FWIW I also think overall the summer will end up pretty memorable.

I have this on good authority from friends in the Met Office and Private Weather Companies. I think the rationale is that the jet is more predictable in winter whereas in summer you often get a slack regime that can easily swing in a different direction.

Overnight GEFS has trended warmer and drier during the first week of July. Too early to call #blowtorch but worth watching in the next few days.

Yes Brian and that how it picked up this current heatwave we got already.  I don't expect very high temps again but I think the models will back track the unsettled weather and probably next few runs will carry on and we end up more warm weather around since the continent still hot and hard to shift it away.

The second (less significant but usual) wave of the the European June monsoon is due in the last week of June. All relatively normal. I'm expecting the settled conditions and warmth to return in early July.

FWIW next weeks cool and cyclonic looking setup is a recipe for tasty convection and afternoon thunderstorms but with cooler nights for sleeping.

What is pretty certain going by the latest output is that the weather is likely to be a good deal cooler as well as more changeable as we head into next week than has been the case generally over the past week or so. The heatwave that ended last night never quite made it up to the north of Scotland although parts of southern, central and eastern Scotland did not badly last weekend and at the start of this week.

Beyond next week, who knows, but what I think is quite clear now is that for some of the country at least, June has been a somewhat better month for weather than was being predicted by some here a fortnight or so back. The models are also at times hinting of it possibly becoming more settled again as we head into July, so it's all to play for as far as I'm concerned.

Yes Steve, next week could be interesting for convective fans after a let down from last night in terms of storms,  or lack of.

To shift away from some of the autumnal posts, I'm surprised the UKMO hasn't got a mention. It looks completely different from the GFS after 72h and at a glance, a bit warmer!

At T96 the UK is stuck underneath a Col with perhaps high pressure beginning to build to our North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

Anything could happen from here and the heat isn't too far away....

I think the reason why it is so different is because it doesn't develop that low on Monday as much, a plausible outcome I think.

My post is based on some of the actual output. 

While the UKMO is definitely better at that time point and is more settledthan the GFS the GFS has been consistent about the low pressure dominating the UK's weather. Perhaps autumnal is a bit harsh but I guess a milder version of autumn would be more appropriate for many northern parts? (For example the Met Office mention the risk of wintriness at Munro level over the weekend).

Saying it's not so sadly doesn't make it go away. For what it's worth I'm not convinced that the cooler more unsettled conditions will (a) last for a prolonged period of time or (b) be that noticeable for more southern parts, especially in periods of lighter wind and sunshine. 

Yup the GFS would be pretty poor for late June and to be fair it does tie in with the ECM somewhat from this morning. I think part of me thinks it will be watered down is because:

- We have a very slack atmospheric circulation pattern which will lead to large uncertainty over a small timescale. I think the GFS may be overestimating the extent of low pressure over our shores (although SST's to our immediate SW are about 3C above average so perhaps not?)

- I remember early last week the output kept suggesting a cool anticyclonic northerly which didn't materialise and then we had high pressure building over Scandi/ to our east again to give the South at least more warmth. It would surprise me if we reverted to cooler weather types now all of a sudden after a long period of warmth.

I may be wrong but small changes to the UKMO and a different picture could emergy once again.

Evening GEFS update appears to follow this morning's 00z suite. 

I think you are right Jonny. Your logic certainly is.

Fingers crossed as the GFS is depressing me  A gradual shift away from the cooler cyclonic conditions to something much warmer in the medium term would really not surprise me. Hopefully hints of this might be evident in the later stages of tonight's ECM.