As Darren rightly reminds us all in the North American Reports thread, it's actually only a very small area that has been 'pasted with snow' (and that from lake effect snowfall)

GFS op and GFSP have been showing this pattern for late next week quite consistently. The details will obviously change but it will be interesting to see how close to this the charts are a week tomorrow.

PS: If you check the 850s (available on the Chart viewer http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx) you'll find them not cold as the low pressure sinks southwards because of what we were saying earlier.

Looks like turning wet again over the next few days, GFSP rain accumulations by day 6

 On the GEFS the block to the E puts up a fight but the Atlantic digs in eventually by day 7. Mean:

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7821/gens-21-1-168_rzd6.png

Hints of a build of pressure for the start of December, looking fairly flat though

Possible stormy period day 8-10, worth keeping an eye on. Some big lows popping up...

Yes, indeed, a lot of moisture thanks to that big ole' Scandi-Euro-Russian high preventing the progression of weather fronts, but I think it's a bit too uncertain and too far ahead to be talking beyond t+120 atm

I know the post wasn't necessarily directed at me specifically, but my position on this is similar to yours. I mentioned it incidentally, as it may be a factor in mid December; but part of the reason I am not overly optimistic about it is that it is hardly a major SSW, its a displacement at 1-5mb; not a total destruction at 10-30mb. There are plenty of strat punters on here, but I'm not really one of them; sometimes I feel like the scapegoat . 

Think ill get a plan to the USA for cold and done with it sometimes watching uk is painful sometimes to say the least.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

I have AutoCad!

Have patients 

I've a gut feeling   Around mid Dec

Thanks ,looks whats heading there if correct of coure its usa more than likely always get lucky

That cold pool of air just on the other side of the North Sea is very contrasting with the warm uppers over Germany and France

End of the month same weather! lol

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

The daffs will be up soon only kidding

The longer that Scandi high remains & refuses to budge the more interesting things may become further down the line.

OK let's look at this objectively, we have a very decent ECM run here.

You can see we have a strong scandinavian high implied by the yellow-green (high heights). A small amount of cold air is trapped in the circulation, which is indicated by the region of lower heights in Finland; cold air tends to pool in upper level troughs. We should treat this nontheless as a southern block with little cold air, it might produce sleetiness for a few days in a strong NErly, but it is not what you are looking for in terms of the wintry snap.

All of this is not so important though; the block itself (as opposed to a strong atlantic) is. Scanadanavian blocks tend to be gateway features to something far more impressive from the north that is caused by retrogression towards greenland. Do we have this? Unfortunately not, heights are low in Greenland, and the Azors high high is a very prominent feature. In reality it is far more natural, therefore, for the scandi and azors high to merge leaving very calm and boring conditions. The high might realign itself so we get another chance at cold, or perhaps more likely it will sink south into Europe as LPs move over the top. 

Its a start; certainly better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. 

Well, even if it is not cold, at least it does not show the rainfest which plagued us last year.

I've just been notified there was a system issue upstream which caused problems with the 12z GEFS tonight. They're probably best binned although looked consistent with the last few suites.

be nice for something to be confirmed for winter dont think Anyone has a scooby doo. not even the PROS.

This chart illustrates the issues very well: Warmly anomalous SSTs off European coasts, and a crazily narrow and steep thermal gradient off the eastern seaboard of the USA.  Pattern reversal required to neutralise at least the local warm SSTs.  I imagine the thermal gradient of the eastern seaboard is a breeding ground for cyclogenesis.

Hi all, back from my short trip, a bit knackered to be honest!

I see we're in for a dreary sort of day across England and Wales tomorrow, with mostly light rain across the south and southeast of England, heavier across the northwest and heavier still across Wales where the mountains come into play:

GFS and GFSP show a few mm more than this across SW England, but for the most part the story is the same.

Then comes what could well be trouble for the southwest in particular but also more central parts - basically anywhere that's had enough rain recently to raise the river levels close to or into the flood stage:

What you can see in the above is an initial area of heavy rainfall associated with a very slow moving frontal boundary. This moves NE through Saturday and fades away, having added 5-10 mm to the totals across SW England and much of Wales.

That doesn't sound like too big a deal in isolation, but this isn't the end of the story; just coming into view at the southwestern corner of the Channel on the +48 hour chart (on the right) is the very beginning of what looks like being a lengthy re-invigoration of the frontal boundary; this happens as a shallow low advances north from Iberia to introduce a flow of relatively warm, moist air from SE of the UK, which then collides with cooler maritime air flowing around the northern flank of a ridge of high pressure from the Azores (or southern flank of a small low south of Iceland):

The convergence of airmasses is a recipe for persistent rainfall along the frontal boundary which may feature embedded convection capable of bringing some high rain rates at times.

The GFS and GFSP 12z op runs have this kicking in while the boundary is still across SW England and extending NE from there all the way to the North Sea. Not good news for the SW and Wales in particular.

The following 30 hours or so see the front moving slowly eastward, losing some of its intensity but still giving 10-15 mm widely. If there's embedded convection, often overlooked to at least some extent by GFS (not sure about GFSP though - higher resolution should mean better results with this aspect), then totals could be 5-10 mm higher.

Also worth noting that the GFS 06z was further east with the initial invigoration of the frontal system - the boundary extending NE from the Solent region.

This is all followed up by further large rainfall events next week as Atlantic low pressure systems run into that blocking over Scandinavia, resulting in slow moving or stalled frontal systems and areas of convective activity (be that showers or something more organised).

Certainly some stormy charts being thrown out by some of the models now. Yet still we see trough disruption and energy sliding into Europe offered to a large extent by ECM and to a lesser extent by GFSP, GFS and GEM.

