Now IDJ, this is your chance to make a TWO cartoon.....it would look something like this: Matty chasing a dirty nappy down the street, bits of baby shite flying out everywhere, wheelie bins toppling in front of him, while he shouts at passers by who are clinging for their lives to lamposts "it's still no fecking hurricane you morons, it's just got very dirty air!"

Originally Posted by: idj20 

You're never going to forget that one are you?

That was about 9 years ago as well

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

There you go, just a quick sketch . . .

 

 

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 

Brill

which one is Matty

He's the one smelling of baby shite!

Nice one Ian

Great sketch Ian, will keep me grinning periodically for a little while I'm sure

Well whatever happens,(presuming it comes mon morning) at least the tide will be going out Down here. High tide at about 6am for Dover.

Mark

Hythe

Kent 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

look close 2 night almost in bed

fax tiny bit furter east and south before she comes up

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

if u look at 72 and 96 yesterday thats what my projectors tells me anyway.

A quick scan of the 12Z output, and I'd say the situation has taken a turn for the worse this evening.
Both GFS an ECM have taken a slight northward tilt on track, indicative of a system that is undergoing rapid cyclogensis.

The low continues to deepen on exit into the N Sea. It looks very likely now that many areas of the south and east will be affected by very strong winds with gusts up to 70mph near the S and SE coasts early Mon am.
Should the focus of baroclinity phase with a dry intrusion on the exit streak of what os a very strong upper flow, the potential for gusts of 80 to 90mph exist. For a wide area with trees in full leaf, the effects could be very serious indeed.

It would be useful at this stage to limit posts in this thread to direct information and analysis of this event. Mods?

And the japs does not deepen on exit all to play for hope it changes and trends south

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=96&mode=1 

It struck me as unusual that the Radio and TV forecasts are giving such early warnings about the storm on Monday.  I'm keeping my eye on this thread to see what you experts have to say about it. 

Good thing is those really strong gusts dont last that long

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=uv95&HH=96&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Will update shortly - all fax in time series and a decent size for iphone

Will would never use such an annoying term. Just checked and his text is 'There is also a small risk of a line of tornadoes'
Thought so. There is no such thing as a mini tornado, in the same way there is no mini road or mini cloud

Ian Ferguson's thoughts just posted on NW

V good agreement with UKMO-GM and JMA much more developmental too (a model we rate highly).  The consistent theme of UKMO-GM, MOGREPS & sufficient support from EC ENS & other model ensembles was tipping-point for warnings issued today. Any further such continuity may well warrant upgrade beyond current warning tiers but not there yet. As you might imagine we're discussing little else at work (other than the rain tonight)...

You can interpret that yourselves, but whichever way you read the data and analysis this evening, things have taken a turn for the worst.

The latest 96 hour FAX.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif 

964mb low, looks like it may be unchanged from the UKMO output at first glance.

Hope this is the start of the downgrades, and no problem with the Met Office issuing the warnings....

Sorry but damaging winds doesn't float my boat and never have done....So I hope this continues to downgrade in the morning.

I truly despair at how people can cream their jeans over an event such as this. I have a large tree at the front that's big enough to fall on my house. I have a large tree at the back that's also big enough to fall on my house. I'd like to keep my house intact, thank you very much.

Don't worry this storm has been hyped up more than any I can remember yet it's track is still uncertain.

But is anyone really? With the greatest of respect, this is not Netweather.

It is a fine line we tread between genuine interest in the mechanisms of severe weather and a sometimes borderline fascination for it's impact. It goes with the territory so to speak. It would you have to admit be a very uninspiring chat forum if all we talked about was drizzle and fairly mild temperatures. And if that interests you may I suggest something I believe is known as Facebook LOL.

I genuinely don't harbour an ounce of guilt by saying I am fascinated by severe weather events, because there is zero I or anyone can do to stop or change them, but what we can do is study and learn and embrace them whilst of course ackowledging that they are capable of destruction and tragedy.

This is not a forecast for Monday by the way.