HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY AUG 7TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An area of slack pressure covers the UK with a weak Low pressure to the SW filling up. A ridge of High pressure then builds across the UK tonight and tomorrow from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with a little rain at times. Some dry and at times warm conditions are likely for all areas as well.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow realigning near the NW of Scotland over the next day or so before slipping SE and weakening through next week. A weak or ill defined flow around the UK then develops for some while before signs of a West to East strengthening of the flow over the Atlantic and perhaps the British Isles develops by the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the ridge across the far South of the UK at the weekend and the fresher SW flow over the North with some rain. through next week pressure becomes slack with some showers midweek before a further short-lived build of pressure NE across the UK develops. By next weekend thundery low pressure edges up into southern Britain coupled with falling pressure from the west or NW and some rain is likely for all for a time before a North/South split in the weather is hinted at in the far reaches of the run with the best of changeable conditions then likely over the South and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in the sequence of events through the first week as the early weeks SW flow decays with fronts in situ breaking the rain down in the NW into a scattering of showers everywhere midweek. Pressure builds across the UK wth several fine days before a thundery low edges up from the South. Through week 2 this lifts away North and the second week looks rather better than the operational run with High pressure building across the UK with fine and warm weather for most likely with another breakdown shown to the SW right at the runs end.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days show a lot of High pressure embracing the UK in the shape of a ridge at least and supporting a lot of fine and warm weather likely across the UK at that time. Just a 15% group of members show more changeable Atlantic driven weather at the same time point.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure ridging across the UK towards the middle of next week as the fresh SW flow with troughs over the North and West early in the week decay away. After some rain then a few showers towards Tuesday a lot of fine and dry weather should develop for many areas with the hint of a thundery shower in the South towards a weeks time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a series of slow moving fronts across Southern and Eastern Britain early next week with occasional rain slowly dying out as the fronts are shown to be weakening as pressure builds across them.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today is very similar to the rest of the output in regard to the weakening fronts lying across the UK early in the week with any rain breaking up into scattered showers midweek. Pressure then rises from the SW across the UK with quite widespread dry and fine weather likely and this pattern then gradually changes back to the point we are at this weekend with Northern and Western areas becoming cooler and more changeable with rain at times while the South stays drier and brighter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the SW flow with accompanying troughs lying across Northern and Western Britain at the weekend gradually weakening into a more showery interlude towards midweek as the winds fall light. Then after a dry and warm couple of days across the UK from a ridge a thundery low pulls up from France towards Southern Britain with the best weather reverting to the North while the South, though warm and humid become at risk of thundery showers by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning is a very messy run which shows a mix of conditions across the UK through the period. The innitial fresh SW flow with cloud and rain at times early next week weakens as winds fall light and breaks any rain left into scattered showers. Then through Wednesday and Thursday dry and fine weather looks likely as a High pressure ridge builds across the South at least. The end of the run looks very indecisive this morning with no pressure system high or low having overall control with as a result benign and often dry weather with some sunshine and the occasional sharp shower likely as a result along with moderately warm conditions in any sunshine.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening shows the same pattern as previously for the position we're likely to lie under in 10 days time. Low pressure is shown up to the NW with a trough close to Western Britain with slack winds across the UK. With pressure between it's members ranging from 1005mbs in the far NW to 1015 in the far SW no doubt some showery rain and temperatures close to average and at best only slightly above seem the likely result of such a pattern

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show some improvements across the UK again today though there is very little cross model support for any one evolution.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 94.8 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.9 pts followed by GFS at 83.6 and UKMO at 83.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.5 pts over GFS's 53.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.6 pts to 33.3 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The models today have served up another cocktail of long term projections that show a variety of evolutions likely over the second week none of which can be categorized into cross model support. In Week 1 there is a lot of common ground with a fresh SW flow across the North and West over the weekend with fronts becoming hung up near Southern Britain with occasional rain at times. As the parent Low moves away north all output shows a slackening of pressure across the UK midweek with a scattering of showers for a time. Pressure at the same time builds across the UK so that the latter days of next week look largely fine and dry with some warm sunshine. From that point on disagreements come into effect with some output suggesting a thundery Low moving up from the South while other draw in more Atlantic driven weather from the West or NW. We then have to look towards the longer term projections from GEM, GFS and ECM to gain a clue from what happens thereafter and to be quite frank I don't know from this morning's crop of charts. GFS Clusters indicate a lot of High pressure near the UK with resultant fine and warm weather for many no doubt while GEM shows the likelihood of a more North/South split in the weather under Westerly winds while ECM at 10 days is very indecisive showing slack pressure and a mix of sunshine and scattered showers the most likely events. It's 10 day mean chart maintains the theme of slack pressure too with something of a trough South from Iceland and light winds likely across the UK which has been consistent for days now. So putting all this together and arriving at an outcome remains difficult but can be summarised by saying that though changeable with a little rain at times is likely over the next few weeks there will be a lot of pleasantly warm and dry weather too, even in the North with nothing particularly unpleasant to report upon for anyone over the period. As a footnote I think it is fair to highlight this represents a vast improvement for Northerners than they have seen so far this summer.

