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fairweather
14 April 2023 14:37:39
Yes - GFS op picked this up at least a couple of days ago as a bit of an outlier but now the BBC have backtracked saying the hopes of 20C have now faded and 15C looking more likely. Still at least that is an improvement on todays drizzle and 11C in a brisk easterly, although more of the same can't be ruled out in the next couple of weeks looking at the charts!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
14 April 2023 14:54:36

And there it is, the obligatory north easterlies associated with a strong Scandy high, it magically appears in late April and probably last into mid Summer. Happens every time.

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Wish it did, TBH, as I loathe hot weather. April/May time is meant to be good for NE'lies, though, as blocking increases into late spring due to the vortex winding down.

(To me, every day it isn't 20C is a bonus. The theory goes that if you want a heatwave, such as we had last year, you need lots of very dry and preferably warm weather beforehand. Otherwise, much of the sun's energy is spent drying and warming the ground... albeit in recent years that seems to have been somewhat less of an issue, such as that day we had a random 35C in Heathrow!)
Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
14 April 2023 15:30:10

Wish it did, TBH, as I loathe hot weather. April/May time is meant to be good for NE'lies, though, as blocking increases into late spring due to the vortex winding down.

(To me, every day it isn't 20C is a bonus. The theory goes that if you want a heatwave, such as we had last year, you need lots of very dry and preferably warm weather beforehand. Otherwise, much of the sun's energy is spent drying and warming the ground... albeit in recent years that seems to have been somewhat less of an issue, such as that day we had a random 35C in Heathrow!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I don't really buy into the dry soils in the months before a heatwave thing either. Back in 2018, we had some tremendous thunderstorms over here just a couple of weeks before the hottest spell of weather since 1976. Soils will dry out very quickly in June regardless of how much rain has fallen. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 April 2023 06:52:51
WX charts continuing to show the freezing area shrunk to the far N of Europe by week 2, but the rest of W Europe  slow to warm up and looking still below norm temp for rest of April. Warm on Med coasts. Wet around the Adriatic week 1, dry for Atlantic coasts and Scandinavia; week 2 damper everywhere with focus on W Med.

GFS Op - LP rather slowly quitting SE England for Europe but pressure rises to 1040 mb Shetland Wed 19th just about holding off Atlantic LP so winds E/SE. Later, by Wed 26th, the HP centre has transferred to Greenland and NE-lies set in for a while until the HP, rather diffuse, is back over England May 1st

ECM - As yesterday, resembles GFS at first but reluctant to move the HP W-wards, and even intensifies it 1030mb Shetland Mon 24th

GEFS - generally good agreement for a mild spell around Sun 23rd, before mean is back to norm for end of month ( wide variation but op & control colder than most ens members, hence the WX charts based on these, even a snow row figure of 1 on the S Coast May 1st!). Small amounts of rain in some ens members from Thu 20th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
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16 April 2023 07:25:06
No change in temp profile from yesterday; WX charts continuing to show the freezing area shrunk to the far N of Europe by week 2, but the rest of W Europe  slow to warm up and looking still below norm temp for rest of April. Warm on Med coasts. Almost the same  for week 1 rain Wet around the Adriatic week 1, dry for Atlantic coasts and Scandinavia;  but week 2 quite wet everywhere across Europe, Britain for once getting a bit less than elsewhere.

GFS Op - HP reaching a peak over Shetland 1040mb Wed 19th with some cool-looking E-lies for points to the south (note that the MetO have rowed back on their optimism for 20+C this week). By Sun 23rd this HP and an Atlantic LP have circled each other, the HP moving to Greenland and the LP moving up from the SW to become part of a broad trough from mid-Atlantic to Norway with a 995mb centre over Scotland. By Fri 28th the Norwegian end of the trough has taken over with N-lies for Britain, but by Tue 2nd something milder and drier is rather uncertainly moving up from France as the LP shifts towards Iceland.

ECM - does not develop the trough from Sun 23rd but keeps it as two separate centres with Britain in a col in between. Pressure rises in this col so by Wed 26th HP is at 1030mb England with mild S/SE lies and any trace of  a N-ly blocked over Norway.

GEFS - a lot of temp variation between ens members from the start in the S,  Scotland shows a consistent decline to norm by Fri 21st ; after that mean stays near norm everywhere but op & control persistently cool, even cold around Fri 28th. Small amounts of rain at any time in the S, rather more in Scotland.


 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
fairweather
16 April 2023 09:06:31
The BBC keeps predicting warmer drier weather for tomorrow and has been for several days now but tomorrow never comes, not here anyway and now the charts also reflecting a lower chance of warmer weather in the forseeable. I wonder how many years it is since we have been unable to reach 20C before May in the S.E? Quite a few I would imagine.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Taylor1740
16 April 2023 11:22:13

The BBC keeps predicting warmer drier weather for tomorrow and has been for several days now but tomorrow never comes, not here anyway and now the charts also reflecting a lower chance of warmer weather in the forseeable. I wonder how many years it is since we have been unable to reach 20C before May in the S.E? Quite a few I would imagine.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


yes and looking at the 6z run it looks more like winter returning rather than summer arriving. It is unusual to get to May before the first 20c.

