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Retron
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:07:04 PM

I do think the GFS gets a bad press because it is too generous with 4 full runs a day. Familiarity breeds contempt and all that, plus more runs, more chance of inter run variation. The Met O has corrected east thus far.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


We'll have to agree to disagree I think. It's my view that GFS has been the one bucking around like a bronco, never picking one solution - hence the use of GEFS. MetO has shown far greater inter-run consistency and even now it's moved things east, it still brings a longer cold period than the 12z op GFS does (although going on recent form the 18z GFS op will show a longer cold spell again! ).

Leysdown, north Kent
Polar Low
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:09:19 PM

Darren i was not having a pop I agree gfs has been all over the place and I agree with what you have said but I do start to think again when ukmo shifts the core of the cold that far east even if its one run.


 


if ecm shifts it further east then maybe we have a new trend tonight.


 


looks quite a bit further east ukmo to meDarren put me right if im wrong.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

The MetO has been going for a cold blast for the past several few runs. It's still going for one, albeit with the core thrust of the cold further east on this run compared with the previous ones. It's still going to be cold on Saturday though if the MetO 12z veifies. GFS, meanwhile, has been up and down like a wh... err, a yoyo. One run you get 511 thicknesses over Kent, the next it's 530 thicknesses. This isn't a recent thing either, the various runs of the GFS op were doing the same yesterday - the only consistency with GFS at the moment is its inconsistency. Hence the use of ensembles. They've been consistent (both EPS and GEFS) over the past few days in that they show two distinct clusters for Friday and the weekend. One cluster (the majority in the 0z and 6z suites) is cold, the other is mild. The 12z operational GFS fits well with the mild cluster. I'm sure that the 12z GEFS ensembles (slowly rolling out now) will continue to show two distinct clusters. All this serves to show at the moment is how poorly the GFS (as opposed to GEFS) is handling the situation. MetO and ECM outputs have been far more consistent over the past couple of days, perhaps because we only get to see 12-hourly output for those (the 6z and 18z MetO runs seem to be no longer available on the public internet).

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I've seen quite a few GFS runs, and, for the most part, it has had the high nudging in on Friday into Saturday. I do think the GFS gets a bad press because it is too generous with 4 full runs a day. Familiarity breeds contempt and all that, plus more runs, more chance of inter run variation. The Met O has corrected east thus far.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Polar Low
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:11:21 PM
Retron
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:13:54 PM


if ecm shifts it further east then maybe we have a new trend tonight.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


It could be the case, but the ensembles will help with that. I'm still expecting two distinct clusters from both EPS and GEFS - and here's why:


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5824/gens-22-1-102_zyx7.png


(GEFS spread at 102)

Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:16:03 PM


I do think the GFS gets a bad press because it is too generous with 4 full runs a day. Familiarity breeds contempt and all that, plus more runs, more chance of inter run variation. The Met O has corrected east thus far.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


We'll have to agree to disagree I think. It's my view that GFS has been the one bucking around like a bronco, never picking one solution - hence the use of GEFS. MetO has shown far greater inter-run consistency and even now it's moved things east, it still brings a longer cold period than the 12z op GFS does (although going on recent form the 18z GFS op will show a longer cold spell again! ).


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


The GFS allowed me to predict this cold spell 11 days ago! I think its doing a pretty good job in that respect. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Retron
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:18:26 PM
By 144 on the GEFS it's a pretty even split between mild (a la the op, at least this time around!) and cold (as per the 6z run, MetO, ECM etc).

Leysdown, north Kent
Polar Low
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:22:57 PM

yup just ran the lot


 


By 144 on the GEFS it's a pretty even split between mild (a la the op, at least this time around!) and cold (as per the 6z run, MetO, ECM etc).

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Hippydave
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:33:06 PM

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html


Assuming I've got the right link (and stats for the right part of the world) up to now ECM has handled the recent pattern 'better' than GFS. I've no idea just how much the minimal difference makes to our part of the world - suspect it's a case of very little in certain patterns and a lot in others


Not sure what the CMC model referenced is but thats been doing alright lately


In terms of the currently progged Northerly, won't be able to comment until it happens but subjectively to me GFS has come in line with ECM. GFS has at varying points downgraded or even removed a Northerly whilst ECM has been rock solid. Even now GFS is still the more progressive of the 'big 3' and moves the cold on more quickly. The frustrating thing is any slight correction East by ECM will no doubt have it derided and 'another victory for the GFS' will be trotted out when ECM would still have handled the broad pattern better than GFS has.


Of course the Northerly might disappear and then I guess you'd have to give some credit to the GFS

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
doctormog
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:34:56 PM

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html 
Assuming I've got the right link (and stats for the right part of the world) up to now ECM has handled the recent pattern 'better' than GFS. I've no idea just how much the minimal difference makes to our part of the world - suspect it's a case of very little in certain patterns and a lot in othersUserPostedImage
Not sure what the CMC model referenced is but thats been doing alright latelyUserPostedImage
In terms of the currently progged Northerly, won't be able to comment until it happens but subjectively to me GFS has come in line with ECM. GFS has at varying points downgraded or even removed a Northerly whilst ECM has been rock solid. Even now GFS is still the more progressive of the 'big 3' and moves the cold on more quickly. The frustrating thing is any slight correction East by ECM will no doubt have it derided and 'another victory for the GFS' will be trotted out when ECM would still have handled the broad pattern better than GFS has.
Of course the Northerly might disappear and then I guess you'd have to give some credit to the GFSUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 



The CMC is the Canadian GEM model if I recall correctly.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Karl Guille
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:39:59 PM


Are we on the verge of a decent cold spell wihout realising it???

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Short answer. No.
Long answer. Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



I wouldn't be quite so sure!! Take a look at some of the 12z GFS ensembles. About half of them are now playing with the idea of a Scandinavia High circa 216 - 264hrs!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:43:09 PM

Are we on the verge of a decent cold spell wihout realising it???

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

Short answer. No. Long answer. Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I wouldn't be quite so sure!! Take a look at some of the 12z GFS ensembles. About half of them are now playing with the idea of a Scandinavia High circa 216 - 264hrs!

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Which is why I asked the Question


Kieran will always say no , especially as he will be out of the UK

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
Sunday, December 1, 2013 5:56:46 PM

Well, now that the full set of 12z GEFS charts are out - nothing much has changed from the 6z in the mid term. There are still two distinct clusters although the odds are now roughly equal rather than being slightly biased towards cold. Longer term there's still a cold cluster although it's greatly diminished since the 6z output - there are still more cold runs long-term than the 0z though. At least we're not playing "Spot the Outlier" tonight, a game which was great fun a couple of days back (when the GFS op went from coldest to mildest in a single run!)

Leysdown, north Kent
Stormchaser
Sunday, December 1, 2013 6:43:37 PM

That UKMO run doesn't develop the shortwave nearly as much as previous runs or GFS and ECM... such criteria are used to place low confidence in a model run, so it's just a small possibility at this stage, but a worrying one nonetheless.


We have, though, seen an overall shift east in the cold plunge, which is a shame but not exactly unusual... 


GFS totally fails to dig the European energy south in the 5-7 day timeframe. The fact that it still produces a block to our NE is largely down to massive warm air advection by the raging - yet stuck to our west - Atlantic, combined with a bit of energy making it to southern parts of Asia to prop the block up.




ECM is really sending a ridge to the NE on day 7 of the 12z op run, thanks to the Scandi trough dropping more energy south than on any previous run 

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Polar Low
Sunday, December 1, 2013 6:49:47 PM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&archive=0


very cold for southern England I would have thought maybe f fog await Martin thoughts


 

White Meadows
Sunday, December 1, 2013 6:58:57 PM
A real stinker from ECM with our high toppling into France introducing s'westerlies.
doctormog
Sunday, December 1, 2013 7:05:30 PM

A real stinker from ECM with our high toppling into France introducing s'westerlies.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



It looks chilly to me (or in the south at least) towards the end of the run. 😕
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Polar Low
Sunday, December 1, 2013 7:06:14 PM

im quite pleased with that has a bit to do in f1 but its not out of the question thats for sure.


a little furthe north and game on. trends just trends


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0


 

Gooner
Sunday, December 1, 2013 7:07:53 PM

A real stinker from ECM with our high toppling into France introducing s'westerlies.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

It looks chilly to me (or in the south at least) towards the end of the run. 😕

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Think it will be chilly , a flow fro the East running back towards some much colder air

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
Sunday, December 1, 2013 7:08:36 PM

There is room for improvement but the outlook is not great.  Hopefully the next trend will be for the block to set up at a higher latitude

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Polar Low
Sunday, December 1, 2013 7:09:44 PM

very cold at the surface and if f/fog  await \Martin


 


A real stinker from ECM with our high toppling into France introducing s'westerlies.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

It looks chilly to me (or in the south at least) towards the end of the run. 😕

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

White Meadows
Sunday, December 1, 2013 7:12:19 PM
Darren Bett countryfile "will be a short sharp burst of cold". Apologies off topic.
Polar Low
Sunday, December 1, 2013 7:12:41 PM

your hard to please Beast give it a chance.


 


 



There is room for improvement but the outlook is not great.  Hopefully the next trend will be for the block to set up at a higher latitude


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Andy Woodcock
Sunday, December 1, 2013 7:13:28 PM


There is room for improvement but the outlook is not great.  Hopefully the next trend will be for the block to set up at a higher latitude


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The outlook is great, if you live in Greece


ECM setting up nicely for a Athens Special.


Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Polar Low
Sunday, December 1, 2013 7:16:33 PM

I know but calm down Andy its not lost


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=0&archive=0


 




There is room for improvement but the outlook is not great.  Hopefully the next trend will be for the block to set up at a higher latitude


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


The outlook is great, if you live in Greece


ECM setting up nicely for a Athens Special.


Andy


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

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