theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

bledur
09 August 2015 17:53:33

Weather warnings out for the south west tomorrow for heavy rain . Up to 40 mm in places.

Jiries
09 August 2015 18:41:21


Completely wrong again for today here. The forecast cloud and rain has manifested itself as sunshine all morning, cloudier now and completely dry. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


They don't read the charts properly and we still under the HP including your area so I don't see any rain until Friday.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.gif

Tractor Boy
11 August 2015 12:50:12

Yellow warning now out for heavy rain event in the south Thursday and Friday


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1439420400


 


Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Crepuscular Ray
11 August 2015 17:29:37
Just to illustrate how bad the summer has been in Scotland just seen a report on tonight's BBC 6 o clock news. Large patches of snow still exist across the mountains and for farmers it's been the worse summer for decades
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Rob K
12 August 2015 15:15:24
The NW/SE split continues! Story of the summer.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
13 August 2015 01:32:23
Where is the N. America reports thread?

Currently 30c in Calgary, Canada and it's 7:30pm at night!!

http://www.cbc.ca/calgary/weather/s0000047.html 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
13 August 2015 13:04:23

here is a signal for a gradual change to cooler than average temperatures as we go further into September.



Autumn is here!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Essan
13 August 2015 13:39:52

Autumn is here!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Maybe if it arrives in September instead of December we may even get a week of winter before next spring?  Instead of the 3 minutes 5 seconds we had in the past two years  .....

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
UncleAlbert
14 August 2015 23:26:52
For us down here in North Somerset this last week has to be the most problematic period of weather in terms of forecast v outcomes that I recall in the modern tech age. These summaries are based on local forecasts issued after the 6.00PM news on the preceding day.
Forecast for Tuesday: Mainly Sunny, dry. Outcome: Mainly cloudy, dry, and subsequently cooler than forecast.
Forecast for Wednesday: Cloudier, dry. Outcome: Sunnier, dry.
Forecast for Thursday: Cloudy, heavy thundery rain, torrential downpours and storms moving in early and again later. Outcome: Cloudy mainly dry, a few very short periods of very light rain. (Downpours were predicted to be hit or miss but the nearest storm to here missed by eighty miles or so!)
Forecast for Friday: Rain in the morning, clearing to brighter spells and drier during the afternoon. Outcome: Rain in the morning, slowly easing but staying cloudy until evening.

This is not meant to be a criticism of an excellent service but more a 'what the hells going on this summer that is making forecasting so difficult' as there have been many other instances of this in the last few months.

Normally the forecasting is boringly accurate! It does however make me love the weather even more. A fool and a fickle woman.........
tallyho_83
17 August 2015 00:38:04
Where is the N. American thread anyone/?

Thought you may find this interesting - "Strong El Nino" - Usually milder or drier Eastern USA means a colder Europe - well has done in recent years. The lack of Hurricanes and Nor-easters usually mean less wet and windy weather for the UK!! Also NOT one Hurricane in the Atlantic yet!??

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/el-nino-noaa-update-august2015?cm_ven=Facebook_TheWeatherChannel_Weather_JBa_Article_No_3_20150816_twcplayer 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Sinky1970
18 August 2015 07:21:34
Why does the BBC/Metoffice seem to think that the temperature between 18 and 20 degrees is "warm and humid", which is what they have forecast here in the Midlands later this week. These temps are clearly already below average.
Jiries
18 August 2015 08:01:14

Why does the BBC/Metoffice seem to think that the temperature between 18 and 20 degrees is "warm and humid", which is what they have forecast here in the Midlands later this week. These temps are clearly already below average.

Originally Posted by: Sinky1970 


Same as last week which they are not educated enough to learn what warm and humid mean, it never humid last week as the temperatures was very cool high teens which I kept all the windows shut and retain the warmth inside that was created from the last week Sunday 29.3C warmest spell.  They have to go to the tropical country to learn how humidity operates.  Humidity only come with high temps and not below than 25C the minimum threshold.  

Gavin P
18 August 2015 09:30:38

Why does the BBC/Metoffice seem to think that the temperature between 18 and 20 degrees is "warm and humid", which is what they have forecast here in the Midlands later this week. These temps are clearly already below average.

Originally Posted by: Sinky1970 


As we're into "late summer" now 18c to 20c is probably about average for central England... But of course, depending on air-mass 20c can feel "fresh" or "humid".

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
idj20
18 August 2015 10:33:30


 


Same as last week which they are not educated enough to learn what warm and humid mean, it never humid last week as the temperatures was very cool high teens which I kept all the windows shut and retain the warmth inside that was created from the last week Sunday 29.3C warmest spell.  They have to go to the tropical country to learn how humidity operates.  Humidity only come with high temps and not below than 25C the minimum threshold.  


Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Then explain how it does get to feel quite clammy and "steamy" at 14 C with 95% humidity under a south west airflow that has a long fetch in from the Atlantic in February?

It's all down to an airmass providing high dewpoints via high humidity levels, regardless the time of the year or whether it's 15 C or 35 C. Even when it's windy, it'll get to feel muggy while on the other hand it could feel fresh under calm conditions - and vice versa.

Today does feel "cold" to the touch at 16.2 under overcast skies and it is raining, but that's because I've got used to temperatures getting up to 21 C with some sunshine in the last few days that today does "feel" distinctively autumnal. However, in the winter months, this 16 C and 90% humidity level would be feeling positively balmy.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Jiries
18 August 2015 11:33:41




Then explain how it does get to feel quite clammy and "steamy" at 14 C with 95% humidity under a south west airflow that has a long fetch in from the Atlantic in February?

It's all down to an airmass providing high dewpoints via high humidity levels, regardless the time of the year or whether it's 15 C or 35 C. Even when it's windy, it'll get to feel muggy while on the other hand it could feel fresh under calm conditions - and vice versa.

Today does feel "cold" to the touch at 16.2 under overcast skies and it is raining, but that's because I've got used to temperatures getting up to 21 C with some sunshine in the last few days that today does "feel" distinctively autumnal. However, in the winter months, this 16 C and 90% humidity level would be feeling positively balmy.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Still not real humid because I don't sweat or feel hot in here unless temps are in high 20's to low 30's  Plus the humidity in N America are much stronger than here but it always come with sunshine and storms unlike here more like Beijing climate with all day smog, no sunshine and suppressed temperatures.  Maybe for some who never been abroad to experience real humidity and how it operate with sunshine and storms.  That had been missing in this modern summer lately.  

idj20
18 August 2015 12:23:16


 


Still not real humid because I don't sweat or feel hot in here unless temps are in high 20's to low 30's  Plus the humidity in N America are much stronger than here but it always come with sunshine and storms unlike here more like Beijing climate with all day smog, no sunshine and suppressed temperatures.  Maybe for some who never been abroad to experience real humidity and how it operate with sunshine and storms.  That had been missing in this modern summer lately.  


Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Mind you, to be fair, I have just popped out to get a pair of loppers at Argos and since I wear shorts all through the summer months, my bare legs did feel the cold. Seems a bit wrong on how I could get goosepimples in the middle of August, but then as soon as I got back indoors, I started sweating like a cornered nun.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Twister
19 August 2015 21:51:59
Quite an interesting "Weather for the week ahead" by Alex Deakin this evening, explaining the uncertainties this weekend and the potential synoptic patterns which could evolve.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33997191 
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Crepuscular Ray
20 August 2015 05:37:00

Quite an interesting "Weather for the week ahead" by Alex Deakin this evening, explaining the uncertainties this weekend and the potential synoptic patterns which could evolve.

Originally Posted by: Twister 

">http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33997191


I agree, what a great forecast, the best I've seen in a long time and perfect for us boffins on here! I like this for two reasons, firstly Alex explains the atmospheric dynamics of what and how things may develop and really goes into the physics. Secondly it proves to me that I really am wasting my time looking at outlook models! The Met Office can't predict this weekend fully and it's Thursday!


I wish we had a forecast like this every day


 

Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Solar Cycles
20 August 2015 07:31:40


">http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33997191

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


I agree, what a great forecast, the best I've seen in a long time and perfect for us boffins on here! I like this for two reasons, firstly Alex explains the atmospheric dynamics of what and how things may develop and really goes into the physics. Secondly it proves to me that I really am wasting my time looking at outlook models! The Met Office can't predict this weekend fully and it's Thursday!


I wish we had a forecast like this every day


 


Indeed, a refreshing change from the dumbed down forecasts for the masses.

Brian Gaze
20 August 2015 07:38:36

Excellent forecast! They need to be a tad careful though because the mood music of that doesn't resonate with the press releases about the new supercomputer which suggested the ability to forecast individual showers at this time scale at a very localised level.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jiries
20 August 2015 07:50:42


Excellent forecast! They need to be a tad careful though because the mood music of that doesn't resonate with the press releases about the new supercomputer which suggested the ability to forecast individual showers at this time scale at a very localised level.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I think the new supercomputer had made it worse now as I see forecasts and models even on now casts had been very wrong every day like last Friday they went for 27-30C on the models charts and it was cold and wet on that day.  I would be glad if they all be shut down and go back to the old days of window watching and communicating to each other of the current conditions. 

picturesareme
20 August 2015 21:39:36
Jay Winne on speed for the 10:40pm forecast tonight. I think even bargain hunts auctioneers talk slower.
Jiries
21 August 2015 08:52:43

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday


Turning increasingly unsettled during Sunday and into Monday and Tuesday with occasional rain or showers, perhaps heavy and thundery in places, but also with some drier and brighter spells.


With their super computers they haven't got a clue which one going to fall rain or showers, why not follow Canada weather forecasts by using percentage risk of rain that normally up to 30-40% are based on showers and over 50% are period of rain or snow.  That a simple forecasts based on percentage.  It used to be good on 6 days Euronews teletext forecast that used to show max, min, rain % and sunshine hours and most was very accurate outcome.  It was back in the 90's and 00's technology.  Sadly this had been removed and if still around I would use it and ignored the models and TV forecasts. 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
21 August 2015 09:51:43


 


I agree, what a great forecast, the best I've seen in a long time and perfect for us boffins on here! I like this for two reasons, firstly Alex explains the atmospheric dynamics of what and how things may develop and really goes into the physics. Secondly it proves to me that I really am wasting my time looking at outlook models! The Met Office can't predict this weekend fully and it's Thursday!


I wish we had a forecast like this every day


 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Indeed, a refreshing change from the dumbed down forecasts for the masses.



 


Maybe but I get a tad concerned when they show a photograph to illustrate a particular forecast that is a little out of date. The other day they had a meadow full of cowslips in full bloom underneath showery clouds. Great image but wrong time of year. 


Nick

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
WanderingLonelyAsACumulonimbusIncus
21 August 2015 22:13:16

Remove ads from site

Ads