It's undoubtedly a disappointing outlook for cold weather fans this morning - a clear case of so near but so far!

ECM shows something which a few days ago wasn't shown by any model at all... a mildish spell:

http://oi43.tinypic.com/2j27312.jpg 

GEFS is slightly colder, with near-normal conditions on its ensembles:

http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

So, what happened? 2 or 3 days ago cold weather was looking more likely than not and it was sustained over several runs too. The handling of the upper blocking high (and the jet over the Atlantic) has subtly changed and as a result the heights are more likely to sink away SE'wards, meaning that low pressure stalls close to the UK and we get unsettled conditions. The only consolation of this pattern is at least it's not stormy in the way we saw over and around Christmas.

It goes to show that the most likely option doesn't always happen, but sod's law it should be when cold is showing as likely - it does of course happen the other way sometimes (as recently as last year) but it's the let-downs that stick in the mind more than sudden upgrades. FWIW MOGREPS was the least keen model on things turning colder (reaching at most 50%, whereas ECM-15 had it at 70% for a couple of runs and over 50% for a couple more).

It's not entirely game over for a colder outlook but at the moment the odds are lower than they've been for the past week, only 10% or so.

In the meantime it looks like more rain (but nowhere near as much as we've had recently) and average or even slightly mild daytime highs.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011100/ECH1-144.GIF?11-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011100/ECH1-168.GIF?11-12

ECM equally as daring with the hint of an Easterly

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Yes, after doing my morning scan of the charts, those two caught my eye as something of real interest.

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http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014011100!!/

ECM 120 postage stamps show cluster 1 offers northern blocking attempt.  So still a slim (15%) chance of some cold air advected in 6 days time.  85% chance of something much milder and wetter though.

 

 

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On the face of it looks promising, but there is nothing to stop the northern jet and very few of the ECM ens bring in an easterly. In fact virtually none

It is almost game over. See you next month

 

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Matty,

 

You are very keen to pick up on the amateur enthusiasts and I was one of those posters who made what you refer as a laughable comment however;

• The fact is there was some cross model agreement across several runs which gave bias to colder then normal conditions.


• Models have changed in favour of milder conditions but it does not mean it is all over as there is still a possibility the block over Scandi can build and part of the country could see colder conditions.


• You are so keen to defend the experts with their recent investment into a 100m computer and STILL they get things wrong at a 24 hour range. Let me remind you they recently invested 100m into a super computer and only 10 days or so they changed the longer term outlook.

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Bullet point 1:

There was some agreement and an awful lot of scatter, and the general trend was for a brief easterly, and even that was very much in the balance due to its proximity and knowledge of how easily it could have been scuppered

2:

You really need to read my post again as I'm pretty certain I said that.

3:

Yes I am, but if you're better then fair enough. Top man 😄

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Agreed.  The easterly was always tenuous as it only existed in Fantasy Island.  As reality has come closer the mirage has evaporated, though echoes of the mirage still exist on the ensembles, though in ever decreasing volumes.

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i would be very surprised to see any blocking above 70N in the period  6/12 days. hence, any cold would have to come via a continental flow. the continent will not be cold to our south and east so even subtle changes on the troughing will be unlikely to bring winter within that timescale.  thereafter, all bets are off and the opportunity for winter to begin via HLB will be feaible (imo). we shall see if the lw pattern trends meridional in our art of the NH. it could stay pretty flat.

 

Unlike the UK, the continent can cool down very quckly so not sure I woud entirely agree,

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Means nothing really , as Darren mentioned 75% showed colder for a few runs, but it is still the form horse of course....even favourites get beaten

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I cant help thinking as we move towards late Jan/Feb. there's a v.good chance we will see the Azores High ridge across to our shores. My thinking is based on 2 main factors: a) the Law of Averages; b) That statistically Feb. and Mar. tend to be drier months overall than January. Time will tell if I'm right..

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Staying generally unsettled with average temps for the coming week with rain never far away for most.

No cold whatsoever in the offering.

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Looking at the tail end of the GFS output, if it is late spring or early summer right now, we would be clapping our hands at the prospect of an extended spell of warm and dry weather with above average sunshine amounts. Yes, even here at Kent where we wouldn't have that chilling sea breeze coming in from the North Sea on a regular basis, like what has been the case last Spring.

What's the betting that those kind of synoptics will never show up and/or take place in late Spring time?

I'm just glad that I don't seem to be seeing a return to raging storm-like zonality, I think I've seen enough interesting weather to last me for this year - and we're barely only into the second week of 2014!

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Yep, fair summary that. At least it looks less windy but rainfall totals could start to rise again

Rather than moping about the models I suggest people get outside and enjoy what is a rare glorious sunny Saturday 🙂

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It means its probably going to be non-cold and possibly wet. 

Anyhow, enough of this, out to the glorious sunshine!

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A number of people asked me if we were getting snow next week as many had been suggesting. My reply was pretty much as above, and we need to get to 2-3 days away before we can even consider it likely. Output since then has pretty much justified my stance.

 

I agree with this. Don't ask me why, but this situation just has that feel about it, can't put my finger on why.

Of course, a sudden change can't be ruled out - I still remember Feb 1978 after a mostly mild winter down here.

Mind you, I think many would take a strengthening Azores high with mild temps and mostly dry weather. Everything is soaking wet outside and really needs the chance to dry out a bit.

On a local note here, I have still yet to get an air frost this winter! In 2011/12 the first one was 14 Jan which was the latest in my records which go back to March 1996. That looks likely to be broken this year.

 

 

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Just for clarity, what percentage of the ECM 00z EPS at day five are actually in cluster 1?

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Its about 50% Doc ...BUT...I supposed that of those 50% fewer than half would lead to northern blocking that brings cold.  Check the ECM ens. - they show on days 6 and 7 the OP was in the very coldest strands and is pretty much a cold outlier, whether its a trend setter is for the individual to decide upon.

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For anyone that wants hope

I would check out the UKMO (2nd most accurate model currently at 144h)

 

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Plotted the verification stats for 500mb heights currently

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

ECM (and UKMO) is consistantely good.

GFS is always slightly superior to GEM

NCMRWF is poor for short range, but becomes very suprior for longer time scales (relativly speaking)

CFS does the same to a lesser extent

NAVGEM is of course still the best model in the universe. 

 

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in

as I read

'

 

Unlike the UK, the continent can cool down very quckly so not sure I woud entirely agree,

[/quote

Nickie's point  'the continent will not be cold to our south and east'  IMO is valid in that the models are not showing cold uppers to get into that area in the next 10 days.  The current GFS gives it a go by attempting to some very cold air in towards Poland and Austria with a shortwave over Ukraine towards the end of next week, but with the vortex over Greenland firing up around the same time the cold pool is shown to take its favourite left turn..... on that basis anybody up for hiring a lorry to transport all those extra snow shovels seen in the stores this winter to Greece?  Nah, its only the GFS.

Just goes to show that the pattern this winter, so far, in allowing absolutely no cold snaps at all, is pretty unusual and extreme. You don't get many winters quite as bad as this from a cold/snow perspective, during a decade that's for sure.

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Next week may well be a write-off for cold but beyond that ECM shows a majority of runs having colder-than-average conditions.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html 

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