I do have some concern regarding what happens if you combine an Atlantic setup ripe for intense Atlantic storms with strong blocking to our E and NE that looks unlikely to yield even in the face of particularly intense (sub-960 mb) systems. The vast difference in pressure will tend to produce stronger winds for a given depth of low pressure system than would be the case if there was no blocking high involved.

Longer term... I haven't got the energy for that right now, in fact I don't know how I managed to get this far tonight 

ECM Control goes very cold but vast majority are mild. I think we will be be very lucky to get a cold spell before Christmas now sadly. The Meto 30 dayer is awful for coldies.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

No doubt we will get the perfect "Winter setup" by April & May with stonking northern blocking and a quiet Atlantic, but by then it will be too late as usual 

The overnight ECM is a horror show if you're looking for cold weather:

The GEFS suggests a more consistent picture with recent days:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21ST 2014.

NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY NOVEMBER 22ND 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A complex series of troughs will move slowly NE across the UK today and become slow moving near to SE Britain from tomorrow morning with wave disturbances running North along it at times over the weekend. Pressure rises strongly across the North from tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming windier and more changeable next week and beyond with rain or showers and strong winds at times moving down from the NW. Temperatures near or a little below average.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the disrupted flow to the West of the UK continuing over the next week with something of a split flow over Europe-one arm high over the Arctic and another one well South over the Med or North Africa. The pattern simplifies in Week 2 as the pattern flattens and a strong flow crosses the Atlantic and Southern Britain later in the period.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows asteady trend towards a more unsettled spell as Low pressure develops and moves down from the NW later next week. There will be spells of rain and showers as a result in temperatures close to or slightly below the seasonal average in increasingly blustery winds. Through Week 2 the winds remain strong and from the West with further spells of rain with temperatures recovering to average or somewhat above in the South as the pattern flattens to a more traditional West to East flow of Low ressure to the North of the UK.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is basically similar in trend and sequence of events with the unsettled and breezy weather revolving around deepening Low pressure over the UK later next week gradually simplifying as pressure rises from the South with Low pressure then to the North carrying wind and rain to more especially Northern areas later while the South sees longer drier phases when temperatures will reach and exceed normal values at times.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles agree with the first half of the partner runs in as much as deep Low pressure develops close to Southern Britain later next week with much wind and rain for all as a result. It then diverges away from the operational and parallel runs in as much as it maintains deep Low pressure sweeping East over the UK rather than to the North with potentially quite stormy conditions at times in periods of rain and showers and temperatures close to average overall.

UKMO UKMO today shows very benign conditions under a slack pressure area from Days 4 to 6 with variable conditions as a result with a mix of sunshine, mist, fog, frost and a little rain all possible with a little sunshine too for the lucky few. Conditions do look like deteriorating from the NW soon after close of the run.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex pressure pattern under basically High pressure over the weekend and start to the new week. Complex frontal activity will prevail near the SE of the UK for the next 72 hours and again by 120hours as well as new versions approaching from the West at the end of the Fax period.

GEM GEM this morning shows the UK remaining the battleground between a block of High pressure over Europe and repetitive Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic and disrupting SE while filling over the UK. This means that after a quiet period early next week more wind and rain is likely thereafter in temperatures close to average but feeling chilly in blustery winds at times.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the theme of Low pressure developing and sliding down towards the UK from the NW later next week with rain and wind increasing in intensity and extent with time in blustery winds too but average temperatures overall.

ECM ECM this morning remains in the habit of being somewhat different to the majority, this morning making rather less of the disrupted Low pressure pattern of later next week before pulling Low pressure further towards a position North of the UK and subsequently taking a lot of it's rain with it while the majority of the UK remain bathed in a relatively mild and Westerly pattern.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run continues to show a deep trough lying from Southern Greenland through the West of the UK to the Meditteranean with cyclonic South or SW winds across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all likely in average tmperatures overall.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend still is relatively one of Atlantic Low pressure gradually taking control of the weather with some disagreement on the positioning and resulting surface conditions in what remains a largely wintry free run.

MY THOUGHTS The output remains very mixed in detail between the models but the general message from them all is similar in that all areas are going to see rain at times across the period. For a time with Low pressure predicted to lie close to or indeed over the UK later next week some very wet weather is likely in places with winds occasionally strong but variable in direction. At this time temperatures may be held back close to or a little below average at times. Thereafter the general trend with exceptions is for Low pressure and the Jet Stream to move North and flatten. There is some evidence that Low pressure will go far enough North in Week 2 to bring drier air across Southern areas from High pressure developing to the South which of course means mild Westerly winds as a result. However there remains enough support too for very unsettled and windy and at times wet weather to persist for all under deep Low pressure lying close to the UK. The High pressure block to the East remains in situ but has shifted away from supplying too much influence to the UK later as the barrage of Atlantic Low pressure overrides it and displaces any chance of cold from a Continental source reaching the UK on this occasion. A more worrying trend is the rise of pressure to the South which is shown on several outputs this morning which coupled with High pressure over Eastern Europe could form an unwelcome Euro High block to the SE of the UK with a mobile Atlantic setup developing delivering most wind and rain to the North and West later. Once this pattern has formed it can prove stubborn to shift and delay a shift towards a more seasonal pattern while maintaining the string of warmer than average months that have occurred this year. However, there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge before we reach that stage and we still have the ECM Ensemble data this morning showing more support for a more entrenched and deep UK trough keeping things volatile and unsettled for all.

Ensembles are pointing towards a more unsettled regime today.  Lots of Low pressure and spikes of precipitation - Combined with average or maybe a little below temperatures in places will lead to pretty raw conditions at times. 

Similar to what we had last year in terms of feel. 

Lets hope it changes.

Looks to be a windy period in The 1st week of next month by the look of some charts.