Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday December 5th 2013.
All models show the severe storm to affect the North and East today abating overnight as the storm moves East over Europe. many coastal areas are at risk from flooding at the high tides overnight. Elsewhere the weather quickly calms down as a ridge of High pressure moves across from the West. By tomorrow a warm front crosses East around the Northern flank of High pressure over carrying a band of rain across Northern areas and increasing cloud for all. By the weekend all areas will be under much quieter weather with fine and cloudy weather with temperatures close to the seasonal normal, apattern that remains in place for the early part of next week.
GFS then shows a sustained period of tranquil and benign conditions with light to moderate winds from between SE and SW with a NW/SE split developing later with any rainfall restricted to NW areas while the South and East look like staying largely dry throughout the run. Temperatures would be mild for most but with some colder surface air across the South at times with some areas of mist and fog possible.
UKMO closes it's run with High pressure away to the East and ESE with a slack South or SE flow over the UK with fine weather predominating across the UK. The mildest conditions will be in the NW whereas Southern and SE Britain may experience less mild conditions with some mist and fog at times and a touch of frost should skies clear by night.
GEM tonight has dropped it's wintry scenario of this morning with a movement towards the other models in maintaining largely dry and cloudy weather with the 'will it' 'won't it clear' being the determining factor on how things feel at the surface.
NAVGEM also shows a mild and breezy Southerly feed across the UK next week with High pressure out to the East. It will be dry and the mildest weather will be likely in the West with somewhat colder and less breezy weather possible towards the East at times.
ECM tonight shows High pressure to the East and SE building across the UK with quiet and benign conditions with a lot of cloud overall. However, the chance of some clearer weather at times will increase the risk of fog dramatically and some frost may also occur locally should this occur. Late in the run High pressure does migrate to Scandinavia briefly with some rather chillier conditions for a while but with the Jet flow still riding over the top it only has one place to go and that is shown in the end days of the run as it sinks South into Europe, though for the UK in this run colder air may well hold on with some frost and fog by night, especially in the East.
The GFS Ensembles shows the general trend of maintaining High pressure based weather across the UK for the entire run tonight. Any rain is most likely towards the NW with very little elsewhere as High pressure is biased to be positioned over Southern Britain or to the SE. The uppers are almost universally well above average across the UK through the entire run tonight once the current cold blip dissolves over the next 48hrs.
The Jet Stream shows a continuous train of a NE flow crossing the Atlantic and up to iceland and northern Scandinavia keeping the UK well and truly on the warm side of the flow with next to no change shown tonight over the coming two weeks.
In Summary the weather looks like becoming locked in a pattern that could stick around for a couple of weeks and maybe until Christmas. The main culprit is a strong Jet flow which becomes anchored in a strong and NE moving conveyor belt across the Atlantic up to Iceland and across to Northern Scandinavia over the coming two weeks. With High pressure over Europe and maybe Southern Britain the weather is likely to become stuck in a rut with the only differences day to day being the amount of cloud cover and whether it becomes mild or not. It will not become very cold anywhere if tonight's chart verify but if skies clear and a continental drift to the wind moves across the South then widespread fog problems could arise along with a touch of frost. As a result of this a slow clearance through the day of fog would result in cold conditions in places. On the other hand if the wind shifts more to the SW which is indicated by some output mild conditions could develop with temperatures well above average at times. We'll have to see how it pans out day to day but all in all there is little excitement for weather observers to look forward to tonight.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset