Philip Avery on Weather for the Week Ahead so far forgot himself as to promise a strong NEly in a week or so, courtesy of P cell drifting up to Iceland. If it does come off, there's some proper cold air in the second week which could contribute

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

but GFS and ECM less convinced this morning - both want to shunt the cold air south over France while we only get a glancing blow.

Yep saw that also but he did say " much uncertainty"

Yes saw that forecast and unusual for them to make such a bold statement so late in the forecast period for the HP cell to migrate to the NW of the UK and drag in air from the NE.  Mind you this morning's GFS in deep FI does actually support this with 850's of -12c at one point- however this winter has been a devil for eye candy synoptics which never verify, so FI seems to be 4 days at the moment as wild changes from run to run.

Nice to see a proper 91 easterly next month though however if it doesn't happen by the time shown on the GFS run this morning, then as Darren has mentioned the sun will be too strong down here even with bitter uppers and a slow thaw would take place during the day. The other problem we have is the US is about to get another shot of very cold air down the eastern side, which often does not bode well for us as it revs up the jet and northern blocking has been very weak this winter and when it does occur it has often been in the wrong place.

I think the best we can hope for ( going on the winter so far) is a northerly shot with a NE tilt which might for a couple of days drag in some air from Scandinavia. 

Indeed - I know that those elsewhere will disagree, but it's the truth: since 1972 (the earliest time I can find daily data for), there's only been one year which saw an ice day at Manston after Feb 15th: 1986. And that, of course, was a very special year as February returned a subzero CET, the last such time that's happened.

This morning's EPS has notched up the chance of an easterly just a little bit:

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

I see some c**k teasing by the two big ones this morning. Well, they could wear stockings and suspenders and cover themselves with chocolate, I ain't fallin' for it!

Isn't that OK if its for charity? 😉

In the run up to easterlies, there's always some to and fros in the extended. I'm not endorcing it by the way!

Very interesting end to the GFS 00z op run this morning, but unfortunately it's way too far out to be taken at all seriously.

Let's hope that it becomes a recurring theme in coming runs.

aye, it has been on the cards though, with the charts almost getting to that outcome, it was only a case of time before it reached that kinda conclusion.

Whether it will hold firm on that idea, time will tell.  But there has been a consistent theme of Northern and central Europe into the Freezer for the start of Feb.

Fingers crossed.

Speak for yourself. The sun is beating down into my office and I'm sifting through the gardening catalogue that arrived yesterday. 

Completely agree, lovely here, and as a bonus Solar Panels really kicking out some power today

I think I'd prefer the gardening season to arrive when it is supposed to, i.e March. If we get spring now and then summer in springtime, it'll sure as heck be the kiss of death for the meteorogical summer. Just look at what happened in 2012 for starters.

If only? I wonder what the 06z run will bring? this means it will bring back zonal?

rather sneakily this little feature has developed somewhat over the past few runs.  Its a messy setup, but plenty of cold air wrapped up in it.

One to watch for unexpected snow over the next week.

This is when it starts around 6th when the low sinks southwards:

He  also said in that forecast Friday will be on the cold side , 9C . I don't know what sort of mid-January's he's used to! Must feel the cold.

Houston we have a problem on 5th Feb - where is the Greenland Block at +276:

SEE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 00Z CHART AND 06:

00Z

06Z

quite A FLIP AS PREDICTED-  How did I guess after such and eye candy perfect set up' type chart we will revert back to zonal on the 06z run in FI - it's all too predictable,. Instead of LP over central Europe and med we have HP and instead of a large block or two twin HP blocks over Greenland/Iceland and Scandinavia we have LP.

00z run

06z run

To be fair looking at the ens from the 00z, the cold setup was nothing more than an outside option, with many more options going on the milder side. It was just a case of the op and the control going down the colder route:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=235

You'll probably find "eye candy" somwhere amongst the 6z ens set, however this time the op has chosen the milder route.

We'll need to see how much support it gets I guess.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

Control is much better so far

Not to worry...end of the FI run brings sub -10 uppers from way out west.......Next!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=162&mode=1&carte=0

Control setting up for an easterly which should be cold looking at the source