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richardabdn
19 June 2017 10:08:31


 


I wonder what you'd have made of Fort William's weather last week my friend. I was there from last Sunday until Saturday just gone and in that time we had a grand total of one mostly dry day! All the others saw either one shower after another or persistent rain/drizzle.


Aberdeen was at least due to have a rather better weekend than NW Scotland was due to get.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Your description of the weather in Fort William sounds no different to what we had last week though obviously it should be a lot better here than the west coast but that doesn't seem to be the case any more. 


Like I said we have just had one completely dry day all month which was Saturday. Sunday started good but by late afternoon it was chucking it down and the gauge picked up another 6mm. Today started nice but already the dark grey clouds have moved in. It's just relentless and if model output is accurate we will set a new rainfall record this month with way more rain than either June 2007 or 2012 produced 


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moomin75
19 June 2017 10:23:56
Signs of a potential reload on the 6z post 144hrs. In fact the warmth never leaves the south east and although cooler for sure, it looks like staying mainly dry for the foreseeable and then possibly warming up again this time next week.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
19 June 2017 10:33:43
A week away this, but if this shifts, say, 100 miles further West we will really tap into heat from the south again.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif 

As it stands this is warm and potentially thundery but my opinion is this isn't a million miles away from another plume from the south. Mostly dry for the next 7 days in any event.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18011.gif 
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.gif 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1804.gif 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
19 June 2017 10:39:16
Hmmmm..
Then this Autumnal looking chart, it's a Bullseye!!!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
19 June 2017 10:54:23

Just one run thankfully but this run shows the low remaining in situ for almost a week once it sets in. There has been no sign of anything resembling this from other models so should definitely not be taken as read. Having said that the MetO long range update paints a very disappointing picture too. I am not buying this yet. One run and it could all change on the next one.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gavin D
19 June 2017 16:53:32

Could the June temperature record of 1976 be about to go??


Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 18:26:44
Arpege 12z going for an all time June record this Wednesday. 37C!!!!!

#blowtorch

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=50&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C 

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moomin75
19 June 2017 18:28:32

Arpege 12z going for an all time June record this Wednesday. 37C!!!!!

#blowtorch

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=50&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Fab. I have the day off. :)


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 18:32:47


Fab. I have the day off. :)


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


To think that some of the analysts here were suggesting a below average CET June. It beggars belief!


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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moomin75
19 June 2017 18:36:58


 


To think that some of the analysts here were suggesting a below average CET June. It beggars belief!


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

What are your thoughts about the very unsettled GFS 12z? In isolation it looks awful but then I saw the Ensembles which show a lot of scatter quite early and some really hot members showing up again already.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2017 18:59:27

Arpege 12z going for an all time June record this Wednesday. 37C!!!!!

#blowtorch

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=50&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Oh heck!    I don't suppose bikinis are suitable wear for funerals!  


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Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 19:02:42


Oh heck!    I don't suppose bikinis are suitable wear for funerals!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Sorry to hear about your mum. Agree it's not the best weather for funerals or weddings for that matter. I got married in July 99 and I remember it being too hot!


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 19:05:15


What are your thoughts about the very unsettled GFS 12z? In isolation it looks awful but then I saw the Ensembles which show a lot of scatter quite early and some really hot members showing up again already.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I'd sooner let the bowler get me out than the pitch.


Brian Gaze
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David M Porter
19 June 2017 19:30:13

ECM 12z looks a lot better in comparison to it's GFS counterpart.


I would take all output, but especially that from GFS, with a pinch of salt at the moment. Anyone who has followed this model over a long period of time will know that sometimes it has a habit of overdoing lows coming off the atlantic before watering them down somewhat.


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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2017 19:46:07


 


I'd sooner let the bowler get me out than the pitch.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


There are a couple of ensemble runs that would give the near continent the equivalent of a 5th day crumbler in Lahore. P7, P10, P16 and P17 all give France something akin to early August 2003, but 2 months early and with stronger sunshine. P7 peaks the 850s over central France on the 2nd July at around 28C. That would, assuming strong sunshine and subject to keeping a lid on instability, give max temps of 43-46C.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Stormchaser
19 June 2017 20:00:10

 


 


Thanks for the directions to those most mind-boggling of ensemble members Tim 


Amazing to contrast these with the operational run. Interestingly enough, while some of these simply mature the trough further west rather than letting it barrel on east like there's no tomorrow, a couple resemble the ECM 12z run for early next week with a ridge from the Azores over the top of an Iberian 'heat low'.


Goes to show, we really don't have a flying clue what next week is actually going to get up to 


 


I wonder if particularly intense heat plumes can interfere with the efforts by LP systems to move them aside due to there being a huge dome of hot air that resembles a strong ridge in terms of the tropopause height (despite the lowered surface pressure values)...?


