I hope that is said with a tongue in the cheek ?

My son lives there and part of my family resided there for many years and found it a great place to visit.

If you were wanting a reaction from your comment you got one !

As a moderator you shouldn't go around slagging off places where others may live, best stick to the weather  

My hometown of St Helens is a dump but, if I want to cheer myself up, I look to our neighbours in Wigan and realise that it could be much, much worse (and at least only a minority of our population have 6 toes & learning difficulties!)

Quite 

I expect you are thinking of this

http://www.monologues.co.uk/Bernard_Wrigley/Martians_Landed.htm

Surely some mistake?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Anyway errant ensembles aside, it looks like being pretty settled but with cool NE winds for the southern part of the country next week, then the high gradually exerting its influence further south for a gradual warm-up down here.

That looks wrong to me. Signs of change towards mid month continue to show on the GEFS.. 

Pah! If you want real culture, I give you

That happens occasionally with the ensemble data on WZ. I believe it is when they have "stretched" the high res section of the op run across the whole 384hr hour timescale. (Basically the op run line is up to 192 hrs or so and if you have the x-axis scale on that line only it would overlap with the ensemble member data - if that makes sense!)

Don't be greedy :)

You are warmer than us northerners most of the time anyway!

JMA shows the way.  JAM tomorrow, or  JMA?

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 5TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a fresher Westerly airflow for a time as pressure builds from the West tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West befoe a more showery interlude develops by next weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow blowing North over the UK currently. This turns to a more West to East flow as it moves North over the weekend and sets up North of the UK for a time next week. Later in the run the flow reignites in a SE flow from the Atlantic over Western Britain to NW Europe as a trough of Low pressure develops near the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today looks less optimistic from a High pressure poin of view as after a spell of cool NE winds over the South and a lighter North drift over the North pressure falls through the middle of next week with showers developing to leave the second week with Low pressure over or close by to the UK either from a Northerly source and later a westerly one delivering spells of rain and showers in indifferent temperatures through the second half of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a different theory of arriving at the same place with a period of cool and bright weather under High pressure just to the west of the UK giving way to cool and unsettled, showery weather fuelled by a col upper pool of air to the SE by midweek next week and developing a Low pressure which delivers unsettled conditions off and on for the rest of the period with a short period of more settled conditions at the start of the second week before low pressure close to the SE returns cool and showery weather across the South and east once more.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the likelihoods of a trough of Low pressure close to the UK in 14 days time quite high with High pressure migrated more to the SW. There are a few members who cling on to High pressure closer by to the UK and also a few who show something even less wholesome than the majority pack this mroning.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning looks rather better than GFS with High pressure close to the West early in the week with a relatively cool air mass over the UK slowly giving way to warmer conditions especially over the South as the High is shown to stradlle Northern Britain midweek with a warmer Easterly continental feed affecting the South in maintained dry and settled conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure west of Ireland well in control in the latter stages this morning with a cool NE flow over the South and generally fine conditions for all.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today also shows High pressure controlling the UK weather over the next week building in from the West over the weekend. A cool NE feed affects the South for a time before the ridge largely cuts this flow off towards midweek. Then pressure is shown to leak away as the High recedes away West and SW with Low pressure to the North extending cool air and a slack unstable and potentially showery Northerly airflow developing across all areas by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM clings on to the High pressure area to the west of the UK with it's ridge across the Britain until the end of next week at least with the same weather pattern as the other models shown to occur through the week. The end frames of the run do show a slow fall of pressure at the end of the run with a NW flow becoming established across the UK by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM looks like going the same way as much of the output this morning with High pressure early next week keeping things dry if never overly warm before pressure falls later with showers developing, first towards the SE then elsewhere too as Low pressure troughs feed across Britain from the NW too later next week. The end days of the run do show an improvement again as High pressure reuilds from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues it's slow decline from run to run as it brings a slow return of a Low pressure trough close to or over the UK with at least the risk of showers in largely average temperatures by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has very much swung towards a more unsettled and showery interlude at least to develop across the UK late next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS with 85.2 over GFS's's 81.3 pts with UKMO at 81.2. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.1 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.7 pts to 22.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Though the fine weather prospects for the next 7 days remain as were so to speak our thoughts become more and more transfixed towards the increasing spread between the output of a change to lower pressure again from the North or NE late next week or over the weekend as the High to the West declines and recedes back SW or West. The problem seems to arise from a cold pool of air which slips SW over the South late in the weekend or start to next week which no onger slips away South over France and Portugal but returns NE close to the SE as a new born Low pressure area fuelling showers for the SE. At the same time pressure falls elsewhere too and Low pressure, albeit in a largely slack form increases the risk of rain and showers too almost anywhere by the end of next week. Though some warm weather will inevitably be felt for some the mostly NE feed will maintain a cool feel for some with exposure and night's could be unusually cool for early June under clear skies and grass frost cannot be ruled out. Looking further out still into Week 2 the jury remains out on whether the more showery phase is just a blip before High pressure rebuilds such as ECM suggests this morning by Day 10. So with low confidence on anything beyond day 7 we have to work through a High pressure period which although never ideally placed to give high summer weather does at least give a dry and bright period next week with temperatures pleasant by day but cold by night before showers develop later on in the week. Thereafter, more runs are needed on the longer term outlook with a 50/50 chance currently of a pendulum swing towards either continuing showery weather or a return to High pressure based conditions hopefully better positioned next time to deliver more guaranteed warmer weather than next weeks version.

Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 6th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

More Unsettled Second Half To June?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

High pressure possibly breaking down mid-month, but just hint's at the moment, not a strong signal...

Wonderful output for the foreseeable 

ECM turning hot next week with 15c uppers touching the South quite a turnaround from yesterday. No proper breakdown until day 10 as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

Well I may be well lubricated as I've been drinking with Thomson Reps here in Southern Spain but I'll try to explain why we may be luckier this time.

In the run up to the current non event all models failed to pick up on the continuing strength of the Jet flow which was strong prior to the event and ultimately pushed the hot air away East quickly today so that it affected just the SE of England briefly. There are two main differences this time. A) the Jet flow over the UK is weakening markedly over the coming days and moving away to the North. 😎 the High pressure is now shown to lie across the UK next week preventing any push from Atlantic or cool air from the North whereas in the run up to today's warm blip the High responsible was always to the East and was always at great risk of being nudged East by today's trough which ultimately happened.

We must be mindful though that models have changed today and could again as new data comes to light but my confidence at least is increasing towards something more akin to Summer next week.

Of course I don't mind anyway as the sun and heat seems to be relentlessly shining down here in Southern Spain and is predicted to continue to do so.

Didn't realise you were all cold weather in summer fans! Good to see though.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3

http://oi57.tinypic.com/zlrh4n.jpg(ECM)

Looks like another week of below-average temperatures to come!

GFS has a known bias towards lower surface temperatures in the summer months (and winter IMO) possibly due to the way it handles solar heating. In the past commercial clients have asked me why I don't just add on 2C to 3C to the model values to correct, but there are reasons for why that isn't as easy as it sounds. GEFS also has a lower horizontal resolution which doesn't help.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 6TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression near Northern Scotland and a Westerly flow over the UK will weaken as the Low moves away and fills by tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West before more unstable conditions develop late in the week and next weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show a problem for the UK as the flow weakens currently across us before moving away to the NW for a time next week. It then moves back South later next week and though less strong remains instrumental in carrying some Atlantic Low pressure influence to the UK in the second week broken up at times by ridges of High pressure diverting it back north at times.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational illustrtaes the pattern I described in the Jet Stream forecast well and shows High pressure across the UK next week with a lot of fine, dry and warm by day weather before a showery Low develops near the SE late in the week and introduces a spell of more unsettled conditions with some rain before a return to more settled conditions under warm High pressure is shown to temporatily affect the UK again in Week 2.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is broadly the same as the operational in terms of sequence of events this morning with perhaps more of a surge of very warm air in association with the second High pressure area shown in Week 2.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a close to 50/50 split between those members that show a High pressure ridge from the SW affecting the UK and those that show a greater chance that at least a shallow trough of Low pressure covers the UK and a few who signify something more disturbed than that.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning has taken a turn for the worse this morning as it has High pressure across the UK midweek before retiring it away down to the SW later with a cooler NW flow slowly becoming established across the UK late in the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure settling over the UK by midweek though the last too charts (96 & 120hrs) were produced based on yesterdays 12z model run.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure straddling Central parts of the UK by midweek with  fine and dry weather across all areas. Then pressure falls both from the South and North and the High gets squeezed away SW across the Atlantic as cool and unsettled weather becomes established across the UK for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM does show a decline in pressure too later next week but does cling in to relatively High pressure of sorts near the North. After a fine first 3-4 days of next week some showery outbreaks look likely to break out over the South next weekend under shallow Low pressure to the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows deteriorating conditions too later next week as the High over the UK declines across the UK in the wake of Low pressure moving up from the South and to some degree from the NW too. The end result becomes an Atlantic depression to the West of Ireland at day 10 spelling a NW/SE split later with the North and West unsettled with rain at times while the South and East becomes dry and warm with some sunshine

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows the likely pressure across the UK to be around 1015mbs under quite slack conditions overall. While the chart does not depict any particular weather type without any bias towards High or Low pressure dominance I would suggest a lot of dry weather would be present with the risk of showers here and there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to ebb and flow  towards a more unsettled and showery interlude at least to develop across the UK late next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS with 85.3 over GFS's's 81.4 pts with UKMO at 81.3. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.8 over 43.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 32.2 pts to 23.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning the models have led us up the garden path somewhat from even what was shown last night as once more a decline in pressure is shown to develop across the UK later next week replacing the fine and relatively warm daytime conditions with more showery and cooler weather by the weekend. The problems appear two fold as once more pressure is shown to fall from the South but also from the North too setting up a showery period under a likely Northerly drift. The models continue to show that it may well be a temporary blip as High pressure builds back through the second week with ECM this morning showing the likely pattern that was responsible for the longer term outlook from the Met yesterday with South and East becoming best for sun and warmth longer term. However, confidence and sustained patterning within the models for the mid and long term is extremely low at the moment with no model seeming to be able to get a handle on the overall pattern likely to emerge from later next week. It is worthy of mention that the verification statistics of the models longer term has been in the low 20's at times of late and continues to be woefully low so while this uncertainty remains let's enjoy what is relatively certain and that is a period of High pressure based weather with plenty of fine and warm sunshine and just chilly nights to worry about rather than wind and rain and hopefully in the coming days the models may finally come to some agreement on the likely course of events longer term.

Next update from 08:00 Sunday June 7th 2015