looks quite a bit further east ukmo to meDarren put me right if im wrong.
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
The MetO has been going for a cold blast for the past several few runs. It's still going for one, albeit with the core thrust of the cold further east on this run compared with the previous ones. It's still going to be cold on Saturday though if the MetO 12z veifies. GFS, meanwhile, has been up and down like a wh... err, a yoyo. One run you get 511 thicknesses over Kent, the next it's 530 thicknesses. This isn't a recent thing either, the various runs of the GFS op were doing the same yesterday - the only consistency with GFS at the moment is its inconsistency. Hence the use of ensembles. They've been consistent (both EPS and GEFS) over the past few days in that they show two distinct clusters for Friday and the weekend. One cluster (the majority in the 0z and 6z suites) is cold, the other is mild. The 12z operational GFS fits well with the mild cluster. I'm sure that the 12z GEFS ensembles (slowly rolling out now) will continue to show two distinct clusters. All this serves to show at the moment is how poorly the GFS (as opposed to GEFS) is handling the situation. MetO and ECM outputs have been far more consistent over the past couple of days, perhaps because we only get to see 12-hourly output for those (the 6z and 18z MetO runs seem to be no longer available on the public internet).
Originally Posted by: Retron