Model Output Discussion 06/01/14 17:42 >>>>>· Page 7

theweatheroutlook

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Rob K
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:30:21

#151

Again coldest set of the winter! Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Blimey where did that come from!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jason H
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:30:37

#152

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010712/ECH1-144.GIF?07-0

A battle commences

Originally Posted by: Gooner

I like that chart!

I feel great! so maybe I might just
Search for a 9 to 5, if I strive
Then maybe I'll stay alive
Bexleyheath, Kent.

Hippydave
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:31:21

#153

Again coldest set of the winter! Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Interesting number of cold outliers in the mid term, massive scatter after the 15th would suggest things are fairly finely balanced

If we get another ECM run with blocking establishing the odds of something colder for later in the month must be improving, albeit still very much a low probability at the moment.

Cooler (but not cold) and drier than currently looks like a decent enough bet for the time being, unless the potential for cold gets developed in future runs and starts getting in to the more reliable part of the runs

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

JACKO4EVER
Guest

07 January 2014 18:37:24

#154

intresting members to say the least

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=2&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=3&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=5&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=8&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=10&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Some good links there

Jackooooooo where are you

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Here lurking as ever!

A step in the right direction if its cold your looking for, though still finely balanced IMO. I can't see the Atlantic being brushed aside easily.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Possibly the coldest set I have see for some time, though still a few milder stragglers there. Even then, they aren't particularly warm

Fairly good agreement until 14th, though again we see action in FI. I wonder if this will start to come into reliable timeframes soon?

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:38:25

#155

LOL

mild in the south, snow for scotland on the 168

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Rob K
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:39:39

#156

Pick of the crop!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-19-0-228.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-19-1-228.png?12

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:41:28

#157

I see that Meteociel now has a UK zoom view for the ECM and UKMO charts.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:44:17

#158

Again coldest set of the winter! Originally Posted by: Gooner

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

looks like 15th is a split day

With 5 sub-10c runs, and one of those close on -15c, is it time for 'ensemble watch'?!?!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

SEMerc
Guest

07 January 2014 18:45:15

#159

LOL

mild in the south, snow for scotland on the 168

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Mild everywhere on the 192.

Zubzero
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:45:17

#160

LOL

mild in the south, snow for scotland on the 168

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Mild in the South?

Either way if ECM has the general pattern right. It is going to be very wet. With more fllods to come

Sasa
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:48:32

#161

I would be very interested to get Darrens take on this albeit it may be too early on in the game but i think he must have spotted this at a very early stage and had a good feeling this was going to turn out cold.

Kingston Upon Thames

Zubzero
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:49:21

#162

LOL

mild in the south, snow for scotland on the 168

Originally Posted by: SEMerc

Mild everywhere on the 192.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Mild? must be looking @ a diffrent ECM

bledur
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:54:33

#163

a lot of excitement about it turning colder , but any long range forecast i have seen only suggests cooler e.g temps 5degrees in the south 2 in the north, so not really cold although there would be snow on higher ground.

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:54:35

#164

Mild or not there is remarkable agreement, given recent output, across the models on the positioning of high pressure over Scandanavia at T192. Of course the shape and angle of the high pressure and where this leads varies between JMA, GEM, GFS and ECM but some form of an easterly is now becoming more and more likely. Just a slight adjustment westwards and we could tap into something half decent. GEM is probably the best of the 12z output I terms of cold and snow potential but don't be surprised to see further upgrades in the coming days.

St. Sampson
Guernsey

Polar Low
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:55:26

#165

Stunning Chart lovely movement from 2 energy lovely hold of heights my projector flickers with delight

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:55:47

#166

LOL

mild in the south, snow for scotland on the 168

Originally Posted by: SEMerc

Mild everywhere on the 192.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Are you sure you're not looking at the 00z? The 12z at 192 is far from mild imo. OK, it may not be snowy (850s are too high for a start), but it looks like a decidedly chilly, wet and windy day all round. Also it has significant better positioning of highs and lows for any future cold development than the 00z.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:56:27

#167

Not a great ECM prob one of the mildest when set against its ensembles. We would be unlucky if it works out like this.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Gooner
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 18:57:49

#168

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010712/ECH1-240.GIF?07-0

I have seen worse 240 charts from ECM this Winter

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

doctormog
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 19:00:39

#169

LOL
mild in the south, snow for scotland on the 168

Originally Posted by: Zubzero

Mild everywhere on the 192.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc

Mild? must be looking @ a diffrent ECM

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Me too. If that is mild here then I am looking at the wrong charts. It is not extremely wintry but in this neck of the woods I would not classify it as mild.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Rob K
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 19:00:57

#170

ECM may not bring deep cold but those are certainly not mild charts at the surface with a SE feed for most.

Also between 216 and 240 the low pressure is heading SSE towards Biscay. Never a bad sign.

Edited by user 07 January 2014 19:02:21 | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 19:02:47

#171

Yes but we have energy digging into europe now on most and have lost those hold of hights in southern europe which was real pain for cold charts im happy even with those charts for now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html