My God - talk about a complete turn around.

This has echoes of the 2001 fiasco. A number of reputable independents quoted this morning in the press are going for a significant cold spell. The Met Office may well come out on top again like they did back then.

Except they won't, because 99% of the people who read the press forecasts for cold will still blame the Met Office for "getting it wrong" when Arcticgeddon doesn't materialise 

It's odd really that this morning's Fax chart for Monday 12z seems "better" in terms of that meandering Low than last night's was for the same time:
Last Night:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif
This morning:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

...especially when you consider how GFS plays around with it at the same time period.

if you click on those members at around that time in panel view some don't look bad at all

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=156

I don't think many long term model watchers will be surprised though many will be sorely disappointed (again).

The script for these bad movies is always like this -

(1) mouth watering cold spell starts to appear in some perturbations in deep FI

(2) ensembles clusters increasingly appear to back it up, including some Op and control runs

(3) it gets closer and a five day spell begins to look very possible, though there a a number of "unlikely" mild outliers in the ensemble

(4) then on one run the cold onset gets delayed

(5) another run and the deep cold doesn't penetrate far south and -10 upper disappear entirely from the ensemble suite

(6) more and more ensemble members show a quick return to normal zonality

(7) the core of the cold spell gets shortened until it is merely a blip

(8) models show no cold air geting to the south at all

(9) final denouement: a glancing blow of cold air to the east cost of Scotland

The End

as ever as Peter said you can log out but you cant leave, its like being in jail at times.

It certainly did, yes

In a general sense, I think things tend to slip back once the media latch on and to a degree, even in here. The return of Gusty Steve and the big increase in the site traffic can only jinx things. Almost every time, without fail, lol.

Recommended reading for some in this thread:

(I'm not saying it's not all going to go T-U, but the final outcome is far from pinned down yet)

I don't know why, but I was thinking about Pete Tong when looking at this morning's output.

Still plenty of winter left yet for cold spells.

we have had 5 weeks which haven't delivered . . . . what makes you think the next 7 weeks will be any different ??

I take full resposibility Mike. The rot started to set in during the 18z GFS run. Just a couple of hours after my return. I shall now go back into hiding for a while. Upgrades will soon follow.  

The second part is important, of course, but as for the first, as far as I know the models don't care what time of year it is or where a particular low pressure is, and whether that is usual or unusual. They just take the starting point in the atmosphere of temperature, wind speed, pressure etc etc and apply the same physical interactions as they do on every run. The idea that models should struggle with "unusual" pressure patterns makes no more sense to me than the idea that a calculator should struggle with particular numbers.

Weird, there's been a change in style on the fax charts. They now look computer generated rather than hand drawn, with angular isobars and the Ls and Hs much smaller.

Look at the cold air going to Greece as usual.

This morning's one does, last night's is in the old style. Perhaps no-one wanted to do this morning's, so they just gave the chimp some sharpies.

4 of those weeks were exceptional.  We are now entering a run of more seasonal weather and there is nothing in the model output to suggest that a return to December's exceptional warmth is on the cards.   With more normal weather patterns there is always a greater likelihood of some colder than usual weather in the south as well.

Also noting the long term seasonal expectation from the MetO and others that February will likely be the coldest month this winter.

Here's the GEFS6z update:

This what happened last summer when I see models always showing very hot temps in every country of Europe except UK and Ireland missed out so this happening again.  It getting extremely difficult to get hot or cold air in nowadays and become far more temperate.  The temps in December was only a fraction lower than summer temps in here while up north almost the same.