I think I will wait and see where this one ecm run sits within its ensembles before saying its gone pear shaped.

ECM ensembles - yesterday's 12z top, today's 0z bottom. Wobble, wobble...

(The majority are still cold, but only just!)

Haven't seen ECM 00z ENS but from the other sets the GFS does show this option of the Atlantic low from the control and Op but it still is an outlier. MOGREPS doesn't appear to have this low at all with almost every member a northerly by next weekend.

Looks like the outliers for warmer conditions are causing larger variability. The median values still sit pretty close to the previous run though?

The thing that stands out for me the most about this morning's model runs is the difference at T+144 between the UKMO solution and that of ECM & GFS. Whereas UKMO have us under a northerly airflow with a large HP in the mid-atlantic and the LP system having moved into the continent, GFS and ECM still have low pressure sitting more or less directly over us, much as per this weekend.

When there is disagreement between the big three at only 144hrs ahead, nothing should be assumed one way or the other in my view.

Agree Brian.I think  the much maligned  Met office have played a blinder so far this winter -clear in their longer term  forecasts of NAO + conditions but recognizing occasional threats  of colder conditions but putting appropriate probabilities on them happening.Lets hope that there longer term  view of likely blocking in February delivers.

Yes. The 25 colder runs look just as cold as they were yesterday, but some of the 25 milder runs have gone milder.

So, to be optimistic, the chances of prolonged cold are just as high as they were 12 hrs ago on the ECM ensemble, but if the cold doesn't come off, it's more likely to be mild mush rather than just cool.

Stats, eh?! 

Dutch ecm ensembles.

The ECM ensembles are quite telling really. There is still massive uncertainty, and this morning the op runs have taken the mild option. Clearly it is a knife-edge situation that leads to two dramatically different scenarios with not much middle ground (at least initially - there is a clear gap between the clusters).

Think Jeff Goldblum and his drop of water on the back of wossername's hand in Jurassic Park...

Yes, the majority of ECM members are in the colder camp and ensemble means are rather pointless in this situation, next Friday/Saturday we either going one way or the other...

Depressing isn't it.  

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 8TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery trough will move East over England and Wales this morning followed by a SW flow. The persistent trough over NE Scotland will ease away Northeast today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies between 1700ft asl over NE Scotland to nearer 3500ft across Southern England. Snow is expected across higher Scottish hills today, tonight and tomorrow and extending to higher Northern English hills as well with time.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over the first week before slowly returning to a SW to NE flow across the UK later in the run.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows unsettled conditions throughout the period this morning. The Low pressure complex currently to the West of the UK will move East across the UK through the weekend and the first half of next week. Colder air will seep South to all of the UK with a mix of rain, sleet and snow at times for all, the snow chiefly over the higher ground and in the North. Then late next week and through Week 2 Low pressure from the Azores is shown to move NE across the NW with wet and windy conditions and average temperatures returning to all areas a theme which then sees us through to the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run today with solid support for colder conditions for all of the UK for a time next week with some snow in places. Low pressure remains largely in control too reinforced on a more northerly latitude as we enter the second week with a return to wet and windy conditions at times for all areas through Week 2 in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure clear East out of the UK early next week with a NW then Northerly flow across the UK through the early and middle part of next week. Rain and showers with snow on hills at first will turn more to snow showers near coastal regions and dry frosty weather inland through the middle days of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data reasonably well this morning with the complex Low pressure and trough complex across the UK this weekend simplifying to a cold and showery NW or North flow early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning brings colder conditions across the UK next week too but then begins to follow a more GFS type route with milder and wet weather sweeping back NE across England and Wales later in the period and leaving Scotland only in the risk of any snow or sleet in colder air by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains its theme of cold weather extending to all of the UK next week in a Northerly sourced airflow. With troughing scattered about across the UK there will probably be showery outbreaks of sleet and snow especially near the coasts while inland frosts will be much more pronounced than recently.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today continues to show an excursion towards more seasonal conditions for a time next week though the progress and extent as far as Southern Britain is muted. Nevertheless it will become cold and brighter with wintry showers next week before Low pressure from the SW brings rain preceded by snow in places displacing any deep cold before High pressure follows across the UK from the West with High pressure parked across the UK with cold, crisp days and frosty nights for many by day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is still quite a good one for those seeking cold with the pressure much higher over Greenland at day 10 than the operational shows meaning that many members must be going for this more wintry set-up. Low pressure is hinted at too close to the UK and to the SW with pressure also programmed to be high again over Spain and Portugal. So this chart is not very useful today in indicating 10 day prospects.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output continues to favour cold weather developing but much more short-lived and widespread than thought earlier especially from GFS.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 88.1 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.7 pts over GFS's 63.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.5 pts to 46.2 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The synoptics across the UK continue to paint a bleak picture at least in the shorter term with regard to pressure remaining Low with spells of rain and showers for almost anywhere with snow on the hills as a Low pressure complex drifts slowly East across the UK over the weekend and start to next week. This continues to bring the risk of flooding to areas which least need it and temperatures though cold in the North will see average temperatures in the South. Then next week a change is still predicted to take place from all the models as colder air is still likely to spread South to all areas for a time. The method of how this takes place is extremely messy with the problem seeming to be the failure to clear the complex Low pressure across the UK cleanly East to Europe which if occurred would enable a clean sweep for cold Northerlies to come down across all of the UK and leading to a cold spell. Unfortunately this morning GFS and to some extent GEM has developed a theme that a Low pressure area near the Azores will be attracted towards the UK later next week due to the failure to clear Low pressure cleanly East out of the UK and with pressure rising over Spain aiding it to be pulled NE towards Scotland and ending a very muted cold period as far as the South of Britain is concerned. It would also bring a lot more rain and hill snow to areas that need to dry out and also create a lot of disappointment in those folks looking forward to what look liked for a while a prolonged cold period. Interestingly on the ECM Operational this morning all High pressure near Greenland has vanished by Day 10 but at least it's ensemble data is less dramatic about the weakening of pressure there. I think what we are seeing this morning is proof of how difficult it is to get cold into the UK in the first place let alone it lasting any considerable time. This spell looks to be going much the same way and while it will get colder next week the intensity, extent and longevity have all been drastically reduced today. However, there is still some days to go before any cold arrives and that means plenty of model swings both up and down in the days ahead and while I have to admit some disappointment in the models today I still feel all is not lost next week with some surprise developments in favour of snow and cold still likely to crop up.

Next Update on Saturday January 8th 2016 at 09:00 approx

Though not the polar bears, the snow caption and gritting lorry of yesterday jinxed things! I think you should all blame Brian

Note: I see Brian has promptly amended his home page headline to reflect the uncertainty.

Gfs P thus far

 To be fair yesterday's homepage update reflected the uncertainty too:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/frozen-in-time-detail.aspx?id=3005