Hi folks. A little late but here is the latest report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for this evening Tuesday July 9th 2013.
All models show the weather remaining set fair for the following 4-5 days as High pressure controls the UK weather positioned close to the NW and later West of the UK with a ridge maintained over Southern Britain. A few weak troughs will bring an increase of cloud at times tomorrow with somewhat lower temperatures and again on Saturday when an odd heavy shower could be sparked. It's not until we move into next week when some changes begin to take shape.
GFS shows next week as a largely settled affair too with High pressure down to the SW building back North and NE later in the week with fine and warm conditions for all following somewhat cooler conditions with the odd shower here and there for a time in the North and East. Late in the run little changes with only the end frame showing any sign of any significant change in the North and West with a cold front knocking on the door to the West.
The GFS Ensembles show good support from most members of High pressure never being far away from UK shores either to the West or NW with fine and dry weather dominant though not as warm as currently with any rainfall restricted to more Northern areas.
The Jet Stream is show to sink South from Northern waters in four or five days time to a position over the UK before it tends to weaken and dissipate later.
UKMO tonight continues to look more changeable at the close of it's run with a trough crossing East over Britain next Monday with a band of rain likely followed by clearer and more showery weather and probably rather fresher air too for a while.
GEM tonight shows a cooler NW flow too early next week before High pressure to the SW builds back later in the week with dry and warmer weather returning to most by the end of the week.
NAVGEM tonight shows a nose of High pressure close to the SW over the weekend and start of next week ridging North later. the UK would lie in a slack Northerly flow with a lot of dry and fine weather with the odd thundery shower just about possible too for a time.
ECM keeps High pressure down to the SW with the best of the conditions always here while areas further to the North and East would see cloudier skies, certainly more so than of late with the chance of a little rain too at times as weak fronts pass SE through the UK. Though still quite warm at times in the south and west average temperatures look more likely in the North and East especially under the cloudy periods.
In Summary tonight the models seem to be firming up on a trend to less hot conditions for many areas from the start of next week. The weather never looks like turning desperately cool or wet with just a gentle moderation of temperatures towards levels close to or just above the average in the South next week and still rather warm at times in the SW. The average temperatures of the North and East could be accompanied by occasional rain as weak fronts drift SE in the general NW flow.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY