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Even Steve Murr, the Pied Piper of the Easterly, himself, is quiet.
Which is just as well as I find the greater Steve Murr's ramping, the greater the models goes tits up.
Originally Posted by: KevBrads1
yet another pointless post award on TWO...
between you & the other muppet you must have a full trophy cabinet of muppet awards.
UKMO Contingency Planners Guidance: Feb-Apr 2018 http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html
ECM comes close but as ever too much energy in the northern arm which is the recurring feature of recent years
Originally Posted by: sizzle
Interesting Wasn't the original LRF for winter 2017/18 to be for February to be the mildest month?
Originally Posted by: Col
Yes, that's what I recall. Sums up my view of the usefulness of these forecasts, that does.
the ukmo 168h has an easterly , Looks like quite a strong block as well
UKMO 168 has some sort of easterly, not dissimilar to JMA.
More runs needed. To be frank I'm not too moved by any of the output, Feb5th- 6th remain the key dates but I still say we will have to wait for Thursday before killing off any easterly for sure.
Originally Posted by: Steve Murr
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
Exactly- all output for the period commencing next Monday is very much open to question at this moment in time, as far as I can see anyway.
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
You never know if we get a bit of luck and the northern arm has been overdone (February usually quietest Atlantic month) we could be having low minima and maxima threads next week!
As well as the longer term it's worth keeping an eye on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
Yes usual places atm exposed to the NW wind. Media outlets have also flagged Friday but it all depends on timing and angle of attack of the front.
The interest in the GFS ensembles seems to be sorely lacking from the operational output lately. The 18Z is a million miles from any kind of decent cold spell.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
The 00z and 06z runs were better in as much as they both built HP over the UK to a more meaningful extent than the subsequent two runs, and the 12z and 18z runs not so good in that they have lessened the extent to which HP influences things next week.
I honestly don't think we'll know for another day or two yet what is likely to happen next week with any amount of certainty. For me, FI starts after 144hrs ahead if not at that point.
Just looked at the OP ensembles - very few show any kind of easterly or cold and many show a return or continuation of zonality! Intense LP systems over Greenland and Iceland.
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
The general theme on the EC15 run tonight is for a diverging westerly stream for this part of the world.
Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea
yeah - tell me about it - very much so indeed!
All this model watching really isn't good for my health! Today's crumbs of comfort are offered by the UKMO and ECM in the 120-144 hr timeframe. For anything half decent to materialise we need to see a last minute correction southwards of the low tracking into Europe in the 72-96 hr period to set up a slightly stronger easterly flow thereafter! Sadly the Atlantic looks far too active to allow this to happen!http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018013000/ECM1-120.GIF?30-12http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2018013000/UW144-21.GIF?30-06
Agree there are still twists and turns on the road ahead. One thing is a wettening trend seems to be appearing as we head towards mid Feb. The GEFS appears to be pointing towards an increased chance of an Atlantic influence and I'll be interested to see whether the update from Exeter today (or has it already been issued ) makes a nod in that direction.
ECM continues its theme from last night, deepening PV removing even mid latitude HP, only low heights over the continent is saving us from some very wet and mild synoptics.
