet that is all you do.

You never post anny analysis, no charts, just regular comments about the population distribution. Perhaps the Moaning thread would be more appropriate?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The 18z ICON shows why I absolutely detest SE’ly winds. 😂

Some good totals elsewhere. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Never easy for our part of the world is it. Sometimes I wonder what the setup was that used to bring snow drifts up to the bedroom windows in the 1960’s.As for Glossop I’m just hoping we can beat 5cm as that’s the most we’ve had in one fall since 2018! Incredibly poor.
I think it will come in bursts here due to the shadow effect. Snake Pass will be shut for some time I bet. 

Originally Posted by: snow 2004 

For the south it’s over - not that it started for my balmy coastal location.
For the N Midlands and North a decent event developing today with deep snow overnight I would think anywhere with elevation down the spine of the area.
When you look back at the modelling I’d say it’s a decent performance so long as you take a blend of the solutions on offer and not cherry pick the most convenient. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

The excitement begins to die away ...

WX temp charts week 1 with rather cold weather all the way across N Europe from Scotland to the Baltic and into Russia, the rest of Europe with average temps. In week2 the cold area shrinks N-wards, still affecting most of Scandinavia, while other areas become milder if not exactly warm away from the Med. Pptn in week 1 from France up to the Baltic and all points W of that; in week 2retreating W-wards but including Britain in both weeks.

GFS Op - the current LP moves E across England 980mb Cornwall tomorrow, then a sequence of LPs running past Scotland with winds generally W-ly but those marked * push a trough well S to cover Britain, with the wind doing its usual backing S before and veering N after. LPs on Mon 13th 970mb Hebrides, 1000mb Fri 17th Ireland, 970mb Tue 17th Scottish border*, 975mb Thu 23rd Faeroes*, 985mb Sat 25th Faeroes.

ECM - similar to GFS but always with a tendency to bring HP closer to S England

GEFS - In the S some wild swings in temp with ens member agreeing, some 7C down on norm 11th and 15th, but 5C up on 13th, after that mean settles to norm or a little below with usual divergence; rain now and for w/b Mon 13th, less intense but still damp after. Similar for Scotland but with a colder base so higher chance of snow from time to time esp week 1.

Originally Posted by: DEW