Have to agree ............sadly

Probably because they know we need more than just warming APS, we don't know enough about the warmings really.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012612/ECH1-240.GIF?26-0

something of hope HP builds to the East at the end of the runs.......................gone in the morning no doubt

It may be gone in the morning, or perhaps it might be the start of a trend. Who knows?

All entitled to an opinion mate

Status quo on the ECM, with block to the East facing off the Atlantic again at T240 - not a bad position to be modelled in for that far out although as will probably be seen during the coming week, can lead to frustrating cold and wet weather unless you're a fair way up a hill

GFS not a million miles away at the same point albeit more energy wandering around to the North and a subsequent southerly nudge to the Scandi block.

Mild and zonal it isn't, wet and miserable it probably will be

Still not too fussed about FI given the uncertainties in the near term although could do with one of the Ops picking up one of the cold solutions just to keep the spirits up

And just to wander in to the SSW debate whilst saying SSW will lead to high lat blocking which will affect the UK and make us cold is clearly too simplistic, dismissing SSW's as some kind of fad and suggesting they're essentially random in their effects is a little too simplistic too imo 

Fairly sure the research shows major UK cold spells are often follow ons from a SSW - what we need to establish is how they affect the atmosphere to try and get a better idea of what kind of warming leads to what kind of broad scale pattern. Obviously we're not there yet but speculating on whether a warming shown will have an affect on the UK weather is fair game if you ask me. Has the preceding/recent minor warmings effects led to the split vortex for example? Something obviously has.. (not knowledgeable enough to speculate on what personally though).

I've just popped my head round the corner and noticed a rather rotund female limbering up on a make-shift stage

in the center of isleworth,she seems to be flushing 3 large novelty letters down a pretend toilet, they look like an S,  followed by a W, oh and another S  ...(no idea what that means) ..Now she's just produced a microphone ........

It is a fair point as I mentioned earlier, I think you will find I always post a link with a comment, would people really read the comment without openng the link?

The link would show you which model was being talked

I clicked on Weather Idle's link again and I still genuinely have no idea which AH he's noticed "nudging in". There's slack high pressure nudging south at the top of the map, so presumably he's talking abouth the Arctic High. But the Azores High is pointing towards Britain, so perhaps that caught his eye, though it's still stuck to the west of us, which could make it an Atlantic High.

It's not the Northern Hemisphere view though in these cases there are often the best

Just for you SFB I will use your handy notation suggested earlier or write the things out in full from now on

HF (happy face)

WI

Good evening. Here is the report on today's midday outputs from the NWP for today Sunday January 26th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a deep depression close to NW Scotland with a cold and showery WNW flow over the UK. The showers will be heavy and wintry at times with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible almost anywhere but more likely near western coasts and hills. Through the first half of the week the parent Low pressure slips South down the Western side of the UK and then away to the South maintaining the unsettled and sometimes wet weather with temperatures on the low side of average. Pressure then builds strongly from Scandinavia briefly over Thursday and into Friday with drier and cold weather on an Easterly breeze which falls light later in the week allowing frost at night.

GFS then takes us out of the week and into the weekend showing the first of yet another series of deep depressions, many ending up over the UK with the resultant wet and windy conditions keeping things over the flood stricken parts of the UK very depressing indeed. Temperatures remain close to normal but it will feel chilly at times and there will continue to be some snowfall on higher ground at times, especially in the North.

The GFS Ensembles show a chillier period this week as the Low pressure responsible slips South of the UK. It then turns very Atlantic dominated again as Low pressure brings milder weather with periods of rain and showers in strong winds and temperatures returning to close to or slightly above average values later.

UKMO shows the start of next weekend with a Low pressure trough having cleared to the East of the UK with a spell of rain having cleared to the East followed by NW winds and wintry showers across the North and west later.

GEM shows a reversion back to Atlantic based weather next weekend with periods of rain and strong winds moving East and NE across the UK towards the end of the run replacing the rather chilly conditions of this week with temperatures rather closer to average.

NAVGEM shows the only chance of colder air in association with a block to the East offering some resistance to the Atlantic onslaught next weekend as Low pressure areas disrupt and weaken in situ over the UK with rain bearing fronts slowing and stalling across the UK with rain and snow in places to begin with before all areas away from the NE become less cold and wet as a deep depression lies to the west of Ireland.

ECM tonight also shows the Atlantic winning out next weekend as a front crosses East with rain then wintry showers. Then as we move into the new week the weather remains and if anything becomes more unsettled as Low pressure becomes ensconced across the UK once more.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight indicate a bias towards Low pressure to be most likely to be situated to the west of Scotland with SW winds and unstable air across the UK with rain and showers across ll areas and temperatures back up to average levels with any cold from the block to the East back to the other side of the North Sea.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream shows the flow maintaining it's current trajectory for next week to the South of the UK. The trend in the latter stages of the output tonight is for the flow to strengthen yet again and shift position to cross Southern Britain in Week 2.

In Summary tonight the weather is going to become rather chilly this week but apart from some scattered snow flurries there seems little chance of any widespread snowfall anywhere. However, it will feel more seasonal for a time as winds shift easterly for a short time after midweek. Later in the period the Atlantic regains supremacy with most models showing an easy victory for the Atlantic with little prospect of anything other than transient snowfall away from the high ground of the North and NE before temperatures return nearer to average and what's more important in my estimation a very real possibility of much more rainfall to add further misery to those areas afflicted by floods.

Phew - This is making me wonder if we're in for one of the wettest winters ever.

There is one certainty with the current synoptics and that is there are no certainties. At the moment it looks as though the default setting for the winter thus far will re-establish itself on the UK weather later this week but f1 is only a few days out for me. Great weather watching even if it is depressingly wet.

Always been showing this imho. I have no idea why so many people on Twitter are so excited. Many coastal areas will not even get a frost, let alone a flake or two! On that notion, I'd be hard pressed to even call it a cold snap. Cool snap seems more appropriate.

Martin's post above sums it up nicely.