theweatheroutlook

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White Meadows
28 July 2024 06:52:29
Great post R

Seems we have a reversal (not the atmospheric kind) of trends whereby the kids break up from school and summer arrives proper. Usually that heralds a certain beginning to unpleasant conditions! ..at least in recent years. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2024 07:04:51
WX ten-day summary stepping back from yesterday's cool-down, with Britain staying much the same for the next two weeks, warm in the SE, but still cool in N Scotland. New development in week 2 is much cooler weather for W Russia; S Spain joins the Aegean for unreasonably hot weather (I've seen suggestions for 40-45C for various parts of the Mediterranean). In week 1, as yesterday, band of rain from Germany NE-wards, but in week 2 this links to Scotland & Ireland and unlike yesterday leaves England & Wales relatively dry.

GFS Op - HP persisting for most of the coming week, though being nibbled at by continental LP in the south, then on Friday 2nd a fairly deep and cool LP moves to Rockall 985mb and drifts around between there and Iceland throughout the following week, unsettled for Scotland esp the NW, but S England hanging on to the remnants of HP. On Sun 11th the LP centre moves to SW Ireland, bringing warm/hot SE-lies for all before cutting them off as it moves E-wards to S Scotland.

ECM - like GFS but on Wed 7th (last chart in series) the LP begins to move NE-wards, not S-wards, and leaves a trailing trough across England. Ex-hurricane also showing off the US coast then.

GEM - also like GFS with that LP a few mb deeper and closer to Scotland, and on Wed 7th develops a new LP W of Ireland 990mb, earlier than on GFS. The ex-hurricane is still sticking around Florida.

GEFS - a warm peak in the S (5C above norm) for Wed 31st though scarcely noticeable in the N, then near or a little below norm from Fri 2nd for a week before recovering somewhat. Rain from time to time from 31st onward, not much in Scotland at first, not much in England later, but quite widely most persistent and heaviest around Wed 7th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2024 07:06:58

All the models go with the scenario of a low moving over the UK next Friday and sitting there (GFS has it doing so for the entire following week), just spinning its filthy ass round and round, dumping rain and dragging in cold air.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I wish the media would use this kind of terminology for a predicted lousy week of weather!
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Brian Gaze
28 July 2024 07:09:37
Tuesday looking like it could be the hottest day of the year so far. UKV goes for 33C in London.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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doctormog
28 July 2024 07:20:30
Yes, a rather unsettled outlook in the medium to longer term especially in more northern and western parts. Before then, in the more reliable time frame,  it looks not too bad for most parts. 
At a glance it looks a little better in this morning’s output than on yesterday’s. Potentially hot in the southeast but pleasantly warm at times elsewhere.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
cultman1
28 July 2024 08:19:42

All the models go with the scenario of a low moving over the UK next Friday and sitting there (GFS has it doing so for the entire following week), just spinning its filthy ass round and round, dumping rain and dragging in cold air.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Well the Met Office app at least for the SE shows quite the  opposite. I am more inclined to go with their 5 day forecast as so far this summer they seem to have generally got the medium term forecasting right.
+2
ozone_aurora
28 July 2024 09:00:18
The Azores high is weak, only 1020 mbars at surface on 7 August, according to GFS.

Another thing I've noticed is that the Atlantic hurricane activity is now very quiet, in contrast to Pacific that seems quite active.
White Meadows
28 July 2024 09:19:57
Fairly strong agreement summer comes to an abrupt end on the weekend for the north west. Pretty ugly in fact if that low swings in any further. 
Hopefully the south east can cling on to some warmth. 
Taylor1740
28 July 2024 10:57:24

Fairly strong agreement summer comes to an abrupt end on the weekend for the north west. Pretty ugly in fact if that low swings in any further. 
Hopefully the south east can cling on to some warmth. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Indeed it does and just a week ago a lot of the professional forecasters I heard were very confident that August would be the warmest and best month of the summer which isn't looking the case now. Also it looks like GFS will be proved correct once again despite many writing it off as always. 
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
bledur
28 July 2024 10:58:03

Tuesday looking like it could be the hottest day of the year so far. UKV goes for 33C in London.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That will get the Met Office in a frenzy . It seems as soon as it gets a bit warmer they bang on about Heatwaves
Conditions look to turn increasingly warm, or even hot, in central, southern and eastern areas early next week and it is possible some places may reach heatwave criteria. It’s uncertain how long this warmer weather will last though, with a possible breakdown from mid-week.
3 Days.  🙄Some one will tell me it is for the Healthcare Service . Yes but why is it on the public MO page?
icecoldstevet
28 July 2024 11:00:49

It's a bit more than just a "corner", but we'll agree to disagree on that one I guess. (Even Great Yarmouth, 90 miles north of here, has the same picture as down here in relative terms).

You don't pick the SW for warmth, btw, being a peninsula stuck out into the ocean, and it genuinely baffles me why it's so popular with sun-seekers... if that's what you're after it's a guaranteed disappointment. You pick it for its scenery and mix of rocky and sandy beaches rather than the climate!

You're far better off in the SE, which again has always been the case - Eastbourne used to trade on being the sunniest resort in the UK, and as you'll know we get the warmest conditions in general - along with the humidity too. The sea is shallower too, so heats up very quickly (SSTs are 19C off Sheppey, for example, 18C off Eastbourne, compared to as low as 14C off north Cornwall -
https://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/sst.php  )

The MetO still has 30s this morning, and I fully suspect another 31 if not 32 will be found somewhere in the London area on Wednesday.

Beyond that, GFS does what it's done through the summer, showing some heavy rain, while MetO shows nothing but the odd bit of cloud... and, as usual, GFS is a couple or more degrees below the MetO output generally. GFS has temperatures a degree either side of the mean, while MetO is resolutely above, only reaching normal by next Sunday. And that, of course, is never going to be the most accurate forecast... I mean who would take a T+180 chart as gospel? Not many, I'd wager!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Models are again showing temperatures in the SW (where we are in North Cornwall) just under 20c for the foreseeable.  Regarding your comment about the SW not being for sunseekers, people come here for what is a sensible climate, great surf and not having ridiculous traffic, noise and pollution to deal with, it's never too hot or too cold (in the winter) and having lived here now for 3 years it seems as sunny as anywhere else I've been.
Cornwall - 50 Metres Above Sea Level - 1 Mile From The Atlantic Coast
+1
bledur
28 July 2024 11:12:56

Models are again showing temperatures in the SW (where we are in North Cornwall) just under 20c for the foreseeable.  Regarding your comment about the SW not being for sunseekers, people come here for what is a sensible climate, great surf and not having ridiculous traffic, noise and pollution to deal with, it's never too hot or too cold (in the winter) and having lived here now for 3 years it seems as sunny as anywhere else I've been.

Originally Posted by: icecoldstevet 


Thing about Cornwall is that if the weather is not suitable for you on the North Coast, it will be different on the South Coast.
 Having been stuck on the A30 many years ago in traffic jams i cannot agree with you there.
picturesareme
28 July 2024 12:13:56
UserPostedImage 
This is for us on the coast so i wouldn't be surprised if something higher than 33C is reached inland.
icecoldstevet
28 July 2024 13:56:53

Thing about Cornwall is that if the weather is not suitable for you on the North Coast, it will be different on the South Coast.
 Having been stuck on the A30 many years ago in traffic jams i cannot agree with you there.

Originally Posted by: bledur 


In comparison with anywhere in the South East the occasional jam on the A30, mainly in the holiday period, pales into insignificance.  As for the models showing temperatures around the SW, people should note that there are significant local variations and micro climates which don't tend to happen so much elsewhere in England, one day in 2022 Exeter had 34c which spawned a load of people coming to Bude on the bus for the weekend (yes I said bus, we have no trains), when they got here it was 18c with thick fog !!
Cornwall - 50 Metres Above Sea Level - 1 Mile From The Atlantic Coast
+1
Saint Snow
28 July 2024 14:37:51



You don't pick the SW for warmth, btw, being a peninsula stuck out into the ocean, and it genuinely baffles me why it's so popular with sun-seekers... if that's what you're after it's a guaranteed disappointment. You pick it for its scenery and mix of rocky and sandy beaches rather than the climate!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I'm not arsed about extreme temps, just mid-20's are fine. FWIW, the Met Office forecast this week for where I'm going (right in the coast) has temps of 27, 29, 28, 25.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Saint Snow
28 July 2024 14:41:10
My only hope is that the big low doesn't dive south as far as the models are [all 😖] showing, and the AH ridge manages to cling on over the SW.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
28 July 2024 16:56:30

I'm gloomy because it happens the week before I go to Devon, and 'my week' looks like being bobbins. Maybe others are just in sympathy for me 🤣


I'm holding out hope that 'my week' will be OK because up to just a few days ago, it was looking the much better week; this imminent 'heatwave' has expanded from a day or two of dry with decent temps.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Happens to me every time - even if we ever go to the Med - then you feel even worse!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Chunky Pea
28 July 2024 17:14:19

It's a bit more than just a "corner", but we'll agree to disagree on that one I guess. (Even Great Yarmouth, 90 miles north of here, has the same picture as down here in relative terms).

You don't pick the SW for warmth, btw, being a peninsula stuck out into the ocean, and it genuinely baffles me why it's so popular with sun-seekers... if that's what you're after it's a guaranteed disappointment. You pick it for its scenery and mix of rocky and sandy beaches rather than the climate!

You're far better off in the SE, which again has always been the case - Eastbourne used to trade on being the sunniest resort in the UK, and as you'll know we get the warmest conditions in general - along with the humidity too. The sea is shallower too, so heats up very quickly (SSTs are 19C off Sheppey, for example, 18C off Eastbourne, compared to as low as 14C off north Cornwall -
https://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/sst.php  )

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Map showing % of dull days last summer (to cite just one random example). That SW peninsula (would really love to visit it someday) was sunnier than most (at least on these two islands), which seems in accordance with longer term averages.

 UserPostedImage
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
Retron
28 July 2024 17:27:53

Map showing % of dull days last summer (to cite just one random example). That SW peninsula (would really love to visit it someday) was sunnier than most (at least on these two islands), which seems in accordance with longer term averages.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Yes, the average in the SW is duller than it is in the SE - which is why if you want sun, you're better off coming to the SE. As I said, it's been that way since at least the Victorian days!

The Met Office had an article about Bognor Regis being the sunniest place in the UK one year (at over 1900 hours a year), and included a reference map with it. Annoyingly I can't find a 91-2020 one, but it would show increased levels of sunshine all round. Kent and Sussex will still take the crown though, and you can thank the shorter sea track (compared to the SW) for that.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/sunshine_average_1971-2000_17.gif 

EDIT: Here's another map, courtesy of a solar cell company - it covers the odd period of 1994-2018.

https://solaradvice.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Sunshine-Hours-Map-UK-Solar-Radiation-Map.jpg 

Again, the far SE has the highest total amount of solar energy, and again it'll be due to lower convection compared with the SW.

And yes, I am being anal about it, I know... it's because I'm grumpy at living in an area that's so sunny! 😁
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Chunky Pea
28 July 2024 17:39:35

Yes, the average in the SW is duller than it is in the SE - which is why if you want sun, you're better off coming to the SE. As I said, it's been that way since at least the Victorian days!

