so many changes thou u have to question even each opp run at mo even ecm mean up and down like crazy let alone each model agreeement seems to have flu and bad head trying to sort that energy into scadi, anyway we have many days of good weather to come some days very hot in south. and set fair in the reliable we good summer days to come.

The 30s and 31s have gone though. Starting to think we won't get a 30C from this spell after all.

I'm not so sure - GFS has a tendency to undercook temperatures, as was the case yesterday and today, by a very significant margin for some areas, plus the fact that it's just one run and will inevitably be different come the 18z. I think 30C is still possible in Yorkshire on Friday (our local weather has mentioned 30C, they showed 27C and said themselves that it was a very conservative estimate), and then again on Saturday in the South.

gm also has a very very bad head tonight trying to sort energy out

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=1

it makes a lot of difference with what we all get.

Genius! 

In the meantime, it looks to remain extremely summery, and well above average. 

Do you mean IYBY Rob?

30c was recorded at S Newington during the weekend.

30c last weekend here Marcus but nowt said,,,  posted in heatwave thread

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38417.png

HP stays in charge throughout

Was it?! The Met did not mention it.

AFAIK the maximum official temp this year so far is 29.7C at Bournemouth (Hurn) on Sunday.

That is what the Met Office are saying anyway:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=last24hours&fcTime=1373238000

If you meant South Newington, I can't see anything close to 30C over the weekend here: http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/99166.html

I will get the guys name, he sends his data into the met, S Newington was on one of the Beebs forecasts last winter .

Big flip from the 6z. The 12z keeps it warm and dry for 16 days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

yes with nao and ao in neutral for the next 10 days major change seems unlikely . just the threat of showers saturday from a shortwave trough and again monday-tuesday before the azores ridge builds again. just the outside chance of the ridge not building and troughs toppling over and becoming cooler and more unsettled

Hi folks. A little late but here is the latest report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for this evening Tuesday July 9th 2013.

All models show the weather remaining set fair for the following 4-5 days as High pressure controls the UK weather positioned close to the NW and later West of the UK with a ridge maintained over Southern Britain. A few weak troughs will bring an increase of cloud at times tomorrow with somewhat lower temperatures and again on Saturday when an odd heavy shower could be sparked. It's not until we move into next week when some changes begin to take shape.

GFS shows next week as a largely settled affair too with High pressure down to the SW building back North and NE later in the week with fine and warm conditions for all following somewhat cooler conditions with the odd shower here and there for a time in the North and East. Late in the run little changes with only the end frame showing any sign of any significant change in the North and West with a cold front knocking on the door to the West.

The GFS Ensembles show good support from most members of  High pressure never being far away from UK shores either to the West or NW with fine and dry weather dominant though not as warm as currently with any rainfall restricted to more Northern areas.

The Jet Stream is show to sink South from Northern waters in four or five days time to a position over the UK before it tends to weaken and dissipate later.

UKMO tonight continues to look more changeable at the close of it's run with a trough crossing East over Britain next Monday with a band of rain likely followed by clearer and more showery weather and probably rather fresher air too for a while.

GEM tonight shows a cooler NW flow too early next week before High pressure to the SW builds back later in the week with dry and warmer weather returning to most by the end of the week.

NAVGEM tonight shows a nose of High pressure close to the SW over the weekend and start of next week ridging North later. the UK would lie in a slack Northerly flow with a lot of dry and fine weather with the odd thundery shower just about possible too for a time.

ECM keeps High pressure down to the SW with the best of the conditions always here while areas further to the North and East would see cloudier skies, certainly more so than of late with the chance of a little rain too at times as weak fronts pass SE through the UK. Though still quite warm at times in the south and west average temperatures look more likely in the North and East especially under the cloudy periods.

In Summary tonight the models seem to be firming up on a trend to less hot conditions for many areas from the start of next week. The weather never looks like turning desperately cool or wet with just a gentle moderation of temperatures towards levels close to or just above the average in the South next week and still rather warm at times in the SW. The average temperatures of the North and East could be accompanied by occasional rain as weak fronts drift SE in the general NW flow. 

Oh dear, looks like the days of this warm settled spell are well and truly numbered. Make the most of the next five days people!

Nothing particularly unsettled on the horizon. For me, perfect summer weather, temps around 20-22C with sunny spells, while admitedly always a bit more unsettled further north.

Don't think people should get hung up on specifics at this range. The next week is looking dry, sunny and warm or very warm.

After that, it MAY moderate slightly, but equally, it may not.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this spell is extended beyond 7-10 days, but time will tell.

Thanks Martin. Looks pretty decent generally speaking, and certainly couldn't be more different what we were getting a year ago, as Matty has alluded to above.

Not really. The Met Office extended outlook suggest fine, settled warm weather over the bulk of the country until at least early August. That's four weeks of good summer weather. Hardly anything to complain about! 

Indeed Matty. The only time last summer that we had anything close to as good as this in my area was in the first full week of August, and unfortunately once that ended the weather was as wet and miserable as it had been before. Utterly dire.

Hear hear Matty. The synoptics over the next 10-14 days are a million miles away from the bilge we have endured in recent years.

A spell of very pleasant mid-summer weather coming up pretty much as far as the eye can see.

Certainly no signs of an imminent deluge....and long may that continue.

Even in the best summers, we have spells of rain and cooler conditions, and we still have 3 weeks of July, the whole of August, and the best part of September which are all more than capable of delivering summer weather.

i hope the pendulum swings back again tomorrow. the ecm ens mean is not good in fi. however, i think naefs may look a bit better (though i cant see gem 12z ens so have no idea how much they may dilute the decent looking gefs).

It shows warm weather persisting, with possible showers around, but certainly nothing terrible.