theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
26 October 2013 06:59:54

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs601.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs631.gif


Lunchtime Monday will be rough that's for sure

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nickl
26 October 2013 07:20:15

the models (with the exception of gem) are not dropping the central pressure of the feature as it crosses the uk. as i understand it, a sting jet is more likely if pressure is dropping fast. with this in mind, i suggest things are loooking a little less scary. however, the little fella has barely cleared his throat way to our sw so we could easily find the 12z's changing the empahasiss a tad. more concerned with the things steve mentioned above (rush hour/wet ground/trees still in leaf) rather than the absolute wind speeds which may not end up so impressive. the se channel coasts do not look the place to be on monday!


EDIT: looking at the icelandic site, ecm also deepens the fella as it crosses the uk. as i underrtstand it, both ecm and gem offer the best resolution of the global models below T48 so the possibility of a sting jet to the s/sw of the depression as it tracks ne remain with potential 100mph+ gusts.

KevBrads1
26 October 2013 07:32:07
ECM shows tightly packed isobars to the south of that low

38-43mph


http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec 
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
nsrobins
26 October 2013 07:33:03

The storm is born, now as a shallow low in the far W Atlantic.
Track the progress of Jude in hourly steps here:

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2013102607&size=standard&lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur


 


No significant change in track or intensity this morning, perhaps another delay in timing, with the added spice of potential rear flank severe gales on it's western margin as it moves away Mon pm.


I'll be in later to see what's going on but I have issued warnings to my forecast group that anything that involves travelling or working outdoors on Mon morning should be avoided.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
blaggers1968
26 October 2013 07:33:50
I was at Reading Uni for both the '87 and Burns day storms. The '87 seemed more turbulent and chaotic and was much worse to the far SE. The Burns day storm was worse (than '87) in Reading with many gusts over 70mph, peaking in early afternoon at 88mph. This one doesn't seem to be in the same category at present, and where I am now (S.Devon) we have had several gusts over 70 mph in the last 10 yrs. The gusts forecast looks to be predicting 60-65mph in our vicinity which would be damaging but nowhere near the Burns day values. The worst gale I have noted recently was in November 2009 with a 10-min average wind speed of 48mph (0905-0915, 14th Nov) and a gust of 69mph in the same time period.
idj20
26 October 2013 07:53:16


Realisation is now setting in that this is going to be a nasty one. Time to seriously start thinking about tying down all unsecured assets in the garden etc.


I can see nothing in this mornings output to suggest ' a downgrade' in intensity. 


If anything the GFS continues to re-align with its earlier thougths of a daytime storm now affecting much of southern and SE Britain.


I am sure a RED warning will be issued at some point should the models firm up on this being a storm that rips through the heart of southern Britain at morning rush hour on the 28th. Anything in the 70-80mph will cause a lot of problems. There are trees in leaf, we have had nearly 100mm of rain in recent weeks meaning the ground is wet and there are a lot of old stock in the form of trees that havent been blown over by strong gales in recent years. 


Ian..I would like to say that you will be protected by the hill with the scary looking turreted house on the top..analysis however suggests that for at least the first 3 or 4 hours the direction of this wind will be SSW. You need a WSW'ly to be somewhat protected from this.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Next time I start moaning about the lack of any real interesting weather, you are welcome to come round to my house and give me a boot up the jacksie.
  However, the one saving grace is that the peak of the storm will coincide with a low neap tide so there shouldn't be any flooding issues on prone low-lying coastal areas, nor will there be any danger of sea defences being breached, so at least we shouldn't have to contend with that on top of everything else.