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Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 20:01:33


 


There are a couple of ensemble runs that would give the near continent the equivalent of a 5th day crumbler in Lahore. P7, P10, P16 and P17 all give France something akin to early August 2003, but 2 months early and with stronger sunshine. P7 peaks the 850s over central France on the 2nd July at around 28C. That would, assuming strong sunshine and subject to keeping a lid on instability, give max temps of 43-46C.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


 Yes there is some incredible heat around. P16 worth highlighting indeed:



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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doctormog
19 June 2017 20:37:20
I'm hopeful at some stage up here we may get more than a day and a half of heat. The next week seems a little cooler and wetter than average, whereas overall for many southern and central parts the chances of much much warmer and drier conditions remains high.
Bertwhistle
19 June 2017 20:47:42


 


 Yes there is some incredible heat around. P16 worth highlighting indeed:



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


P16 is indeed the one, Brian- a June UK temperature record in there:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/16_246_2mtmpmax.png?cb=697


Not the form horse, of course.


 


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Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 20:50:32


 


P16 is indeed the one, Brian- a June UK temperature record in there:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/16_246_2mtmpmax.png?cb=697


Not the form horse, of course.


 


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Not the form horse as you say. However I think it would possibly lead to an all time record and even a low chance of 40C.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
20 June 2017 00:43:23

Some particular weather events to take note of right now.


North NW Atlantic East and N Norwegian Sea NE Europe, East SE and NE Gulf of Mexico, Eastern USA SE USA, NW USA, Spain, Southern and Eastern Punjab in Pakistan, East and NE SE India, SW Japan, West N and N Central and NE Pacific East NE off Caracas, NW Azores, NW Bay of Biscay and West NW UK, UK Norway Scandinavia Finland NE and NW Europe, the Indus Valley, Punjab Pakistan, the Karakoram and Himalaya Bangladesh, Thailand and Burma SW S Bangladesh and Assam of NE India.


Looked at the Satellite Map and UKMO and the Satellite and Rainfall radars, we are not going to stay dry and hot for too long now. And I had a check of the Bracknell fax charts as well, and looked what is the Indian Monsoon doing.


I can clearly say that there are on increasing regularity and are predicted and tracking along the Gyrating Low Pressure belts recurving Low's and the signal says there is much rain and Low Pressure being reported and recorded and the UKMO is picking this signal up very well indeed, the ECMWF and GFS models have been in opposition with each other then the UKMO and ECMWF take us in the UK along with the areas mention they are right now seeing areas of Thundery storms and some developing Atlantic Tropical Storms two of them of which one is given a name it is approaching the SE off the Southeast Caribbean Islands ENE of Caracas by 300 miles. There is more chance of cool NW winds for the UK with rain bearing frontal Low's Pressure systems cross Ireland N England and Scotland to NE UK N and NE England while even South and SE UK should see more cloudy weather after Wednesday's area of hot and sunny 32 deg C S and SE UK Thurs- Fri- Sat- and Sunday looks packed with West and NW flow bring cool and wetter weather for much of UK (GB).


Today 19th June, and early part of June 20- maybe take a look at the climate re analyzer website and look at how the weather across the Northern Hemisphere is currently enriched with rain packed areas of wind and rain lol!.😆😎⛈☀️🌦🌧🌊☔️🌜.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
bledur
20 June 2017 07:55:59

Looking far more generally unsettled in a weeks time,.


moomin75
20 June 2017 08:27:03
There is no doubt that the models have trended considerably more unsettled. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in denial, which I can never understand. There is nothing in the models currently to suggest a return to summery weather after this week and it could be some time before we see anything similar.
However, I think the absolute limit of accuracy is perhaps a week at best, so I think we could well be seeing altogether different charts a week from now. The heat to our South is immense this year and I will be very surprised if this has been our summer.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
lazy farmer
20 June 2017 08:44:35

hi, first time poster but long time lurker.


Just an observation really I have read this thread for yrs and found it invaluable for planning future operations on the farm.but of late the lack of tolerance of others opinions has saddened me. There is room for everybody on here just because posters  disagree doesn't give them the right to try and bully others off the thread. I have no particular axe to grind in my job we just have to adapt to what every mother natures gives us but just as an example Jires your last post  was  without justification and does nothing to further the debate where was your rebutting evidence ?

some faraway beach
20 June 2017 09:13:23

It has to be said, the 00z GFS ensemble is in the damp-and-below-average-temperatures camp once July starts. Quite firmly so, considering the scatter you usually see at that range. (Posted the Cardiff diagram, 'cos that's nearest where I live.)



2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

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