Next update from 09:00 Saturday Aug 8th 2015

Just looked at the met office forecast for Tuesday and now it looks like the thundery rain is coming earlier as it was forecast for wed-thursday. 

Yup! It applies to some women who like to lead a man on then dump him as well....no wait, I'm confusing that with ex-tease...

Morning! The core of the heat tomorrow is forecast to be in the SE as fronts swoop in from the NW:

For today meanwhile it is forecast in central southern areas as there is an easterly drift:

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY AUG 8TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lies NE across the UK today. The ridge collapses SE tonight and tomorrow to lie in the English Channel while a fresh SW flow develops over the UK with troughs weakening as they move SE over Britain tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with a little rain at times. Some dry and at times warm conditions are likely for all areas as well.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving NE across Northern Britain with the axis gradually feeding further SE over the coming days. The flow then steadily weakens close to Southern Britain before becoming generally quite slack though still troughed well South over the Atlantic and later towards the UK once more..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the ridge across the far South of the UK weakening as the fronts moving down from the NW on Sunday and Monday weaken too and the accompanying SW flow lightens. occasional rain and drizzle will largely break up into showers by Tuesday. at the same time pressure falls from the South and a thundery spell of weather develops across Southern and Eastern Britain with a drier spell in the North. Then Westerly winds with rain at times looks likely as Low pressure to the North and NW returns with the best of the drier and warmer weather  back towards Southern Britain late in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run looks broadly similar, certainly in the first week with the ridge of High pressure developing across the North towards midweek and a thundery low to the SE. The weather turns changeable generally at the end of Week 1 before week 2 shows a mix of a High pressure ridges followed by a Low pressure cell moving slowly North-east or North over the UK to leave the UK in a NW flow at the end of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days are not quite as good as yesterday morning's today as they indicate High pressure likely to be parked out over the Atlantic with a ridge only towards Southern Britain but with more influence from a West or NW flow over all areas with rain at times particularly towards the North and West.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows increasingly thundery conditions developing next week as the SW flow weakens from all but Scotland by Tuesday with warm and humid air in place. Wednesday sees Low pressure edge into Southern Britain from Europe continuing in situ up to the end of the week with thundery showers in warm and close conditions while the North sees the best of the drier weather and just occasional rain on Thursday from an Atlantic trough.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a series of troughs weakening as they move SE into Southern Britain over the coming days. They remain active enough to give cloud, occasional light rain and eventually thundery showers as humid and unstable air reinvigorates them by midweek when the North sees drier and brighter conditions.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a SW flow with embedded troughs too moving SE into Southern Britain early next week. A ridge then develops across Central Britain but the old troughs get reinvigoration from thundery instability moving up from Europe close to the SE. So thundery showers become a risk in the South from midweek with the best weather in the North before a gradual change to cooler and more changeable conditions with rain at times look likely from later next weekend as Low pressure feeds slowly East over the UK from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar route in bringing a thundery continental Low North close to SE Britain midweek with warm and close conditions developing after the innitial days of cloud and a little rain early next week. After the first few days the best of the drier and brighter conditions transfer to the NW of the UK close to a ridge from the SW..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the thundery Low further to the East and as a result probably only affecting SE Britain with dry and bright weather elsewhere and pleasantly warm in any sunshine. Then as winds settled NW'ly for a time it will likely become a little cooler with just a few showers in the East before a North/South split in the weather gradually returns with rain at times for all but more especially in the North and West with longer dry spells for the South and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows a Westerly feed across the Atlantic towards the British Isles with no doubt some influence across the UK given Low pressure lies to the NW and High pressure near the Azores. The likely result is a familiar tone of rain at times, chiefly in the North and West with longer drier, warmer and brighter weather towards the South and SE..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models trend changeable today with various options between the models desiring a return to Atlantic airflow domination in the longer term.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.9 pts followed by GFS at 83.9 and UKMO at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.3 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.7 pts to 34.0 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Details of large scale changes are non apparent again this morning as the models serve up yet another cocktail of options on specific weather events over the coming two weeks, none of which have major implications for any one area in particular. In sequential order it looks like a SW flow will develop across the UK over the next three days with a series of troughs moving SE across the UK, weakening as they do and becoming slow moving over the South early next week but delivering occasional rain and drizzle where they lie. Behind them a ridge builds across the North but humid and thundery air over Europe looks like reinvigorating the troughs in the South to increase the risk of heavy and thundery showers for the rest of next week. While warm or locally very warm cloud amounts will deter the very highest temperatures but it is likely to feel close and humid. The North at this time look at long last likely to have some reasonable if not memorable conditions at this time. Then all models seem to then want to use this thundery Low to the SE as a catalyst to return a more Atlantic influence back across the UK through week 2 to a greater or lesser degree depending on which model you look at. What this would likely mean at the surface is a fall back in temperature to nearer average, less humidity but dare I say it a more North/South split in the weather again with rain at times for all but a lot of dry and bright weather in between especially for the South. The models seem to be really struggling at the moment which is quite a common occurrence when pressure conditions are generally quite slack as they look like being over the second half of next week meaning long term projections come with a lower than normal degree of confidence. I will say though that the ECM longer term projection illustrated by it's 10 day mean chart each day has been consistent in maintaining a loose westerly bias across the UK at the 10 day time point for several weeks now and this continues this morning. It's verification statistics listed above have shown this to be the right call and alone has not been sucked in by High Summer synoptics occasionally thrown out by some of the other output only to be watered down in later runs. So where that leaves us is in a continuing changeable theme of weather which looks much better than recently for the North but much the same for the South as occasional rain or showers looks the order of the next two weeks for many and while warm and humid but typical August conditions look likely there may well end up a more even distribution between amounts of rainfall having fallen North to South at the end of the next two weeks than has been the case so far this Summer.

Next update from 09:00 Monday Aug 10th 2015

On the thundery low front:-

Assuming we get to the day and the pattern verifies it's been a pretty good 'spot' from the GFS and ECM, both of which have been pretty solid in showing this from about T216 out.

Kind of sums up the summer there too - very occasional breakdowns in the South East but generally warm, contrasted with much more of an Atlantic influence the further North West you head, with accompanying cooler air from the Atlantic too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs1202.gif

Surprised how quiet here despite a good 12z runs and possible low 30's on that day and rest of run around mid 20's to 30's next week before dropping back to low to mid 20's further on.  What a pity the heat would occur on a week day.

What a difference a day makes... the Euro low is further west on most output this evening which allows E&W to benefit from a greater amount of warmth imported from the SE, particularly on the GFS 12z op run.

ECM isn't far away, but has a bombing low near Iceland on Thursday which seems a bit over the top. Yet the Scandi High still holds up against it pretty well... a weaker low could find itself unable to move the high at all, in which case we could see those warm easterlies tending to hold their ground more.

Both models seem to be holding the Atlantic a lot further (N)W than they were this time yesterday. Suddenly we find ourselves being helped out by the Scandi High as it entices ridges to build across from the Azores. That sounds a lot like June-July 2014, though more settled this time around based on current model output.

All in all, a pleasing amount of 'warm days' potential on this fine summer's evening 

I'd be well happy with a decent august: sustained dryness, with a warmer (mid-20's upwards) couple of bursts. I'd excuse the poor July if this happened 

Then again, many a slip, etc, etc...

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY AUG 9TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A moist SW flow covers the UK today as weakening fronts move SE over the UK. Another front will move NE over Southern areas tonight followed by a fresher westerly airflow later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with some rain at times. Some dry and at times warm, humid conditions are likely for all areas as well.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving NE across Britain over the next few days moving SE and weakening.The main arm of the flow then dives SE towards Spain later this week with the UK lying under a trough. This pattern changes only slowly in Week 2 with what flow there is continuing to reside further South than is ideal for good weather across the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the SW or west flow of the next few days weakening away by midweek as pressure builds across Central areas midweek. A thundery Low pressure area is then shown to feed north from France and amalgamates with Low pressure from the NW by the weekend with the whole complex system lifting North out of Britain next weekend. So after a some rain at first Central regions dry up midweek before thundery showers in warm and humid weather affect the South. Later in the week bith thundery weather in the South and Low pressure fronts from the NW give an unsettled and cooler spell for all before the North see a fine settled period in the second week, at least for a time before a rerun of week 1 looks likely as thundery low pressure moves up once more from the South

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is quite similar in structure but is less bullish about the influence from both thundery low pressure from the South and the NW later this week with generally slacker conditions giving rise to less outbreaks of rain and more in the way of benign weather types right out to the end of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days show quite an even split between fine conditions under a ridge especially over Southern Britain in two weeks time and an equal split in members who prefer more unsettled weather under Low pressure close to Northern Britain

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure developing across Central Britain midweek with thundery low pressure moving up from the South. Then later in the week pressure falls from the NW too ending the run in a complex Low pressure zone near to South-east and NW Britain bringing cooler air to all with thundery rain at times next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a wrath of fronts crossing east and SE across Britain over the next 48 hours followed by a simplification by midweek as pressure builds across central areas and thundery Low pressure brings further fronts North into Southern Britain at the end of the week in warm and humid Easterly winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today follows a similar route to the rest edging thundery rain up into the South later this week as the current SW flow weakens over the coming days and pressure builds briefly across Central Britain. Thereafter Low pressure from both the SE and NW combine to bring a spell of more unsettled and cooler conditions as winds settle Westerly from next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps the axis of low pressure further to the east than the rest with the same ridge as other output shows midweek lying across Central areas. With the axis further to the East less effect with regard to thundery rain or rain from the NW looks likely with drier weather and more sporadic showers likely for a time later this week before a North/South split develops again by the end of next weekend with most rain by then in the North and West

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the thundery Low further to the West over France than NAVGEM with the resultant weather being more thundery over the South from midweek edging North. As pressure becomes slack and eventually High to the NE many northern areas will see the best of the conditions later in the period with some warm sunshine and mainly dry conditions. Southern and especially SW areas of the UK later will always lie at risk of further thundery conditions especially late in the period as pressure falls over the SW approaches.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening maintains the general theme of Low pressure to the NW and High to the SW maintaining a slack Westerly feed across the UK with the best conditions likely to be towards the South outside of any thundery outbreaks in any warmth fed up from Europe

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models trend changeable today with various options between the models desiring a return to Atlantic airflow domination in the long term.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 94.6 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.0 pts followed by GFS at 84.2 and UKMO at 84.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.1 pts over GFS's 54.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.0 pts to 33.2 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS There is some coming together of the output this morning, certainly within the first week although with small synoptic differences still present from some output could have radical effects n local differences in weather at the surface. In general this week looks quite warm and humid especially at first and again from midweek in the South. early rain in the South should give way to brighter and fresher weather over Tuesday and Wednesday as ridge builds across Central Britain. Pressure will then fall across France and it looks increasingly like it could turn quite thundery across Southern Britain from midweek. In addition the ridge across Central regions where it could be quite a dry week will be superseded by Low pressure from both the SE and NW next weekend probably forming a Low complex near to our shores with a cooler and unsettled phase next weekend. This is where the togetherness in the models fall apart as a variety of options are shown then ranging from a return to a North/South split in conditions to a generally more unsettled period as Low pressure close to the North return westerly winds and rain at times for many. However, I strongly believe that Week 2 belongs in never never land at the moment and until the fine detail of the latter stages of this week are sorted Week 2 could go one of many ways at the moment. However, looking at what looks more certain this week many places will end up warm and humid but unless the sun breaks up a lot of the predicted large cloud amounts high temperatures will be very localised and when thundery rain comes along later in the week in the South some redress of balance in rainfall amounts between north and South looks likely. All in all then a typical August week to come with something for everybody but never overly cool or wet.

Next update from 09:00 Monday Aug 10th 2015

Thank you Martin.   Average week is ok..  Things to do outside or in the shed.

Could turn very wet for the south from mid week onwards with a risk of thunder.

The most summery chart I have seen all summer, just a pity it is 10 days out.

Likely to happen on Friday will be dry and very warm this coming week until Friday before the storms come in and then drier and cooler at the weekend which is a waste than having it other way round.. 17C uppers to arrive on Thursday so low 30's possible while from today to Wed around mid to high 20's and dry.

Lets just hope that verifies.

It is a while off, but the way I look at it is that it has more chance of coming off at 240hrs ahead than it would have at 384hrs on a GFS run!

When we got the heat on 1st July that when Europe started the heat wave and continue until next week when we finally get something hot enough here at 30C or low 30's on Thursday on the last day, after that Europe loses it heat and that all folks for 2015 summer.  After a cooler settling down next weekend it will become nationwide HP days with temperatures not much difference between here and Europe.

UKMO looking warm at day 4:

Predictably, that glorious set up has been dropped from the 12z .  Still, relatively benign weather overall in the latest output

Barring a couple of half decent days this week the general outlook is crap. 

GFS 12z has maxes of 27 along S Coast in a NEly on Tuesday, and warm  from Sussex to Dorset, and a similar picture Wednesday.

No change and still going for hot weather on Wed and Thursday before the storms come on Friday then quickly move northward to allow a settled nationwide weather over the weekend with reasonable low 20's temps.   Hope the 30's temps this week won't be the last one and hope to see once more later this month or early September to make up for the loss of having a proper hot spell this summer.