Folkestone Harbour. 
radiohead
26 October 2013 07:58:25

The good news this morning is that it seems there have been no further upgrades on the models overnight, with the exception of the GEM which has a 962mb low and very strong sustained winds for inland areas.


http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_eur_fr_00/UV_PN_UU_VV_054_12000.gif 

Matty H
26 October 2013 08:05:11
I'm quietly confident the worst is going to miss here. All the current output has the centre of the storm passing over here with the worst of the winds to the south. It shouldn't be too bad at all here, although it wouldn't take too much of a shift north to change that [sn_dead]

One thing is looking for sure - many other southern and south east areas are looking like getting a hammering. Uggghh [sn_dead]
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
idj20
26 October 2013 08:09:37

I'm quietly confident the worst is going to miss here. All the current output has the centre of the storm passing over here with the worst of the winds to the south. It shouldn't be too bad at all here, although it wouldn't take too much of a shift north to change that Dead

One thing is looking for sure - many other southern and south east areas are looking like getting a hammering. Uggghh Dead

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



 Indeed.

Never have I been so glued to the model outputs in alll my life!

As much as it is making me nervous (as if you can't tell by now), at the same time it is making for an excellent learning tool (understanding the formation of sting jets, how low pressures interacts with jet streams, the number crunching by the various models, etc, etc), not to mention keeping me occupied as I watch how things does progress.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Matty H
26 October 2013 08:12:11

I'm quietly confident the worst is going to miss here. All the current output has the centre of the storm passing over here with the worst of the winds to the south. It shouldn't be too bad at all here, although it wouldn't take too much of a shift north to change that Dead

One thing is looking for sure - many other southern and south east areas are looking like getting a hammering. Uggghh Dead

Originally Posted by: idj20 



 Indeed.

Never have I been so glued to the model outputs in alll my life!

As much as it is making me nervous (as if you can't tell by now), at the same time it is making for an excellent learning tool (understanding the formation of sting jets, how low pressures interacts with jet streams, etc, etc), not to mention keeping me occupied! 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



There seems to be a trend to slightly delay this thing over the last 24-36 hours. One would hope that this would aid earlier development out at sea and reduce the chance of a sting jet over land. Straw grasping maybe.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
idj20
26 October 2013 08:16:51


I'm quietly confident the worst is going to miss here. All the current output has the centre of the storm passing over here with the worst of the winds to the south. It shouldn't be too bad at all here, although it wouldn't take too much of a shift north to change that Dead

One thing is looking for sure - many other southern and south east areas are looking like getting a hammering. Uggghh Dead

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



 Indeed.

Never have I been so glued to the model outputs in alll my life!

As much as it is making me nervous (as if you can't tell by now), at the same time it is making for an excellent learning tool (understanding the formation of sting jets, how low pressures interacts with jet streams, etc, etc), not to mention keeping me occupied! 


Originally Posted by: idj20 



There seems to be a trend to slightly delay this thing over the last 24-36 hours. One would hope that this would aid earlier development out at sea and reduce the chance of a sting jet over land. Straw grasping maybe.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Indeed, Matty. Lots of ifs and buts and what abouts. I guess all we can do is watch and hope as the whole thing unfolds . . . not that it would make the slightiest difference to the final outcome.
  The latest outputs seems to show sustained gale/storm force winds lasting for most of Monday over here before abating by late afternoon time, more like a day time event rather than during the night which makes a change!

Folkestone Harbour. 
Matty H
26 October 2013 08:17:00
Fergusson now twatting about gusts of 50 to 60mph for here. That will cause minimal issues thank god.

Further south is a different issue.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
sizzle
26 October 2013 08:24:35

it seems im going to get some unpleasent weather monday morning, traveling into london, early hours, tho once the storm has cleared it seems tuesday to thursday is going to be dry and sunny but still windy, unless that will change. i love a storm, but cant beat snow storms, blizzards,.winter cold,


can i say thankyou to everyone who posts here thru out the year gibby , gavin P mods and brian for making the forum the best one the net,  thanks guys,

doctormog
26 October 2013 08:27:10
This link will hopefully be of use when tracking the development of the storm (currently "being born")

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=standard 

As other mention, it's still a rather worrying picture for many southern parts on this morning's output. I hate strong winds and sympathise with any homeowner in the path of this system's strongest winds. It's better to take preparations where you can in advance and not need them than to repair things afterwards. So my advice would be as the amber warning suggests, be prepared. Don't have anything that could blow around or away outside if you can help it.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
stormwatcher
26 October 2013 08:33:18

morning all


 


my flat is along the south coast i can see the sea and the downs but there's are flats right along the sea front mostly retirement flats i do hope they will be all right hopely. the flats along the coast are nearly new flats btw my flat is all ready shaking with this gusty wind . i'm on the top floor .  

KevBrads1
26 October 2013 08:47:11
Can anyone recall so much speculation and talk over a potential severe gale event? I remember the March 2008 storm, the media and speculation over that. It actually turned out for most areas, a bit of a flop away from the far south because despite the intensity of the low it wasn't compact.
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
radiohead
26 October 2013 08:48:36

It's not a storm, it's a "Killer, Megastorm!"

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/347103/Killer-Megastorm-to-batter-Britain-on-Monday-Met-Office-EXTENDS-weather-warning

RollEyes

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


I love how "EXTENDS" warrants all caps in the headline yet "Killer Megastorm" doesn't.

bowser
26 October 2013 08:51:21


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/7/Record_wind_speed_-_13_February_1989.pdf 

Originally Posted by: ballogie 


 


I remember being amazed at the roof slates that were embeded in the roofs of cars off Union Street ! Min


 


Fit a nicht tha was. Slates were sheilin aff reefs like naebodies business. I fair thought wur lum was a goner like fan we bided in Bon Accord Street in i toon like, min


 


Cabrach Community Radio 109.8 on i dial and on Facebook. Sing Along


Originally Posted by: bowser 



Haha... Haven't given it a listen yet... Bit dinna need ti gang far ti hear at patter. Aberdeen has lost it's twang noo though.

Originally Posted by: ballogie 


 


Nivir at af aw. Once a toonser, aye a toonser



Aye, bit ower mony fowk in'i toon hae ess gypit spik (Aiberdeen = Abb-urr-deen). Files I hiv ti spik like at masel -in ma ain toon!!!
some faraway beach
26 October 2013 08:52:48

Let's hope it goes the same way as The Guardian's SUPER-DROUGHT of 2012.


http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/12/summer-drought-looms-for-england

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
micahel37
26 October 2013 09:10:38
This mornings updates to the met's warnings will be interesting
Polbeth, West Lothian 150m asl
Bugglesgate
26 October 2013 09:16:06

Fergusson now twatting about gusts of 50 to 60mph for here. That will cause minimal issues thank god.

Further south is a different issue.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


Roughly on the same "lattitude" as you Matty - Hopefully damage will be limited asround here as well - bit  it's all a bit "knife edge" at this range though.


WRT the storm being a "killer" - if it is as severe as is being "programmed", unfortunately it could well be.  Severe gales, sodden ground, trees in full leaf, and  the morning commute in  the congested South East don't mix well.


Personally I’ll be glad when Monday is over - My interest in weather is well and truly tempered by  the likelihood of mayhem, injury and  expensive repairs.


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Saint Snow
26 October 2013 09:23:21

Seeming like it could be a damp squid let-down.


Pity, would have enjoyed seeing a severe weather event unfold.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
NickR
26 October 2013 09:25:07


Seeming like it could be a damp squid let-down.


Pity, would have enjoyed seeing a severe weather event unfold.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


For your area, you mean?


I'm not sure it ever was going to hit the NW. 


For the S, though, this hardly looks like a damp squib (or, indeed, a damp squid  )... it looks pretty worrying. 

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Saint Snow
26 October 2013 09:26:40

My interest in weather is well and truly tempered by  the likelihood of mayhem


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


 


I obviously don't want to see people severely injured (or worse!), but I love the weather bringing absolute mayhem. It's a very welcome reminder that we cannot entirely sanitise the modern world.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
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