The Met Office had an article about Bognor Regis being the sunniest place in the UK one year (at over 1900 hours a year), and included a reference map with it. Annoyingly I can't find a 91-2020 one, but it would show increased levels of sunshine all round. Kent and Sussex will still take the crown though, and you can thank the shorter sea track (compared to the SW) for that.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/sunshine_average_1971-2000_17.gif 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I think a lot of the duller days in both the north of England / inland locations and in my own location (reasonably inland) is down to the impact of convective build up during the day. That south of England region, being closer to the Azores high, seems less prone to that, inc your heat prone location in the SE. 

Edit: just read your own edit now and we seem in agreement on the convective influence.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Retron
28 July 2024 17:43:26

I think a lot of the duller days in both the north of England / inland locations and in my own location (reasonably inland) is down to the impact of convective build up during the day. That south of England region, being closer to the Azores high, seems less prone to that, inc your heat prone location in the SE. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


The other thing is the "fizzle factor". Time and again we see it - an active weather system moves in from the west, drenching Ireland (it's called the "emerald isle", after all, for a reason), then as it gets to the east of the UK it fizzles out, leaving just a bit of cloud and perhaps the odd spot of drizzle. Apply that effect to systems that are weaker to start with, and it means cloud breaking up as it moves east, again the west being most affected.

Even spells of high pressure will still have cloud trying to move in from the west, the only way to avoid it is to have high pressure centred over the Midlands or further north (albeit that then raises the risk of cloud coming up from the south). It's surprisingly hard to get a large high centred over the British Isles for long, and as a winter fan I know that all too well! It *feels* like it's easier to get in summer, but even then in reality it's usually just a day or three, rather than a long stretch. Ridging from the south (with the north and west under SW'lies) is more common.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Saint Snow
28 July 2024 20:19:36
To clarify, I'm not trying to denigrate the SE corner as having the most sunshine and warmest temps 😉
But there isn't that much difference right across the south portion.

Anyway, to get back on topic, first hints from all 3 that the low may not be as horrible as has been showing over the past few days. Please make it happen!

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
picturesareme
29 July 2024 01:00:57
31C now showing here for Tuesday. Hottest seen forecasted this year 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 July 2024 07:13:10
WX temps showing little change over the next two weeks; markedly cold over Iceland, very hot in the Med, and Britain (and NW Europe) between the two. Effectively cool in N Scotland, warm in SE England. Rain for the N Atlantic (incl W Britain), the Alps and W Russia in week 1, the last of these fading but W Europe becoming a patchwork of wet and dry areas - wettest part of Britain is Wales/ N England.

GFS Op - current HP over Britain declining (MetO suggesting scattered thunderstorms for England Thu) . By Sat 3rd LP moving from NW to Rockall 990mb, staying in that general area and eventually affecting most of Britain Tue 6th before HP from the SW forms a broad ridge covering Britain Thu 8th persisting for a week before another LP appears near Iceland. 

ECM - much as GFS though as next week's LP moves to the NE it leaves a trough lingering over Britain for a day or so. The ex-hurricane is off the US coast Wed 7th but doesn't show on GFS

GEM - not unlike GFS but moves the LP down to C Britain Tue 6th as it fills

GEFS - The current warmth in the S disappears by Sat 3rd to be followed everywhere by a week of temps near or slightly below norm, before recovering slightly. Rain starting Thu 1st, heaviest in the S then and more generally around Tue 6th, but no very large amounts anywhere nor any prolonged dry periods.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Saint Snow
29 July 2024 10:26:12


Anyway, to get back on topic, first hints from all 3 that the low may not be as horrible as has been showing over the past few days. Please make it happen!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




A bit of a reversion to the worst case scenario this morning.

The stinker of a low for this weekend and through next week is already forming in some unusually cold (for the time of year) air between the west coast of Greenland and NE Canada. As it starts to trundle towards us, the models show a separate, small low spawning much further south, over Nova Scotia, and as that moves eastwards, it gets caught up in the orbit of the major low. It's this secondary low that reaches much further south, creating a kind of trailing front.

Arse.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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