As for the BBC they do not impress me at all, they are always very quick to predict warm/mild weather. They were talking up 20c for next week a few days ago and now looks like 15c at best.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
bledur
16 April 2023 18:30:34
After being forecast a dry week it now looks quite wet at the end of the week in the south. Turning out to be a late  wet Spring now in contrast to some recent years.😞
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
16 April 2023 18:39:52
All the models now seem determined to give us one last taste of winter. Very depressing.  Has been one of the most underwhelming Springs I can remember.  Roll on Summer.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
16 April 2023 19:42:29

After being forecast a dry week it now looks quite wet at the end of the week in the south. Turning out to be a late  wet Spring now in contrast to some recent years.😞

Originally Posted by: bledur 


Yes, last week the forecast for this week was mostly sunny with a chance of hitting 20C, with  a cracking weekend to come. Now it looks wet and lucky to hit the teens by the end of the week!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
CreweCold
16 April 2023 22:48:47

I wonder how many years it is since we have been unable to reach 20C before May in the S.E? Quite a few I would imagine.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Makes a refreshing change IMO. Fed up of our climate getting warmer and warmer and blander and blander. A brief deviation from that is appreciated.

I personally would be very very happy with another 2007 or 2012 style summer.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
idj20
17 April 2023 03:43:22

All the models now seem determined to give us one last taste of winter. Very depressing.  Has been one of the most underwhelming Springs I can remember.  Roll on Summer.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



The Spring of 2013 was such a season. Wasn’t until mid June when sycamore trees finally went into full leaf, that then lead to a stunted Summer and we can all remember how the following Autumn and Winter turned out. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves in here where the next set of runs may show a more cheerful picture, despite not being quite so in the general trend. 😂
Folkestone Harbour. 
Retron
17 April 2023 04:08:24

Makes a refreshing change IMO. Fed up of our climate getting warmer and warmer and blander and blander. A brief deviation from that is appreciated.

I personally would be very very happy with another 2007 or 2012 style summer.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


Yes, I wholeheartedly agree - and not just because I hate heat with a passion (especially after last year, where I had to book into a hotel as it was simply unliveable at home - the day it reached 40C here).

I think some people forget that we aren't a Med nation, and a day of 20C in April, let alone above, is still very much in the minority rather than something that should be expected with any great regularity! The mean maximum down here in April has risen from 12C to 14C in the past 30 years, which is more than enough, thank you very much.

Talking of which, I updated my long-running CET sheet, which I use for various calculations. Updating the means from 81-10 to 91-20 invariably raised them by a half degree or so, which shows how fast things are warming.

Based on that, the last summer with all 3 individual months below average (91-20) was 2015, before that 2011 then 2008. The last summer with all 3 months above average was 2022, then 2018, then 2016... you get the idea. Even in that latest 30-year period, the warmth is skewed to the latter half.

The current outlook, which continues to be average to rather cold, should at least remind us of how things should be; after all, over time half the months should be colder than average!

And for the heat-hounds on here, don't worry: we've still got plenty of time for things to flip back to warmer conditions, including "flaming June" and the rest of the summer. A few coolish weeks in April is certainly not a sign that the summer as a whole will be cold, or even average, as I'm sure we all know!
Leysdown, north Kent
+4
Rob K
17 April 2023 05:35:28

The Spring of 2013 was such a season. Wasn’t until mid June when sycamore trees finally went into full leaf, that then lead to a stunted Summer and we can all remember how the following Autumn and Winter turned out. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves in here where the next set of runs may show a more cheerful picture, despite not being quite so in the general trend. 😂

Originally Posted by: idj20 



2013 had a fantastic summer from what I can remember? It went downhill in August, as seems traditional nowadays, but July was a proper scorcher. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ozone_aurora
17 April 2023 05:58:21

2013 had a fantastic summer from what I can remember? It went downhill in August, as seems traditional nowadays, but July was a proper scorcher. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I remember it very well, living in Lowestoft at the time.

June was described as 'nothing to write home about'. It was on a coolish and dullish side overall, but it was dry.

July was an excellent month. Mostly very warm and sunny after a cool, dull start. It was quite thundery in late month, however, it was an exceptionally dry month; only 5.5 mm RF recorded.

August was more changeable and not as good as July, but, still, there was a good deal of warm, dry, sunny weather. 
DEW
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  • Advanced Member
17 April 2023 07:13:47
WX charts shrink the blue (freezing) areas to virtually nothing by week 2, but cool weather persists through W Europe including Britain. Warmth still in Iberia but not advancing from there; OTOH the hot weather around the Caspian makes a push into Ukraine and W Russia. Patches of rain scattered across W Europe and down to Greece in week 1; in much the same place in week 2 but development on the Atlantic also threatens W Britain in week 2.

GFS Op - HP over Britain drifting N to Shetland 1040mb Wed 19th; E-lies across England bringing in cooler weather there, maybe a small cold pool generating heavy showers by Friday (MeteoGroup via BBC agrees; MetO just says cloudy). From Sat 22nd a broad trough of LP often establishes from Atlantic to the SW up to Norway in the NE; slack across Britain at first, deeper over Denmark 995mb Tue 25th with N-lies for N Sea coasts, back again Sun 30th with centre N Ireland and after that transferring NW-wards to lie between Scotland and Iceland.

ECM - much more in line with GFS than yesterday when it showed a blocking HP keeping N-ly influences at bay - this has now gone.

GEFS - dry with temps near norm to Thu 20th then a lot of difference between ens members; the main cluster including op and control very much below norm (some 8-10C below around Wed 26th* but enough very warm outliers in the S to drag the mean close to norm there!) and rather more rain than shown yesterday esp in N, Temps back to norm Sun 30th and becoming drier in the S.

* snow row figures in the Highlands up to 20 for 2 or 3 days at this time
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
The Beast from the East
17 April 2023 08:29:44
Thanks to much misreporting in the media, most plebs seem to think a heatwave is still coming. Hilarious. When will they stop believing the lies they read in their papers?
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
Brian Gaze
17 April 2023 09:36:11
Interesting to see if we get a 20C today or tomorrow.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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GezM
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17 April 2023 11:02:55



I think some people forget that we aren't a Med nation, and a day of 20C in April, let alone above, is still very much in the minority rather than something that should be expected with any great regularity! The mean maximum down here in April has risen from 12C to 14C in the past 30 years, which is more than enough, thank you very much.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I'm a heat lover but I agree on this point. In recent years we've been spoilt with our April weather - lots of sunshine and plenty of warm days (not necessarily mild nights!). This has probably raised people's expectations of our spring climate.

Up until recently, my general perspective for April was low to mid teens first half, mid teens second half with perhaps high teens and a nudge over 20C if we were lucky. And that's the Home Counties. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+2
doctormog
17 April 2023 12:05:30

Interesting to see if we get a 20C today or tomorrow.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Could Altnaharra get there today? If not Kinloss or Lossiemouth might tomorrow.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
17 April 2023 12:35:11

Interesting to see if we get a 20C today or tomorrow.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Could Altnaharra get there today? If not Kinloss or Lossiemouth might tomorrow.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Kinlochewe has just recorded 20.1C https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1647937745526960130 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
17 April 2023 12:45:30
Another stinker of a GFS Op. The 6z is Very cool throughout.  Ensembles are better but no great shakes really. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
CreweCold
17 April 2023 13:13:42

Yes, I wholeheartedly agree - and not just because I hate heat with a passion (especially after last year, where I had to book into a hotel as it was simply unliveable at home - the day it reached 40C here).

I think some people forget that we aren't a Med nation, and a day of 20C in April, let alone above, is still very much in the minority rather than something that should be expected with any great regularity! The mean maximum down here in April has risen from 12C to 14C in the past 30 years, which is more than enough, thank you very much.

Talking of which, I updated my long-running CET sheet, which I use for various calculations. Updating the means from 81-10 to 91-20 invariably raised them by a half degree or so, which shows how fast things are warming.

Based on that, the last summer with all 3 individual months below average (91-20) was 2015, before that 2011 then 2008. The last summer with all 3 months above average was 2022, then 2018, then 2016... you get the idea. Even in that latest 30-year period, the warmth is skewed to the latter half.

The current outlook, which continues to be average to rather cold, should at least remind us of how things should be; after all, over time half the months should be colder than average!

And for the heat-hounds on here, don't worry: we've still got plenty of time for things to flip back to warmer conditions, including "flaming June" and the rest of the summer. A few coolish weeks in April is certainly not a sign that the summer as a whole will be cold, or even average, as I'm sure we all know!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes last summer was draining. Surely no one who has to drag themselves to work every day enjoyed that?

Don’t get me started on the people who champion that sort of weather then smugly say they have air conditioning…they can spend an hour in the heat then scuttle off to get some relief. Most people can’t do that.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
fairweather
17 April 2023 14:16:18
I prefer a sunny and changeable Spring, as a gardener. Today is great, sunny and about 18C after a lot of rain so ideal to get things growing. Dull cold Springs are depressing and the wildlife suffers. I don't like hot summers, 25-26C is perfect with some short lived wet spells to freshen things up. Outlook in the models looks a bit too bleak for the start of May for my liking.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
DEW
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17 April 2023 16:59:18
With an interest in gardening, I regard 20C as a pleasant bonus. Much more worrying is the model output for the middle of next week, with op & control some 7 or 8C below norm and snow row figures of 10+ anywhere N of Sheffield. I hope it doesn't work out like that as that low a temp will certainly mean frost which will blast apple blossom and any tender plants.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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