And yet on the other side of the Atlantic the warming Arctic seems to lead to a weaker jet stream that always seems to loop south and allow intense cold outbreaks way down to the Gulf of Mexico. The USA has seen countless cold records broken in recent years (which is partly why there is such a high level of AGW scepticism over there. It mainly seems to be Europe that gets the warmth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Most of GEFS goes against the OP run so all is not lost for getting cold in

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

None of them show proper cold though so whats the point. A half way house is just chilly nothingness.  Might as well be mild now. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Teleconnections, mountain torque, PFJ, SSW, AO, AAM, NAO, MJO, LGBTQ+ WTF and seasonal Indicators? There's more indicators on a BMW driver.

None of it adds up in the new warming era.
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Met Office climbdown in the medium term forecast. It was inevitable. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yep, almost complete volte face, or farce as it stands

1% chance of east winds 

laughable
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Yep, almost complete volte face, or farce as it stands

1% chance of east winds 

laughable
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Yep, almost complete volte face, or farce as it stands

1% chance of east winds 

laughable
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Is it? Forecasts can and do change when there is enough signals for them to do so. Long ranges, I would imagine, would almost certainly be totally model based.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

I just checked the long ranger and it doesn't seem much different?

"Whilst there is a large degree of uncertainty, conditions are most likely to be drier and more settled than usual through the remainder of February with winds from the east or north. This increases the chance of cold conditions and fog, with some wintry showers also possible. "

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yep, almost complete volte face, or farce as it stands

1% chance of east winds 

laughable
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

I think that's fair, but they have been saying its going to get cold for weeks and it hasn't.  They've had a mare no question. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I haven't a clue what the gfs has been up to  the last two or three days with their strat outputs but if todays 12z run is anything near correct then another beast from the east would be well within the realms of possibilities going forward. I have been patiently waiting for the strat runs to get back on track in regard to what they were showing a few days ago and in the last few runs they have been slowly  backtracking with todays 12z showing a peach of a run. A very large split from the top down with one part of the vortices over central Canada and the other over northern Europe with strong geopotential height straight up from the north Atlantic across the pole to the Pacific. 
Obviously we need to see this profile sustain but if it does then with a coupled trop/strat we could see a very quick trop response. For the next few days its a watch and wait brief but if this is the correct direction of travel then some extremely juicy charts should soon be coming into view.

Originally Posted by: DPower 

I think that's fair, but they have been saying its going to get cold for weeks and it hasn't.  They've had a mare no question. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I haven't a clue what the gfs has been up to  the last two or three days with their strat outputs but if todays 12z run is anything near correct then another beast from the east would be well within the realms of possibilities going forward. I have been patiently waiting for the strat runs to get back on track in regard to what they were showing a few days ago and in the last few runs they have been slowly  backtracking with todays 12z showing a peach of a run. A very large split from the top down with one part of the vortices over central Canada and the other over northern Europe with strong geopotential height straight up from the north Atlantic across the pole to the Pacific. 
Obviously we need to see this profile sustain but if it does then with a coupled trop/strat we could see a very quick trop response. For the next few days its a watch and wait brief but if this is the correct direction of travel then some extremely juicy charts should soon be coming into view.

Originally Posted by: DPower 

Totally agree with these comments. The Contingency planners were consistent from late autumn onwards about a backloaded /cold end to this winter. The continued shift of potential cold onset is characteristic of ‘hanging in there’ like watching a corpse and expecting it to reanimate. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows