I know this is GFS - I've looked at ECM as  well.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

As to the Bank Holiday. Hmmm

 

 

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Doesn't look too bad to me for the time of year. Average to above for many.

 

This suggests not

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/08/18/basis12/euro/prec/13082406_1812.gif

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I guess that all those of us that are hoping for another settled spell are hoping that the models are overcooking the low to the SW/S of England next weekend and that the High to the NE of Scotland can hold on for longer. Even is that low does come to pass and does interrupt things briefly, we can but hope that the Azores High ridges in again from the west afterwards as indicated on the ECM 12z run. That model also went for a reinforcement of the high from the west in both this morning's and last night's runs, so let's hope that theme is maintained tomorrow and the aformetioned low is downgraded.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

 

Unsettled do you think ?

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png

 

Friday and Saturday are back to looking very warm /hot

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Ukmo on its own this morning with a mostly fine, warm weekend but ECM and gfs both bring a shallow low across the UK Saturday and Sunday. Nowhere is it a write off weekend but its not a return to the July heat wave either, even at +120 much uncertainty still exists.

Andy

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Hi folks a new working week and what do the models have in store for us this and next week taking in the Bank Holiday weekend along the way.

All models show High pressure building across Southern and Eastern areas over the next 48 hours with some fine weather developing with sunny spells and light winds. The North and West lie under the path of a depression moving NE into Scotland with some rain later tomorrow and into Wednesday. The low then fills under the airflow of the High with much of the rain dying away but leaving a legacy of quite a lot of cloud for a time across the UK on Wednesday into Thursday with maybe an odd shower. By Friday the models diversify somewhat with the trend for rain on troughs to move in from the SW the strongest likely event.

GFS shows Low pressure over Ireland by Friday drifting slowly SE over the Bank Holiday weekend with showers or outbreaks of rain across Southern and central areas heavy at times. Scotland may miss the worst of this. Thereafter a spell of West and NW winds cover the UK with average temperatures and occasional outbreaks of rain, these more likely in the North but not exclusively so. The South would see the lengthiest dry and bright periods with High pressure out to the SW.

The GFS Ensembles are now all keen to show an end to the warmth on the 24th across the South being replaced by cooler and more changeable conditions with rain at times thereon. However, it is the North who will see the largest rainfall totals overall through the run with Southern areas seeing some dry and bright spells next week with temperatures close to normal at least.

The Jet Stream shows the flow crossing Northern France currently moving North of the UK over the next few days before becoming weak and diffuse for some time. There is some indication of an Autumnal strengthening of the flow towards the end of the forecast period the position of which is undecided at the moment.

UKMO this morning shows a weak trough lying across the UK next weekend. There would be plenty of dry and bright weather about when it will feel warm and humid but showers are likely too, heavy, slow moving and possibly thundery in places.

GEM makes rather less of the weekend unsettled weather with no real pattern shift away from what we have at present with High pressure down to the SW and a NW flow over the UK. this would result in largely dry conditions in the South although the warmth of later this week would cease as temperatures return to normal. The North would see the biggest chance of rain or showers from depressions to the North.

NAVGEM is following the GFS route today with Low pressure over Ireland at the weekend slipping SE towards the English Channel with Southern and Central areas seeing outbreaks of rain or showers at the weekend while the North close to a ridge stay largely dry and bright.

ECM takes the energy across the UK at the weekend and out into the North Sea where it becomes slow moving and close enough to maintain a cool NW flow down over the UK with some heavy and thundery daytime showers and maybe thunderstorms.

In Summary it looks like the warm spell is fast becoming a warm snap and restricted more towards the SE of Britain. Low pressure scuppers the chances for Northern regions to enjoy any warmth as it moves in late tomorrow and Wednesday with plenty of cloud cover if not rainfall. Then late in the week Low pressure from the West or SW looks like trundling over or just to the South of the UK at the weekend raising the prospect of a showery weekend at best in the South. Longer term it looks like the basic pattern we have seen a lot of this summer of High pressure to the SW and Low to the North will drag down NW winds which pleasant in any sunshine will feel rather cool in exposure with showers or occasional rain, most likely towards the North. 

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More gloom and doom but thanks Martin!
In other words more of the same as we have had for much of August.
The BBC London Weather service has implied dry and sunny and increasingly warm for the end of the week suggesting perhaps that this southern low make track further south with less of a risk of rain...?

Thanks Martin...

The BBC Show a period of possibly 10 days of dry but cloudy weather.Local MET Office has showers breaking out Friday.6-30 Day text forecast shows a possible mixed bag for the BanK Holidy Weekend.. 

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Can anyone say why, since the BBC employs the MetO and should therefore be working off the same model, how it is that the two forecasts should differ? One working off the 00Z and the other off the 12Z, and a delay in update, perhaps? And thus presumably the most recently updated is the MetO?

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The B/H weekend is by no means clear-cut at this stage and I still think many should get away with a half-decent spell.

The differences in forecast merely reflect the uncertainty and one shouldn't read too much into it IMO.

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Sum up the runs this morning, its a changeable outlook.

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Much better 6z.

The high pressure stays firm and the low stalls to our west allowing a nice plume.

Would be very warm and humid with showers/thunderstorms in the west but mostly dry further east.

I think that run would be rather wetter than you think, with only NE Scotland really escaping the chance of showers or longer spells of rain on Sunday/Monday.

Plenty of time for more corrections during the week though.

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GFS squeezes in a warm weekend but even on that model it's then rapidly downhill with northwesterly winds and temperatures high teens at best by midweek. ECM wants to bring in an early blast from the north, horrible stuff for August: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

 

And yet the media are still on the "warm and fine till the end of the month" bandwagon, very out of date.

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Last week, CFS was showing a sub-zero CET January 2014.... Now it's mild-SWs all the way....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=4&code=0&carte=0&mode=7&run=10

2013/14 Winter is over .... Roll on 2014/15.

Andrew

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Gav's fault !

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December looks pretty chilly (in the south) and March rather frigid though!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/cfs-1-3-2014.png?12 

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Not so bad now.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

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UKMO 12Z on Wetterzentrale:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Looks like high pressure trying to return from the west by Sunday.

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Next week looks drier than average for most.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 

Warmer than average for most.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png

 

Back to heat for the weekend

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