Good morning everyone. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 1st 2013.
All models show the start of October the same as September left off with a warm and moist SE flow covering the UK. Troughs of low pressure from a Low to the West of the UK will continue to swing slowly NE across Britain weakening substantially as they do so. Rain could be heavy in the SW but lighter and more intermittent and occasional elsewhere. On Thursday it still looks a more organised and potentially heavy period of rain will move North across all areas before a change to fresher and cleaner air arrives from the West on Friday reaching all but Scotland through the day. Saturday then sees England and Wales dry and bright with sunny spells in the South and East with more cloudy weather in the NW with some rain or showers still.
GFS then shows the rest of the run with changeable conditions but with a lot of dry weather to be enjoyed. Northern and Western areas are shown to be prone to be cloudy at times with outbreaks of rain and fresh SW winds as lows and troughs swing by from the West while the South and East see much less rain and long dry periods under high pressure. Temperatures will sometimes be warm especially early next week and again late in the run though it will become cooler for a time perhaps with fog at night inland.
UKMO shows High pressure close to SE England early next week with light winds for all and dry and bright weather for most areas away from the far NW where more cloud, a slightly fresher SW breeze could give rise to a little rain here at times.
GEM keeps High pressure close enough to South and SE Britain to ward off most troughs and Low pressure areas meaning a largely dry and sometimes bright and warm spell is likely to be maintained in the South and East of England and Wales while Northern and Western Britain keep more cloud and occasional rain but even here some drier, brighter and mild spells are shown.
NAVGEM too shows a High pressure ridged across the UK from the East early next week with fine and dry conditions likely with just the far NW at risk of any rain. Fog and mist overnight could be an issue though in this profile with rather a lot of cloud at times trapped in the airflow so moderately warm conditions rather than anything exceptionally warm looks most likely.
ECM has reduced it's exceptionally high uppers shown in its midday offering yesterday. Nevertheless High pressure still arrives at the weekend and extends through next week with just a brief cloudy blip midweek when a little rain is possible, chiefly towards the North and West. Temperatures would remain very respectable through the period with no risk of frost and in fact temperatures could rise further by the end of the run as a warm Continental South or SE flow wafts up from Southern Europe late next week.
The GFS Ensembles continue to show nothing remotely very wet or windy in the next two weeks with a lot of dry and warm weather in the South after this week. The North as usual do see some rain and occasional very breezy conditions but nowhere looks like experiencing anything nasty beyond this week with frost looking very unlikely as is widespread fog. Gales look very unlikely too away from the far NW.
The Jet Stream blowing to the South of the UK currently migrates North later in the weekend following a period when it falls slack and diffuse. It then settles in a NE direction across or just to the NW of Scotland next week with the UK remaining very much on the mild side.
In Summary it seems the persistence of High pressure which has dominated the Summer to the SW and latterly to the East and now expected to the SE will continue to rule the roost across the UK in the foreseeable future keeping the UK locked in a mild and sometimes warm South or SW flow with it's close proximity keeping any meaningful rain beyond this week well away from most of the UK. With High pressure seemingly not allowing the Jet Stream South very much after this week it means that a warm Autumn could well be on the cards unless the pattern breaks soon and that looks unlikely at the moment as the Atlantic looks quite weak for this time of the year with the development of major storm systems looking relatively few at the moment and in any event steered away North by strong High pressure areas at Southerly latitudes.
Transcript taken from: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset