How is your Sunday morning, Brian?

sorry - wasn't sure who or which users - i assume Steve Murr?. 

Can you please go back to talking about the weather. 

GEFS 06z has a big spread but looks to have trended colder.

Indeed Brian. Still quite a consistent signal for blocking somewhere nearby in the medium term with an associated risk of cold for us. Perhaps best to enjoy your warmth today Jason?

 Yes Looking at the ENS at 174h ,240h and 360h a huge spread.Also true to say that the Atlantic flow is not dominant in any of these periods

Ems 06z for Birmingham indicate a chilly outlook after the mild blip has passed through. 

Some very cold runs in there to.

How many weeks have deep FI been pushing deep cold only for it to be all gone by reasonable timeframe?

We are getting a little long in the tooth this winter for anything truely stunning to happen?

Might as well look forward to the frogs sounding out and daffs starting to open.....and the hunt for the first 21c of the year!

It’s at about this point - about 168hrs to the ‘tipping point’ of the SE diving low that triggers the easterly options (about 30% of the 06Z set) - that I would like to see a solid consensus start to develop. If (a big if) the easterly is game on we really must see much more solid GEFS trends in the countdown with better cross model support.

Without it it remains as usual a phantom easterly, and like the opera, the fat lady is ready to sing for another winter.

If there is no more snow IMBY this Winter it’s the best I’ve seen for a few years , I’m hoping for a cooling trend over the next few years 

You have a liking for cold rain and disappointing summers?

And no consistently warm runs

If we get into debating probability (which some people seem to do) would you prefer 4 very cold (fairly consistent over a number of days) runs over a dozen lines yo-yoing around the middle, without any consistency in their pattern

To me, although not 100% cold/Easterly that is much better odds than the number of cold ensembles suggests, as the alternative possibilities are even weaker as a nailed on outcome.

Decent GFS 12z so far.

certainly is 850’s might not be so important in this setup

It’s another nod to the easterly brigade in the semi-reliable.

What’s noteworthy though is the remarkable depth of cold due to smother E Canada and New England. A real freeze-up there for sure.

Edit: GEM also seems to have got onto the programme at last 

Quite cold in the UK and an absolute snorter in much of mainland Europe! Close to a good old fashioned mid Feb freeze.

looks like could be more record cold

I'm more pleased with the GFS's idea of the Atlantic being kept well at arm's length in the medium range output, quite a face-about on a couple of runs ago showing sub-920 mb lows. Of course, it's all subjective given the forecasting range but it does seem to nod its head in agreement with the Met Office's own 15 dayer.

Yes, it's good to see the European freezer taking shape; doesn't match the cold over the N American NE seaboard, of course; but with the two seeming to coincide for cold, (there having been such a long haul with mild air over Europe) I wonder what that will mean in the middle?

Control is decent on 12z GFS, on Feb 5th better than op.