Beware off ecm opp many ecm members like the the storm a lot

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!72!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014080712!!/

An unsettled/changeable look to most of the runs today with temps somewhat a little below average as we go into next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

The ECM 00z has the low tracking across the Midlands for Sunday deepening as it does moving NE.

However, Bertha is taking the more southerly track on fax chart at t+60 - still undecided how it will move, even now.

ECM Op flip-flops again and is now in agreement with the GFS 00z Op in taking the centre of the low NNE over N. Wales and N. England, which the GFS has been fairly consistent about.

Meanwhile the fax as you say keeps things further south (but still over the SE of the UK), and seems to be in line with their TV forecasts "most likely" sceanrio. Be inetesresting to see if the human input forecassts start to change during the today.

It now looks likely that the LP system containing the remnants of Bertha will sit around across or to the N of the UK for a large part of next week.

Thankfully the sharp cold/warm boundary looks to mix out by Tuesday, leaving us with showers rather than frontal rain to contend with.

In that regime, and with upper air temperatures managing to stay within a few degrees of average, the weather may be reasonably useable in the south, with maximums close to 20*C for the most part.

Not so good further north of course.

For our way out of that pattern, it appears we should look to our NW and developments around Greenland, as it appears heights will be lowering there, with a trough developing or moving into the region, which then serves to encourage the jet to track north of the UK, with a ridge from the SW coming into play.

GFS and ECM are the main models showing this development, but on the other hand UKMO has an extra LP development over the Eastern U.S. which acts to build the Atlantic ridge further north, seemingly thowing a spanner in the works. GEM isn't playing ball either.

So... I'm looking NW and crossing my fingers for a lowering of pressure there! 

It has indeed changed. MetO warnings now much more extensive:

"

...there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity."

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gme/run/gme-0-48.png?08-00

According to GME, the option of ex-Bertha sliding into France as nothing more than a vague area of cloud and rain remains on the table 

The lack of development occurs within the next 24 hours, so unless the main models are about to embaress themselves terribly, it seems GME is overlooking something.

good agreement with ecm members against that idea in going into France now James pushing opp with them.

ecm is hardly ever wrong with that support from its "Team"

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!72!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014080800!!/

John Ham,mond was on local radio today and he thought the most likely place as things stand at present to get the heaviest rain would be southern coastal counties with widespread totals in that areaof 25mm

...there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK, 
though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity."

The next set of fax charts should be interesting. Looks like our worst fears are going to be realised with nasty old Bertha dumping on us and then combining with the existing LP feature to provide an enduring trough. Perhaps summer is over.

OPC fax goes n/e track

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

...there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK, 
though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity."

Hey all,

Here's today's video update:

Ex-Hurricane Bertha + JMA Friday

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

This week JMA update takes us to the start of September and we may have hint's on an improvement ahead?

GFS dartboard LP

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080812/45-515UK.GIF?08-12

Again further north. Cant see the UKMO unfortunately and not sure whether latest Beeb forecast has changed

A bit different from that day 11 yars ago isn't it!

Not good. I was hoping it'd track along the south coast/Channel, so the strongest winds were to the south of mainland UK (and maybe enev keep the northern half of the UK out of the firing line). As it happens, it looks like not only is a major chunk of England & Wales going to get gale force winds, but most are going to get a soaking too.

Fecked off.

Indeed Gav, I forgot about how that sizzling day coincides with Sunday !