For the BH, it looks like the best we can reasonably hope for is either a very slack trough or one tracking just to the south of the UK.
Either of those still brings some showers, slow moving in the former case.
I see it as a situation where changes in the westerly momentum will have big impacts, so it's still possible that the trough could end up stalling more to the SW as per the 12z UKMO run.
ECM is having none of the cut-off low possibility, instead keeping the system tied in with the westerlies and rushing it through, so leaving us with a NW flow on Monday with the HP ridge starting to build in from the west - probably showery in many places, and frankly I'd rather have the GFS version, which is nice and warm in between the showers.
We all know that the models can have a mare with these HP cells to the NE, so it would not be an act of insanity to hope for the HP to hold it's ground better and/or be a stronger feature. Unfortunately, it's the recent trend towards the HP being less resilliant that makes it seem a lot less likely this time around.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser