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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2023 07:27:24
WX temp profile fairly static for the next two weeks with Europe divided along N-S lines; France and westwards  above norm and fairly mild; Poland and westwards cool but still above norm; Scandinavia and Russia below freezing and also somewhat below norm. Some warmth also in eastern Med. Rain over Atlantic coastal countries incl Britain in week 1 splits in week 2, one half moving N to Iceland, the other half moving S to the Med, but not absolutely dry in between.

GFS Op - week 1, LPs from Atlantic moving across Britain making more progress into Europe than shown yesterday, filling as they go. (currently 1010mb Germany, 970mb N Ireland Fri 8th to 995mb Baltic Tue 12th leaving shallow LP off W Scotland, that goes to 1000mb Denmark Wed 13th). Week 2, a general rise in pressure 1035/1040mb to the SW, mostly affecting Britain though with a N-ly break Wed 20th before re-establishing as a SW-NE ridge Fri 22nd.

ECM - similar to GFS though the HP in week 2 is closer 1040mb Fri 15th and looking set to stay there.

GEFS - wettest in week 1, drier later, poor agreement on slightly milder in week 1, wide variation later though mean stays near norm
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gavin D
06 December 2023 09:12:48
The KAM South Korean model is now available to view on meteociel

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/kmae_cartes.php 
Rob K
06 December 2023 09:57:04

The KAM South Korean model is now available to view on meteociel

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/kmae_cartes.php 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Well it's showing a load of cold air heading to Greece so it looks pretty accurate.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
06 December 2023 10:15:46

Well it's showing a load of cold air heading to Greece so it looks pretty accurate.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



LOL, the curse of the modern winter! ECM day 10 mean looks like a Bartlett. Can it get any worse? Amusing to see this unfold on netweather. All so predictable. Roll on Spring
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
06 December 2023 10:24:29
Up to 198hrs on GFS and there is a strong HP over the UK
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
jhall
06 December 2023 11:10:16

Up to 198hrs on GFS and there is a strong HP over the UK

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Yes, at least it looks like we may at least get some drier weather.

Far out in FI, the GFS ensemble is giving a hint of something colder, but of course it's far too premature to get excited.
Cranleigh, Surrey
ballamar
06 December 2023 12:01:32
Signs of Arctic/Siberian high at end of GFS op
Saint Snow
06 December 2023 12:02:19

Signs of Arctic/Siberian high at end of GFS op

Originally Posted by: ballamar 




And we're back on the train!

😁

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2023 12:23:11
Not convinced there's much hope in the ensembles GEM,  GFS and ECM all look very uninspiring out to the 22nd. A pre Christmas freeze up looks extremely unlikely now.
But remember 62/63 didn't get going until Boxing day. 😁🙃
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
06 December 2023 12:25:20

Not convinced there's much hope in the ensembles GEM,  GFS and ECM all look very uninspiring out to the 22nd. A pre Christmas freeze up looks extremely unlikely now.
But remember 62/63 didn't get going until Boxing day. 😁🙃

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Your final line is on the winter watch bingo card haha
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Saint Snow
06 December 2023 13:55:33

Not convinced there's much hope in the ensembles GEM,  GFS and ECM all look very uninspiring out to the 22nd. A pre Christmas freeze up looks extremely unlikely now.
But remember 62/63 didn't get going until Boxing day. 😁🙃

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




Boxing Day snow is like a late birthday present. Yeah, you'll take it... but it would have been so much better on time.

I think deep, countrywide snow lying the week before Xmas is the ideal. Get you in the Xmas spirit!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Lionel Hutz
06 December 2023 14:24:46

Your final line is on the winter watch bingo card haha

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Oh, there are plenty more of those cards to play😂:

"The winter of 1947 didn't really start until later January" and

"The Beast from the East arrived at the end of February 2018".

 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



CField
06 December 2023 14:43:21
Some cold clear frosty days in the lead up to Xmas possibly with a late readjustment to more favourable wintry hazards..but on the whole another years wait for a White Christmas  is likely now.
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Brian Gaze
06 December 2023 16:33:58
GFS 12Z showing a classic "Bores high pressure". Will it go anywhere?

FWIW, anecdotally I reckon these forecast "cold and frosty" mid latitude high pressure cells end up "rather mild and overcast" 8/10.

UserPostedImage

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2023 16:49:59

Oh, there are plenty more of those cards to play😂:

"The winter of 1947 didn't really start until later January" and

"The Beast from the East arrived at the end of February 2018".

 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 



1975 had snow in June too 😉
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Tim A
06 December 2023 16:50:17

Oh, there are plenty more of those cards to play😂:

"The winter of 1947 didn't really start until later January" and

"The Beast from the East arrived at the end of February 2018".

 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


'Last years SSW induced winter didn't arrive until 8th March.' 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Brian Gaze
06 December 2023 16:50:54

1975 had snow in June too 😉

Originally Posted by: GezM 



Winter 1989 was such a slow burner we're still waiting for it to start.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gusty
06 December 2023 16:51:33
A possible route to Christmas cold at 288. A long way off and unlikely to verify but the Arctic High has been in evidence this month and may work for us longer term.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=294&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Surrey John
06 December 2023 17:24:27
Plenty of evidence that the cold has been building in Scandinavia

The northern Baltic Sea temperatures are all about 2c below normal (the long term average is in the small ovals). Sea has already frozen along whole coast of Finland and there is now ice across middle of Bothnia

https://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/sstcolor.pdf 

If it does freeze this year it shortens the distance any Siberian weather has to cross open sea to reach UK.  
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
Gandalf The White
06 December 2023 19:15:41

A possible route to Christmas cold at 288. A long way off and unlikely to verify but the Arctic High has been in evidence this month and may work for us longer term.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=294&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 
 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



The route has a locked gate on it and Uncle Bartlett has the key….. 😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2023 19:24:47
After the unsettled spell looks like a foggy faux cold ECM 12z tonight. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
06 December 2023 19:28:38
“Faux” as in not really cold just a bit average?
Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2023 19:37:56

“Faux” as in not really cold just a bit average?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Ice days down here 14th and 15th on that run. Probably fog I'd imagine. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
06 December 2023 19:58:23

Ice days down here 14th and 15th on that run. Probably fog I'd imagine. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Probably cooler than average for your area on that ECM run but not ice days:

14th: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/hertfordshire/max-temperature-6h/20231214-1800z.html 

15th: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/hertfordshire/max-temperature-6h/20231215-1800z.html 

Nationwide it’s all a bit nondescript: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/max-temperature-6h/20231215-1800z.html 
Ally Pally Snowman
06 December 2023 21:14:51


OK must have misread it earlier. As you say bit of a snoozefest atm.

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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