http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012100/gfsnh-10-276.png?0

Warming predicted for the start of Feb........................straw

Main observations of GEFS 0h

-Keeps Atlantic at bay  for aday or so longer than METO

-Diving LP scenario but again relatively short livednot as clear cut as ECM

-In short not much continuity in the ENS  but  betwen 144 and 240h a coldish look including some very  tasty ENS

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=14&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=15&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=16&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=19&mode=0&carte=0

Very unsettled outlook and often quite wet with snow over northern hills later in FI where it could turn colder.....

Same story all winter so far.

So far so good

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012106/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012106/gfs-2-54.png?6

Thursday could surprise a few

But north of M4 and before turning back to rain:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140121/06/54/prectypeuktopo.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

Groundhog day.A week on from this Friday a remarkably similar picture of a col beween,Azores HP,Atlantic and Scandi HP

Also GFS 06hop backs down from any easterly flow around sinking LP.

The Altantic wakes up from it's catnap. Sun noontime: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201401210600&VAR=pslv&HH=126&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Looks like Northern and Western parts are set to bear the brunt with strong gales and heavy (wintry in places) showers on Monday and through into Tuesday once the obligatory leading gusty-type warm front passes through on Sunday. Not needed where people are still picking up the pieces and patching everything together from the last time. Mind you, if this system does decide to kick up a fuss as planned, at least it does appear to concide with neap tides.
  By then, Southern and Eastern parts are usually on the "lee" side of it all with the best of the clear skies.

This low pressure system looks like being nailed on, even at six days away. From here on it'll all be in the fine tuning as we get nearer to the time.  Although, having said that, this one is unusual in it's own right as deepening Icelandic-type low pressure systems usually curve to the left, but thanks to that Scandy block this one is shown as stopping in it's tracks while to the north of the UK and then head southwards and (hopefully) fill in doing so. Even ECM is thinking in a similar line (just a little bit to the west).
 

Anything beyond that then becomes educated guesswork territory.

Fax chart certainly looking wintry around here on thursday.

A pair of occluded fronts and sub 528dam air:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Ensembles are actually rather poor and show a warming trend. So not much chance of the Arctic High doing much of interest

NAVGEM takes the prize today!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014012106/navgemnh-0-144.png?21-11

The arctic high has never been the problem, in fact throughout this winter its been pretty well placed particularly this month. In fact it looks somewhat better placed than last year and similar to 2010! The issue is, and always apparantly has been, cold air from canada mixing from warm tropical air causing massive cyclogenesis, so while the arctic high is good and there is evidence of both strong, northern and midlatitude blocking, we still have a strong jet which is fairly flat from newfoundland to england.

But

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.1.20.2014.gif

I am optimistic that we will start to see some sea ice forming on that east coast soon, and there is a notable tripole in terms of SST with distinct warm-cold-warm bands. This is effectivly a negative feedback that is only just starting to come into play, in a few weeks that area may be ice covered and cyclosis could suddenly happen and when it does provided the arctic doesn't screw up in the meantime (hey it probably will!) we will get cold weather here.  

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-20-1-192.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-18-1-204.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-17-1-204.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-16-1-192.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-14-1-204.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-13-1-192.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-10-1-228.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-9-1-240.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-6-1-228.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-1-1-216.png?6

Seems much agreement in a cold 2 or 3 days right at the end of the month after the LP spins through

P12 Gives us some great blocking

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-12-1-312.png?6

Hi all

Here's todays video update;

Will Low Pressure Dive South Next Week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Models flirting with the idea of an increasingly cool and wintry week, but call me dubious give we've been here before this January with the "cut-off" low idea.

It is beginning to seem like we're being teased in the most detailed way wrt to any very cold weather.

I recall one winter when a spell of -10C and lower was very much on the cards and the Atlantic kicked it away. I can't remember exactly what year it was.

The fat lady is limbering up!!

Probably January 2005?

This spell

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050127.gif 

Caused a meltdown on the forums when it went down the pan just 72hrs away.

There was a LOT of bitterness and emotion as I recall.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012112/gfsnh-0-150.png?12

We have a slider, well done NAVGEM for being the first to pick it!

I think it was early that February when Andy Woodcock made his famous "winter is over" post on the forum just as the models were indicating the atlantic coming back in and (we thought) seemingly scuppering any chance of a cold spell. But a cold spell did come- it was just a bit later in February than the models had first suggested.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012112/UN144-21.GIF?21-17

not bad

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012112/gfsnh-1-180.png?12

from an atlantic source, about as cold as it gets.

Fegusson says the trough will push through quicker like UKMO and unlikely to disrupt like GFS