Torrential downpours and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow 5live weather with a risk of local flooding.

A great way to see out late summer IMO!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

I'm interpreting the first CF as an upper feature which is why things could get very lively with hot air at the surface and reducing uppers

That is my interpretation too Dave.

I can imagine it to be a very convective but explosive situation if the potential is realised. Convective rainfall is never modelled too well by any of the precipitation models and that is why the most show the heaviest rainfall reserved for tomorrow in assocition with the second cold front.

Tonight has 'interesting' written all over it as the heat low pushing NW'wards from France collides with the upper cold front moving in from the west. 

Its been a really boring summer so far so looking forward to tomorrows action before it gets boring again next week!

A rather complex set-up agreed. We have three features of note - an upper boundary marking the transition to cooler 850s ahead of the main surface CF (not a huge change, but 500hPa ts drop from -13 to -19 across this boundary), then a pool or plume of very high theta-e air bubbling up from France ahead of the first boundary.
The WRF convective ppn model is a reasonable represenative of what may occur:

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=NW&section=precip&forecast=Precip&time=33#model

I would expect convective potential to be greatest overnight in the SE, then extending into eastern counties during Saturday as the second front stalls and curves back SWwards. The greatest rainfall amounts could be around Lincolnshire/Suffolk.
Storm potential is more difficult to quantify, but given parameters the risk for heavy thunderstorms certainly exists from the SE up across EA later.

Looks like I'm in the firing line for tonight and tomorrow, however 99% of the time when I'm in the firing line I end up with nothing.

blimey ,you mean to say the SE proper (ie: say bournemouth to the wash)  like old skool days . or the far tip of SE Kent as they do the usual trot off and give the usual suspects (NE France ,Low countries) a cracking display ?

hi everyone I been reading the weather  reports for 2 years now and I thought of joining today getting into the great action everyone seems to be having on here. does anyone know where will the best place for the best storm for tonight.

Welcome to the forum.
You might be quite well placed for a storm in the early hours as the plume ahead of the trough destabilizes, but I suspect the main action on Saturday will be further inland across the SE and EA.

[quote=Arcus;526074]Focus this afternoon and evening for Severe potential is probably Yorks into NE England and SE Scotland, although there is some disagreement on the models as to how things will develop. Reflected in the latest update on the Met's Severe Wanrings: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html[/quote]

unbelievable , yet again the usual places get the action , this is beginning to get on my Bristols ....cue Matty

thank you nsrobins  i really hope this set up will produce storms like the  80's to 90's kind of storms, intead of dying over the channel like they have been recently  

thanks idj20 nice user name

i know what u r taking about the storms like the seasons have move two or three months forward lol or is it just myself think that.

i remember in the 80's when june july and course august arrived most of the storms did, well i was young then so my memory was'nt that great lol. 

hi everyone I been reading the weather reports for 2 years now and I thought of joining today getting into the great action everyone seems to be having on here. does anyone know where will the best place for the best storm for tonight.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Welcome to the forum. You might be quite well placed for a storm in the early hours as the plume ahead of the trough destabilizes, but I suspect the main action on Saturday will be further inland across the SEand EA.

Originally Posted by: stormwatcher 

thank you nsrobins ireally hopethis set up will produce stormslike the 80's to 90's kind of storms, intead of dying over the channel likethey have been recently

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Welcome to the mad house. [sn_bsmil] It is now coming up to the time of the year where the sea surface temperature around the south east coastal area are at it's warmest so it should have the effect of encouraging thundery-type conditions rather than killing them off under this kind of unstable-like situation. At least that's what I think as I do tend to experience the best thundery activity in August though to October around here.

Originally Posted by: stormwatcher 

 

thanks idj20 nice user name

i know what u r taking about the storms like the seasons have move two or three months forward lol or is it just myself think that.

i remember in the 80's when june july and course august arrived most of the storms did, well i was young then so my memory was'nt that great lol. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 It's my initals and the 20 is my house number.

But indeed, I'm sure there has been a shift/change in storm activity at least for around here in the past decade. The last proper thundery-type summer was 2009 - and it went dead since then but I've had a bit more luck so far this Summer (July 21st).

Originally Posted by: stormwatcher 

i remeber your photos or was somebody else photos they were fantastic i miss out on the 21st july but i did watch the storm coming up the channel on the radar then around 1am on that day i saw the lightling in the channel from my window its was like every second there was a flash of lightling . i hope to see something like that tonoght its has begun to get very humid its around 25c in my flat with no air con phew . i do think the midlands homegrown showers and thunder storms shall i say are better than what we southerns get now days lol

Storm approaching the Cornish coast near the Devon border

Feeling properly plumey now with a continental miky haze, a display of altocumulus an air temperature of 24c with a dewpoint of 18c.

It's developing 'that feel'

very cloudy overcast no sun  also very humid dry air

Been raining here the past 45 mins or so but nothing heavy, just dampened the ground, been a warm feeling day even with the cloud cover. Max was 21.2C

Bingo. Rumbles of thunder off to the NE.

What are the chances of storm activity around these parts tonight and tomorrow do you think? Is there likely to be any or is it alln going to be in the east?