Everything is trending south again on the 0Z set. Plenty of snowy charts on all the models.
 

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Sums it up perfectly - so this is a test for the models. In the past when the GFS and UKMO align, it’s the ECM that stands alone only to correct late to align with the others - but may be this time it’s the ECM that has it right - we’ll see!! I surely hope so.

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Well, not all the models - or since the WX charts only offer a weekly average, yes, but not for very long. Their output this morning for week 1 is still as it has been, mild across most of Europe with freezing weather in N Scandinavia and  N Russia, admittedly much colder there than previously shown. In week 2 yesterday's breakout to much of Europe has been scaled back; colder, certainly, but not freezing except in mountainous areas with just a little dab for the Highlands (yesterday it was shown as freezing for much of Britain. Pptn in week 1 from the Atlantic across most of N Europe plus W Spain; in week 2 bits and pieces here and there.

GFS Op - consistent with yesterday's charts, the prolonged spell of zonal W-lies giving up Tue into Wed as Hp retreats S-wards and allows Atlantic LP to link up with Scandinavian LP so by Fri 9th LP 965mb is off the tip of Cornwall, slowly drifting across Britain and bringing N/NE-lies for all on Sat. By Tue 13th a ridge of HP arises over the N Sea, cutting off the NE-lies, and covering all of Britain Thu 15th. This moves around a bit (at one stage SW-lies for Scotland) but is still there 1030mb Tue 20th.

ECM - keeps the incoming LP further S, so more E/NE than GFS, and persists, sitting C England 990mb Sun 11th, and still no further away than Holland Wed 14th with the incoming ridge of HP showing up to the W of Ireland (and at this stage, a refreshing reminder that Scandinavian HP can exist , 1040mb Finland.

GEFS - In the S, not much change from yesterday, good agreement on mild to Sat 10th and including a lot of rain Wed 7th - Sun 11th (snow unlikely in the far S, possible in N England), then drier and cooler for a few days before ens members disagree; mean back to norm but with the control run raising hopes for colder weather. Likewise, forecast for Scotland is consistent with yesterday, becoming colder earlier (on the 7th), bouts of pptn on Wed 7th and Sat 10th, snow quite likely to lower levels. Temps most likely back to norm by Tue 13th, as in the S. 

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Yes, after I thought GFS was nuts yesterday, the system on Thursday could even miss to the South of here as per ECM.  Interesting week. 
This winter has had two cold spells with some limited snow for most but to turn it into an OK winter we need some big impact snow events.  The last two winters have had far too much time where there hasn't even been a hint of sleet ,frost or ice. 

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I’m still thinking that although it will be rather cold and unsettled at times it may be cold and wet rather than cold and white.

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Agreed I still see next weekend as a sort of bonus event with the real potential for the last third of Feb. Plent of time to change but next weekend looks miserable for many further north more likely snow. But that is how it always is in winter. Would love to be surprised and there is a minority that supports that

My view is that if this doesnt deliver a snowstorm for somewhere, then what will at this point?

We have a undercutting low hitting the jet under cold air over the UK. The potential here is ridiculous so if this turns into a damp squib maybe its time to accept a new climate makes lowland England unsuitable to any long lasting snow.

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There is a trend across the suites of a shift south in the track of the weekend low. Deja vue perhaps? 
What that means on the ground is yet to be determined, but the risk of a wintry mix extending south over the weekend definitely on the table.
Longer range and there’s still some traction in extensive HLB.

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Yep another snowy GFS easterly on the 6z. It will actually happen one day.
 

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Is it snowy? Doesnt seem to be cold enough at low levels

 

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Starts to snow day 11 in the South, peak about day 13 ish.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=6&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

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Come along children, follow the trail of jam to Fantasy Island where an evil wizard awaits. 

That won’t apply if you just read and discuss what’s being modelled.  Anybody with an ounce of sense knows that things often change at short range, especially when it comes to snow.  It doesn’t hurt to get a bit excited at the prospects though.  😉

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Wrong thread, but that’s quite an upgrade in the latest MetO extended outlook.
Increasing risk of some areas seeing a notable snowfall over the weekend - area as yet to be defined.

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😂😂 One of the funnier posts I’ve read in here since Richard!s last paen. 👍

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I see that the 12z GFS is showing snow for large parts of N England on Tuesday into Wednesday as the cold air moves south meeting the weather front.

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Arpege looks interesting for parts of central and northern England. 

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UKMO 12Z looks great for snow southern third of UK. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021 

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Not sure about that. The ppt charts look messy and marginal.







 

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Expected better tbh.


 

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GFS seems to be a bit mean today...issues with Southern  heights to SE seem to be playing a hand......

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Current runs indicate, Wet snow event to a dry UK high to end winter. And not that cold either.
 

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Looks like a rather messy pattern setting up to me. The Scottish GFS ens sets have decent grouping around 6 days of so of below average weather with a decent chance of snow. You don't have to go that far south for that signal to be watered down with a lot of scatter.

ECM sets are maybe marginally better in the south than the GFS but it's not a particularly cold signal down here at least (Again, for Scotland much better grouping around a reasonable period of below average 850s). A quick look at the precip and 24h snow parameters suggests it'll generally be the wrong side of marginal IMBY, so chilly and damp more likely than anything snowy. T2M temps show decent clustering around 3-6c from the 13th. 

Still chilly air with LPs wandering round does at least give the potential for some temporary snowfall for some and it's not a million miles away from something more interesting, albeit clearly the models at present aren't keen on anything properly cold for much of the country. 

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Looking better down the line on the op run with a better Arctic high

Most models now not showing anything significant for the south east in the predictable future.

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