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Downpour
05 February 2024 15:31:39

For here the Op spent most of the time from next Monday up in the top decile of the ensemble suite.  In other words it’s a highly improbable evolution.  In contrast the median sits below the mean across the same period, meaning the milder options skew the picture somewhat.

The run suggests colder than normal for the middle of February, if not notably so.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Looks soggy and unpleasant for the vast majority of the UK population to me, nothing to get excited about. In fact, rather the opposite. Another bout of chilly, damp weather is what many will wish to avoid. 

Roll on spring. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+2
Taylor1740
05 February 2024 16:25:46

Looks soggy and unpleasant for the vast majority of the UK population to me, nothing to get excited about. In fact, rather the opposite. Another bout of chilly, damp weather is what many will wish to avoid. 

Roll on spring. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


yep I think today's runs have finally ended this winter and any hope that it might produce anything of interest from a cold and snow perspective for 90% of the UK population.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+3
nsrobins
05 February 2024 16:32:57
Without stating the bleeding obvious but GFS (the proverbial dog with a bone) is going in the wrong direction and significantly dents my enthusiasm for anything remotely similar to what EC and UKM are suggesting going forward.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Tim A
05 February 2024 16:38:43
Surprised the Met Office update for here for Friday is 'Brighter spells with scattered snow showers'  more akin to this Mornings UKMO than this evening's and obviously not GFS.  But wouldn't rule it out completely , the ensembles I have seen today all show massive uncertainty. 
 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
CField
05 February 2024 17:00:04
Bit off topic but the UK has become the master of missing the deep cold....been many fine examples in recent years but this winter has got to be the preverbial peak A++ for effort!
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
+2
doctormog
05 February 2024 17:02:34

Surprised the Met Office update for here for Friday is 'Brighter spells with scattered snow showers'  more akin to this Mornings UKMO than this evening's and obviously not GFS.  But wouldn't rule it out completely , the ensembles I have seen today all show massive uncertainty. 
 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



Yes the Met Office seems quite bullish on the prospect of snow showers in this region over the coming days (more so around here on Thursday and Friday). Overall across the models it looks on the cold side of average but with the specifics of any wintriness very hard to forecast. 

There continues to be a very high level of uncertainty in the GEFS output beyond the 10th with a (diminishing?) cold cluster more akin to the UKMO and ECM options and a range of other less cold options. The GFS op runs recently seem to have always been one of the mildest options.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
05 February 2024 17:06:17

yep I think today's runs have finally ended this winter and any hope that it might produce anything of interest from a cold and snow perspective for 90% of the UK population.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



That is if one assumes that the GFS 12z and other recent GFS op runs are proved correct. I think that is a very big assumption to make at this time.

EDIT: GFS 12z actually looks a bit better to my eyes having looked at it chart-by-chart that I was expecting, given some comments above.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+2
Jiries
05 February 2024 17:08:40

Looks soggy and unpleasant for the vast majority of the UK population to me, nothing to get excited about. In fact, rather the opposite. Another bout of chilly, damp weather is what many will wish to avoid. 

Roll on spring. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



All your posts had been very true and correct for many of us that no wintry weather with snow had occurred at all.  With models had been poor especially last month phantom cold spell then let Spring come early.   
+2
doctormog
05 February 2024 17:14:25

That is if one assumes that the GFS 12z and other recent GFS op runs are proved correct. I think that is a very big assumption to make at this time.

EDIT: GFS 12z actually looks a bit better to my eyes having looked at it chart-by-chart that I was expecting, given some comments above.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



It is better David (albeit one of the mildest options again) but you have to sift through the IMBYism to actually see what the models show. All the points in your comment are spot on. The northern three quarters of the UK could see snow at various times before the end of the week. Perhaps largely on high ground or in the form of showers but still lots of uncertainty.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
05 February 2024 18:08:08
We have a Met Office warning of snow from 3am Thursday to 3am Friday.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Ally Pally Snowman
05 February 2024 18:29:50
Ecm follows gfs and after some slush it turns thoroughly wet and miserable. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Snow Hoper
05 February 2024 18:53:27

Ecm follows gfs and after some slush it turns thoroughly wet and miserable. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Not really, you have the same low pressure to deal with before high pressure moves in.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
doctormog
05 February 2024 18:58:00
Embrace the chaos. Shannon entropy anyone?  😇
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
05 February 2024 19:00:34
It is what it is. I'm not seeing much in the way of wintry potential in my patch of the woods.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+2
Tim A
05 February 2024 19:05:57
Be interesting to see the ECM ensembles.  
UKV is better and cold seems to be heading south again at 120hours.  Not sure it's a given that the low goes crazy and pumps warm air up. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
BJBlake
05 February 2024 19:15:34

Embrace the chaos. Shannon entropy anyone?  😇

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Totally agree: Snoozefest it is not. What is - is the relentless westerly strong breeze and 12-14 degrees we have now, with catkin hay fever earlier than Ive ever known. I long for marginal snow events, heavy slow moving showers that turn 6 degrees into blizzards and that then slowly melts again. 

Bring on the potential and chaos and let’s see if the Nirvana follows - with Scandi-high, plus crisp and dry snow, sunlit glinting frost topped whiteness, and the threat of heavy snow showers moving in for the overnight period. Well these days - that’s my wet dreams! Sad old sod that I am. Lol 😂
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
05 February 2024 19:16:46
First Spanish plume of the year. Its never to early 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Downpour
05 February 2024 19:24:28

First Spanish plume of the year. Its never to early 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Interesting although obviously FI. Would be a very welcome change from the cold, wet slushy mush that appears to be heading the way of the vast majority this week. I hope I am wrong, but I fear I will be right again ☹️
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
The Dub Version
05 February 2024 19:25:00
Quite possibly the worst winter season modelling ive ever seen when it comes to cold

They have all been atrocious

Mild it is after the wet snow in N
 
Berkshire
David M Porter
05 February 2024 19:35:42

First Spanish plume of the year. Its never to early 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Not sure that any 'plume' would last long with that chart. Notice pressure rising to the NW.



 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Chunky Pea
05 February 2024 20:12:17

Not sure that any 'plume' would last long with that chart. Notice pressure rising to the NW.



 

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Very odd pattern. Looks Iike a cold front would move back down after that, with no real arctic cold behind it. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

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Gandalf The White
05 February 2024 20:28:07

Quite possibly the worst winter season modelling ive ever seen when it comes to cold

They have all been atrocious

Mild it is after the wet snow in N
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



If you’re expecting accuracy to within a hundred miles at 5-6 days out then yes, I’d agree, but I think the models have been pretty good within the reliable range.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
Gandalf The White
05 February 2024 20:29:20

Not sure that any 'plume' would last long with that chart. Notice pressure rising to the NW.



 

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



I agree, David. It has that early spring look where you can swing from mild to Arctic in 24-48 hours.  Not that the charts will look like that in 8-10 days from now, of course.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
The Dub Version
05 February 2024 22:05:51
Only the uk could get a luke warm northerly in mid winter
Berkshire
fairweather
05 February 2024 22:32:03

It is better David (albeit one of the mildest options again) but you have to sift through the IMBYism to actually see what the models show. All the points in your comment are spot on. The northern three quarters of the UK could see snow at various times before the end of the week. Perhaps largely on high ground or in the form of showers but still lots of uncertainty.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


You do indeed and they show cold snowy potential weather in yours and miserable chilly damp for majority not in the North. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+2
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