Lets see... what can we gain from looking at the MJO this evening?

Ah. Not much then 

UKMO, the only model that was showing a strong event in the Pacific in line with an El Nino environment, has gone AWOL.

ECM's got it totally stalled out for the next 14 days which would be very unusual.

GEFS are taking it to the Indian Ocean as if there was a La Nina in place. In theory this is a lot less likely to occur than a stay in the Pacific, but you never know I suppose.

For a true understanding of the state of the atmospheric pattern, a plot of the Global Wind Oscillations is preferable. Generally speaking, when the rate of mass transport (dM/dt) cycles at high levels of AAM (top half of the plot area), you've got an El Nino type setup in place. If it circles in the bottom half, you have a La Nina type setup, which was evident up until late June this year.

It was as this entered the positive realm of orbit that we saw improved prospects to start July, as a high AAM orbit in mid to late summer tends to favour ridges of high pressure from Europe to the vicinity of the UK.

Trouble is, within this there can be significant variation in the strength of that ridge and its northward extent, this relating to the movement of the AAM between phases 5 and 8. I'm not 100% sure but I think phases 5/6 are good for the high extending up to the UK in July/August, while 7/8 favour a stronger jet in the Atlantic tending to flatten the ridge.

If I'm right about that, then last month we could have done with the GWO sticking close to or ideally within 5/6 and moving along nice and slow, rather than heading all the way over to phase 8 at a fair old pace (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/prev60_phase.png - trace the red line back until it meets the green one)

I reckon the N. Atlantic SST situation then took things a step further than we'd normally experience - just hard luck I'm afraid!

At the moment the outlook from GEFS (above displayed image) shows another fast orbit through phases 7-8 which seems to tie in with the weekend ridge having a hard time getting a foothold. Yet then we see the GWO becoming slow moving in the phase 6/7 region while just below the threshold where it has significant influence (some call this phase 0)... perhaps weakly favouring ridges over Europe coming and going. This has certainly been a common theme in recent GFS op runs, though the 12z has gone off on one which lowers the confidence level right after it was just starting to climb 

So concludes my attempt to describe and make use of what is undeniably a very complicated but also very insightful measure of the atmosphere. Don't worry if a lot has gone over your head - I've been looking at it from time to time for more than 12 months and it still isn't entirely clear to me 

Looks like the heat staying over Europe although the S.E and east anglia might catch a bit . Cool out to the west.

Here is the ECM for a week's time: +15 850s well into the SE.  This would represent a further improvement on what is becoming the best summer locally for a long while; with 3 above average mean temperature summer months looking a distinct possibility

There's a very simple rule of thumb - if anything can wrong in our bollox climate it will. On the basis of that the GFS is the form horse and forget about any prolonged warm/heat wave. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs1864.gif

Dodgy temps once again and thankfully the wrong charts are in FI while UKMO are keeping the projected hot weather while GEM keep it clean and simple with prolonged HP days.  I am going for those 2 as we are over due for nationwide HP days, until now it haven't arrived yet this month despite Met kept going on about settled August.  GFS have a extreme heat at the end but it been showing this to occur from mid August for few days now, it a outlier at the moment but if this showing again and again the more members will join the 20C uppers. 

Predictably UKMO not as good this morning. The Azores high doesn't make it. GFS just looks a complicated mess. Can't even be bothered to look at ECM

Yes, if this summer could be summed up in a picture it would be the temperature anomaly chart for the coming 7 days (the third picture)

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

While we don't look like getting the holy grail of settled spells according to the models, what I would say is that prospects for next week do generally look a bit better than they have done for the last half-a-dozen weeks, especially for northern areas. The jet stream looks like returning to something nearer it's normal path for the time of year for one thing and pressure over the Greenland region looks lower than it has done at any time since mid-June.

I think that, given what we've had recently, it helps if we keep our expectations in perspective. Where I lve, we've had a grand total of 3 dry days in 3 weeks!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY AUG 6TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A depression lies close to Southern Iceland with a WSW flow across the UK weakening slowly. A new but weakening depression will drifts towards SW England later tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with rain at times especially over the North and West. Some dry and at times warmer conditions as well especially over the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow still blowing NE across Southern Britain over the next day or so. It then relocates further NW near Scotland at the weekend slipping back slowly SE early next week. This portion of the flow also weakens through next week with a new arm well to the NW which later dips sharply South over the Atlantic and returning North close to western Britain late in week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a ridge developing close to Southern Britain at the weekend. At the same time troughs n a strong WSW flow over the North work their way SE over the UK weakening as they do. By midweek pressure is building NE across the UK with a High forming to the East of the UK by next weekend. pressure then falls to the West and SW with a more unsettled and cooler phase for most parts. Pressure then recovers well in the second week, again to the East and sending very warm or hot air across the UK before a thundery low moves North into Southern areas at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a ridge too developing close to Southern Britain with things warming up down here and becoming quite humid and sometimes rather cloudy over the weekend and next week. The North remains more changeable with rain at times up to midweek. The Control Run diverges somewhat from the Operational from then on keeping pressure very slack across the UK and with weak Low pressure floating about some showers, thundery in places are likely most days before a deep Low over the Atlantic through the second week freshens things up somewhat in a SW breeze and rain at times chiefly in the North and West.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days still show a lot of High pressure dominance across the UK in the shape of a ridge of High pressure with the greatest chance of any divergence from this pattern likely from Low pressure to the North of the UK affecting the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure ridging across the far South at the weekend with a fresh WSW flow across the North with rain at times. As the troughs bringing this rain weakens by midweek next week the WSW flow decays and is replaced by a High pressure ridge across the Central swathe of the UK. Thundery Low pressure may creep up from Europe to affect the South while the best weather for once may be over Scotland later next week with warm conditions for most of the UK by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show weakening fronts moving SE across the UK at the weekend and becoming slow moving over Southern England by Monday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today offers a similar pattern to the rest giving the South a fine and warm weekend and start to next week. The WSW flow in the North will decay by midweek as pressure patterns become slack across the UK. Apart from the risk of the odd thundery shower breaking out in the South at times the rest of the run seems set fair with High pressure ridging across the UK ensuring fine and warm weather for many with just the far North at risk of some rain by the end of the run as troughs to the North skirt by.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the build of pressure too from the SW across the far South of Britain at the weekend with the unsettled WSW flow further North weakening through the early days of next week leading to a spell of benign conditions across the UK as a tenuous ridge of High pressure develops across the UK giving light winds and sunny spells and generally reasonably warm conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning offers up a two pronged attack from a ridge of High pressure from the SW today. In the first instance at the weekend only the far South sees the benefits as the warm conditions here will not be replicated elsewhere. Instead troughs will bring rain at times in a SW breeze to all areas away from the far South and SE. This pattern then subsides by midweek as pressure becomes slack everywhere with the risk of a few showers for a time. The second ridge from the SW is then shown better aligned to bring all of the UK into fine and warm weather before it too declines to a much more unsettled period late next week and over the weekend as rain or thundery showers become much more prolific as Low pressure crosses and lies to the West of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  this morning shows the same pattern as previously for the position we're likely to lie under in 10 days time. Low pressure is shown up to the NW with a trough close to Western Britain with slack winds across the UK. With pressure between it's members ranging from 1005mbs in the far NW to 1015 in the far SW no doubt some showery rain and temperatures close to average and at best only slightly above seem the likely result of such a pattern

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show some improvements across the UK today though there is varying degrees of extent and duration of this theme.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.6 pts followed by GFS at 83.4 and UKMO at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.2 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.7 pts to 33.3 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS I find the long term projections of the models very hard to quantify this morning as they offer a more than usual degree of uncertainty with regard to specific details as we move from the second weekend and through into the following week. There is a degree of certainty on the fact that pressure is going to build strongly close to Southern Britain at the weekend with increasingly warm and humid weather as a result down here. There is also agreement on troughs moving down into this High pressure from the NW giving rise to a lot of cloud and some rain across the North and West. From that point on models start to diverge somewhat on specifics but in general do indicate a period of slack pressure and the risk of showers for a time before a second build of pressure from the SW looks likely towards the end of next week. Being better aligned on a trajectory that includes all of the UK sharing in some fine and warm conditions one would think that it might hang around in situ for a while but the output which extends beyond that point quickly show it breaking down into lower pressure again, be it from the NW, West or South with rain at times, some thundery returning quite widely across the UK. It seems an almost impossible task for the models to hold enough High pressure across the UK for any length of time this Summer to give the UK a decent and extended period of Summer weather. Nevertheless, for Northern locations there is at least some prospect of some better days than of late with temperatures eventually entering the warm category here too though patience until the end of next week will have to be adhered. For the South things remain acceptable with just some occasional perhaps thundery rain and some occasional if short bursts of very warm or hot weather possible at times. Looking on a broad scale judgement however you dress this Summer up and it has been OK down here in the South for much of the time there has certainly been a drought in the amount of dominant High Pressure lying across the UK this year with the best weather always lying just the other side of the channel on mainland Europe and while for many Northerners it has been one to forget it certainly won't go down as being noteworthy down here either especially in terms of long term average temperatures despite below average rainfall. While this morning's output will deliver improvements for the North in the coming weeks the South will probably notice the difference rather less as to me there still doesn't look like any sustained and guaranteed hot conditions other than the odd day between much more average sort of conditions for August.

Next update from 09:00 Friday Aug 7th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Warmer and drier next week;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looks like a fairly nice week though maybe "wobbling" later...

Video start's off with a look at TWO's fantastic new Hi-Def charts!

Yes and here we've had one day reach 20c since July 11th!

I agree though, it does look a bit better over the coming 10 days or so. The 6z GFS paints a pretty dry picture for here.

12z GFS accumulated precip.  Looking mainly dry for many, with many places less than 2mm over the next  almost 5 days.

The summer of the  Tees-Ex line continues

My Geography teacher always went on about the Ex-Tees line, never heard anybody else mention it until today, 40yrs later. But its true and does happen alot

The Tees-Exe line actually refers to geography, north of the line is upland, south is lowland, but in terms of weather it makes sense too. Today was a good example of that - we had sunny spells and a top temp of around 22C, while Manchester hovered around 18-19C.

The Tees-Exe line is applicable in terms of geology, rainfall, relief and a number of other things besides, Im sure people could offer many.  But yes, its a useful geographical tool.

Plenty of satisfactory warmth on offer from GFS this evening, but ECM's thrown out a bit of a wildcard as it makes a lot more of a shortwave feature running N of the UK, throwing more in the way of Atlantic air across us accompanied by some rain and showers.

Not only that but the run is very aggressive with the Atlantic trough from day 6 onward. It's in line with a recent GFS trend but for day 6 (Wednesday) has deepened the low 5mb further than GFS has dared to on any op run so far.

UKMO has the weakest trough and so looks most promising going forward:

Hopefully we'll at least see the trough holding back further west than ECM shows - something more like GFS is fair enough I feel. I like how that model keeps things interesting during lower-res (days 10-16) as well.

In theory, the expected GWO evolution that I talked about yesterday evening should support the trough tending to back west, indeed the whole pattern doing so, with hot air edging in from SE of the UK generally. Having said that, the AAM could do with being more positive... but past performances do suggest that the AAM is often underdone in the forecasts - so I can see reasons to be hopeful despite the ECM trend (and GEM's pretty vicious by days 9-10 too).

ECM and UKMO 00z op runs don't look too bad though for next week, especially the latter.

More like bad deal to me as if you see UK should had got this heat nationwide instead of living off warm crumbs from the continent which are useless and boring set-up. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2102.gif

20C almost everywhere if this LP didn't have to be too near and denied us getting this but allowed Scandi getting all the heat nationwide.  I would imagine Scotland would be enjoying low 30's which have a right to deserve this after a very poor summer up there and mid to high 30's here in London very easily as we have a right to be member of the EU heat like we used to get easily in the 90's nationwide hot spells.