Shame it not 4th July today as if this happen last month we would be looking at low to mid 30's daily but never mind as least we are heading to the right direction for a proper nationwide summery weather.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY AUG 4TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A filling depression near NW Scotland will continue to move slowly away North. A new depression will move NNE to the West of the UK later tonight and tomorrow with troughs affecting Northern and Western Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with rain at times especially over the North and West. Some lengthy dry and at times warmer conditions across Southern and Eastern Britain perhaps extending North later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving NE across the South of the UK over the coming days. With time the flow moves to a position further North near Northern Scotland and it is maintained here for some time before indications that it may be moving back South again late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show some changes in pattern once we leave this working week. rain and showers will continue for many until then when a ridge of High pressure builds East close to Southern Britain. This ridge then extends slowly North early next week with some warm conditions for all. Any rain then looks likely to come from thundery showers over Southern Britain feeding up from the South with a rather slack pressure pattern developing through the second week with some showers but some dry, bright and warm spells too, once more eventually looking more likely in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a similar theme of very slack synoptic pressure patterns becoming established across the UK next week and lasting through to the end of the period. The current changeable pattern will become more confined to the North at the weekend as pressure builds strongly across the South with warm and humid weather here. Things become quieter everywhere thereon with some showery interludes almost anywhere but equally some fine and warm conditions too as weak High pressure become mixed in with equally weak Low pressure fronts too.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days from now are fairly positive this morning with a lot of High pressure shown likely to be close to Southern Britain in two weeks time with any unsettled and cooler Atlantic winds more restricted to more Northernmost locations.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a more settled interlude at the weekend as High pressure ridges East across Southern Britain bringing some warm and settled days for a time. However, it doesn't look like staying around long before the Atlantic regains some control in the shape of Atlantic fronts nudging the High pressure away to the East and SE early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a lot of complex if weak synoptics driving the weather over the coming 5 days. Troughs move NNE across the UK from the SW through the period and given humid air will lie ahead of them some of the rain they produce could be heavy and thundery locally.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a build of pressure NE from the Azores High at the weekend with a spell of fine and warm conditions likely for many Southern areas at least for a time. It looks only a transient feature though before Low pressure regains some influence in the shape of thundery showers from the South and SW for a time and then a return to a more NW/SE split in the weather again to end the 10 day period with the best weather returning to the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the build of pressure too from the SW at the weekend. the weather would become dry and bright with some warm sunny spells. then as we move into next week pressure leaks away but with something of a ridge continuing to lie across the UK any rain would likely to be restricted to the odd thundery shower in the South and from Atlantic fronts to the far NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning offers up a change in patterning as we move through the period. Pressure ridges strongly across Southern Britain at the weekend with some warm sunshine developing. At this time the North looks like staying breezy and changeable before here too conditions improve next week as pressure becomes quite slack across the UK. Unfortunately it doesn't look a completely dry picture as the slack synoptics could well support showers at times almost anywhere perhaps thundery in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night on the face of it has changed little but the slack pressure gradient across the UK should support a lot of dry and fine weather along with reasonably warm temperatures especially across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are signs of a possible change this morning as several models show High pressure ridging over the South from the weekend and then transiting to the East developing a lull in the NW/SE split for a time.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.0 pts followed by GFS at 83.4 and UKMO at 82.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.1 pts over GFS's 53.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.7 pts to 33.8 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS This morning's output shows some moderation in the extent of the improvements in the weather shown in the most widespread scale of late yesterday. As a result the models this morning show a half way house type outlook which does provide some improvements at times for the North. Looking in a bit more detail the unsettled phase currently going will continue until the weekend with some rain for most at some point but some warm and humid air still holding on in the SE for a time. A strong ridge of High pressure is then shown by all models to build towards the South of England delivering fine and warm weather here while the North stays breezy and damp for a time. The ridge then moves East but maintains a ridge back across the UK under a quite slack regime pressure wise and it's at this point when conditions could improve most across the North. Once the High moves to the East some pressure from both the South in the shape of thundery showers and the West by Atlantic fronts is shown by some members and a suggestion of an eventual return to a more NW/SE split in the weather is hinted at towards the end of the period with the SE fairing best again. Nevertheless, I feel there could be a lot of rather warm and humid weather to be had by many over the next few weeks and while this will probably not result in wall to wall sunshine and very high temperatures some decent conditions could well be achieved by many more areas than has been the case recently with what rainfall there is more evenly spread across the UK for a time at least.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Aug 5th 2015

Wouldnt the high have to be located to the West/North West/North of you to draw in winds from the North East?? If the high was located to the East, wouldnt it be drawing in winds from the South/South East??  Or have I got that completely wrong?

For starters any high to the west/north west wouldn't be a warm one.😕

So the answer to your question is no, a high situated somewhere between east anglia and Denmark would potentially alow for winds to flow over my locations with a northeast orientation.

Nice ECM tonight probably approaching 30c in the South 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

Tonight's ECM 12z op is the best run from that model for almost two months, IMO.

Next week is still a while away at the moment admittedly, but I'm feeling more encouraged about a change to something better now than at any time in the past 5-6 weeks. Shows how much a Greenland High can be and is the bugbear of a British summer; thankfully there seems to be some good cross-model support now that the current pest will be history by the end of the coming weekend & start of next week.

looking good ☀️

as as you say potentially hot too.

If the ECM mean run is anything to go by, then the influence of the high may only be a brief affair for northern and western regions. However, at least it looks a bit warmer (i.e closer to average) than of late.  And in either case, plenty of scope for improvement in later runs.

As good as the ECM 12z op run is for many of us, it has a dark side - a tropical cyclone develops east of Italy on day 10:

See what I mean? Not saying it's got much chance of verifying, but the SSTs are exceptional in the Med. this year... 

On a more serious note, very promising output this evening for conditions Saturday onward, even the less impressive GFS version is far from dire for many of us 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY AUG 5TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weakening depression will move NNE to the West of the UK with weakening troughs tracking slowly East across the UK today and tonight, clearing to the NE tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with rain at times especially over the North and West. Some lengthy dry and at times warmer conditions across Southern and Eastern Britain perhaps extending North for a time later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving NE across the South of the UK over the coming days. The flow then realigns more west to east across the North of the UK, still moving further South at times in the first week. the flow is then much further North for a time later but never achieves a position quite far enough to the NW to eliminate some of the UK falling under it's more unsettled accompaniment.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to indicate somewhat better conditions than of late with a finger of High pressure from the Azores anticyclone ridged towards Southern England for a lot of the time from the weekend. Unfortunately it is often a couple of hundred miles too South to eliminate the effect of continuing Atlantic fronts from crossing Northern Britain and these also feed down into the South on occasion with a little rain here too at times. Often quite warm conditions in the South will be interrupted by fresher air as any troughs move through the South at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a ridge too developing close to Southern Britain with things warming up down here and becoming quite humid and sometimes rather cloudy over the weekend and next week. The North remains more changeable for a time before a better spell develops here too midweek next week as a ridge extends influence across many areas. Thundery low pressure then moves up from the South with thundery showers for a time before the weather settles down again under High pressure later in the period with many places then becoming fine, sunny and warm.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days from now look fairly good with a lot of High pressure close by to the South and SW with 25% of members placing High pressure across the UK so a lot of fine weather for many areas likely in two weeks time with any unsettled conditions likely in the far North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure ridging across the far South at the weekend from the Azores High bringing warm and humid weather to Southern Britain while the North lie under moist and damp WSW winds. By the end of the 6 day period High pressure has migrated to the East of the UK with a period of slack and light winds for most areas and the small possibility of a thundery shower in the extreme South within the generally warm conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS (to 84hrs) The Fax Charts this morning show weakening fronts moving NE across the UK over the coming days ahead of High pressure building close to Southern Britain by the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM  GEM this morning does show he build of pressure close to Southern Britain at the weekend delivering a spell of fine and warm if often rather cloudy conditions for a while. Further to the North things remain more changeable and breezy and it isn't long into next week before all areas become rather cooler again with occasional rain at times, still more likely across the north and West than elsewhere especially late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the build of pressure too from the SW across the far South of Britain at the weekend leading on to weaken it briefly in the early days of next week to rebuild it further North by Wednesday to extend more settled and warmer conditions to many areas, not just the South by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning offers up a similar package of better conditions as a ridge moves across the far South at the weekend with fine, humid and warm conditions for a while though the North at this stage stays breezy, cooler and more changeable. As the ridge pulls away East next week an area of slack pressure gradients develops across the UK with light winds, warm conditions and an increasing chance of showers as we move from the midweek period to the end of the run when cooler air looks like extending back to many areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  this morning shows the same pattern as previously for the position we're likely to lie under in 10 days time. Low pressure is shown up to the NW with a trough close to Western Britain with slack winds across the UK. With pressure between it's members averaging under 1015mbs UK wide some rain or showers can be expected, still probably focused most towards the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Though improvements continue to be shown from most models in the shape of High pressure ridging from the SW the axis looks too far South to affect all areas on much of this morning's output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.0 pts followed by GFS at 83.3 and UKMO at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.4 pts over GFS's 53.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.4 pts to 33.7 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS All models show a High pressure ridge building towards the far South of England during this coming weekend and bringing warm and humid air up across much of Southern Britain at the weekend though wall to wall sunshine is unlikely under often large amounts of cloud. In the North things look much more changeable still as a strong WSW flow delivers a lot of cloudy and damp weather for a time. It's what happens to the High pressure in the South after the start of next week which determines whether the North shares in the better weather or not as too much output for my liking push the High pressure away to the East too quickly which allows lower pressure to reassert some influence across the UK by the mid to end of next week with the inevitable showers scattered about. I still feel the Jet stream remains a factor in this dilemma as although blowing further to the Northwest than it has for some considerable time next week it remains close enough to put pressure on the extent that warm conditions are allowed to push up across other areas of the UK away from the far South and SE. Nevertheless, there is some output that do build a second ridge on a much more Northerly trajectory next week which would include the North becoming fine and warm so all is not lost for you folk in the North. The problem is though that hemispheric synoptics do not seem ideal to hold things in a static positions with regard to High pressure near or over the UK with all output having the desire to pull back some Low pressure and cooler temperatures at some point, most likely from the West and NW. So while I remain optimistic about some improvements, certainly in the South and less so further North I won't be shouting from the rooftops that a prolonged very warm and settled spell is likely across the UK yet as there remains too many 'if's and but's' in the projections but I think most places should see some reasonable weather over the coming week or two without it ever becoming mesmerising.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Aug 6th 2015

The outlook remains uncertain going into next week, but IMO overall it still does look at least a little better generally than was the case until a few days ago. Prior to Sunday, it looked as though there would be another low moving in from the NW down towards the UK next week and then possibly getting stuck on top of us for several days thereafter. GFS seemed to start picking up on a gradual northward movement of the jet towards the end of last weekend and ECM then began to follow suit. FWIW, UKMO doesn't look too bad at 144hrs this morning.

As is frequently the case, more runs are needed.

Continuing very nice runs and some days are N/S split like this weekend which will be very decent down here and temps wise mid 20's this weekend and all of next week so very settled here and sometimes the north get settled weather as well.

Not sure what I see on the 00z charts that the centre of the LP would over Iceland all the time and not over Scotland but only brushing by so there must be some settled days up there later next week?

it is not the Low pressure per se rather the associated weather fronts, as demonstrated on the FAX chart that Jerry referred to earlier: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif 

Faxes are useless charts and I never use them due to poor non user friendly designs and too many fronts everywhere which doesn't exist in reality.  In cold winter days they often put million of fronts that in reality was dry, cold and sunny.

You tell em Jiries! 

I shall pass on your feedback to the professionals at the Met Office (along with the information about fronts and how they must always have precipitation). 

FAX charts aside, western parts of Scotland especially will, without much doubt, get quite frequent outbreaks of rain in the coming week or two based on this morning's output. It would be a bit drier over here and a good deal drier for the S and SE. Basically it is a small backward step after yesterday's predicted improvement.

I would agree to an extent. Find the fax charts very useful myself, as I prefer to look at frontal charts for analysis/forecasting of the weather conditions, but do think that the UK Met incorporates too many frontal features in the fax charts at times. Of course in reality those fronts do exist, but when you see 3 or 4 elongated occluded or cold fronts parallel to one another in close proximity, it is very confusing and very unnecessary in my opinion as it looks just too cluttered and slapdash.  This is where the BBC frontal charts for example look much better by comparison as they only really show significant frontal features. Sometimes, less can be more.

Yes that why I hate those charts due to too many fronts in a small country.  Yes you can have 4 frontal bands over USA landmass but for this country max is 1 front each day during zonal pattern, rarely reach 2 times due to small island landmass.  06z rolling out and no change so far so looking good for here.

Interesting how GFS has been reloading the pattern in lower-res (days 11-16) on some recent runs, often with hotter results despite being later in the year.

The 00z's day 15 chart is very similar to ECM's 00z day 9 chart:

...though ECMs version isn't quite as toasty. The GFS version has 35*C for parts of the SE which would be impressive for 10 days from the end of August. Remember, the days shorten at quite a rate from mid-August to late October, indeed it's already noticeable how much the light reduces by as early as 9pm when it's cloudy.

On the other hand, October 2011 saw 30*C for some places in the opening days. I reckon mid-30's is achievable as late as mid-September under the right conditions. As in, a no-corners cut perfect setup!

In the 4-5 day range we're now seeing a classic case of a more progressive GFS versus a less progressive UKMO.

See how GFS (left) has a weaker ridge than UKMO (right). More significantly, look at the Atlantic trough - it's further east. Both aspects are most likely related to a flatter jet stream on the GFS output compared to that of UKMO.

The consequence is that by the start of next week the two models are markedly different in terms of surface conditions:

GFS (left) has only a faint ridge to our east with minimal influence on our weather. Slow moving frontal boundaries bring large amounts of rain to the south, enhanced by the warm, moist nature of the tropical maritime air in place.

UKMO (right) has a stronger ridge to our east - a far better defined HP cell - that is closer to us as well. Frontal systems are most likely stuck somewhere over the NW'rn third of the UK. So we're still seeing a considerable area losing out... but the gains for the SE are substantial, with hot conditions possible. So it's a case of where you are being where you stand!

GEM's 12z op run supports the UKMO run in terms of jet amplification ridge placement, though the HP isn't quite as strong.

Beyond day 5, all sorts of trouble unfolds as the potential for a 'heat low' to the south of the UK gives the models a headache. The odds seem to have leaned in favour of two or three hot days and a sluggish thundery breakdown... but GFS remains a notable argument against this with more of an Atlantic influence away from the far south, any 'heat low' not really getting going.