Good morning. From yet another morning of wet and windy conditions in the West Country here's this morning's report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for Monday December 30th 2013.
All models show a trough moving steadily East over the UK carrying strong winds and rain with it, clearing Eastern Britain later this afternoon. A lull of light Westerly winds follow with just a few showers before another vigorous trough crosses East overnight with further very gusty winds and showery rain. Tomorrow is then shown with SW winds, strong at times with rain turning showery later. Into 2014 and the weather is shown by all models to look every bit as volatile with further spells of heavy rain and strong winds alternating with somewhat colder interludes with heavy showers, especially near Southern and Western coasts.
GFS then shows next weekend as very unsettled as another vigorous Low pressure trundles East across the heart of the UK with gales and heavy rain at some point on Saturday giving way to colder and showery conditions for a time before on Sunday a new major Atlantic Low sets up another round of strong WSW winds and rain. From then on through Week 2 absolutely no respite is shown with deep Low pressure to the North with strong Westerly winds and showers and longer spells of rain coupled with gales persisting unabated.
UKMO closes it's run next Sunday with a deep and complex Low pressure covering much of the North Atlantic from Newfoundland, Iceland and the UK each affecting the UK with strong winds and very heavy rainfall with flooding becoming a serious issue if these Lows come in with this frequency.
GEM is very similar with the main message being of more severe gales at times with periods of rain sweep in from the West regularly with short showery spells in between. The run ends with a 960mb Low centred close to West Wales with all the attendant problems that would bring if verified.
NAVGEM closes it's run with Low pressure (965mbs) West of Ireland with strong SSW winds and rain from troughs blown quickly North and East on strong SW winds, especially in the South.
ECM today shows little difference although once more Low pressure fills over the UK by Day 10 giving a brief colder spell in 10 days with showers turning wintry for all in lighter North winds. However, with the pressure structure as it is the UK looks to be on the collision course of the next Low pressure exiting Newfoundland by the end of the week as an Atlantic ridge would topple SE over and away from the UK.
The ECM Ensemble Mean at Day 10 indicates troughing still over and to the NW of the UK with higher pressure to the South over Southern Europe and the Azores maintaining unsettled weather with rain at times and hardly indicative of anything other than colder transitory polar maritime incursions at times.
The GFS Ensemble mean remains little changed from those of late with nothing to suggest anything other than a continuation of wet and windy weather for all areas at times in temperatures overall pretty close to average.
The Jet stream continues to be programmed to run powerfully across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain or Northern France throughout this morning's output.
The Summary this morning remains doggedly the same as I have been saying for weeks now and that is the very volatile and sometimes powerful unsettled spell is locked in for the foreseeable future. There will be spells of very strong winds and very heavy rain all too frequently through the period creating more misery for flood prone areas with some wind damage too possible at times. There will be some very short showery interludes when winds fall lighter and at these times it may be briefly colder with some snow showers on the hills, especially in the North. However, temperatures overall will not be troublesome maintaining an overall very average level with only limited chances of slight frost under transient ridges.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset