Ian Ferguson's thoughts just posted on NW
V good agreement with UKMO-GM and JMA much more developmental too (a model we rate highly). The consistent theme of UKMO-GM, MOGREPS & sufficient support from EC ENS & other model ensembles was tipping-point for warnings issued today. Any further such continuity may well warrant upgrade beyond current warning tiers but not there yet. As you might imagine we're discussing little else at work (other than the rain tonight)...
You can interpret that yourselves, but whichever way you read the data and analysis this evening, things have taken a turn for the worst.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins