If what I'm seeing of the 12z run is to be believed, that would give my East Kent location continuous snow between Tuesday through to Thursday via a Channel streamer.

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That's only the advance party though. The deep cold pool is still making its way into the Baltic by that stage, ready to hit around T144-168 (if the alignment plays ball).

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I don't have any adjectives left.

They have all just gone.

 

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latest 12z temps @850hpa - Quite a lot of snow to the south pushing up from channel:

Notice the warmer air never quite reaches the SE coast unlike in 06z chart for midday Friday thus prolonging the cold.

I expect more changes in the 18z but a good update for those who what cold and snow south of M4 esp for Devon.

 

06z chart

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12z ICON

An unprecedently powerful sudden stratospheric warming finally leads to unprecedented easterlies in the model output.

Makes sense really.

Edit: And unprecedented agreement for an unprecedented length of time between the models. There still hasn't been any sort of substantial downgrade.

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Very nice Gavin  Shows a number of streamers potentially setting up and the shortwave that has been consistently modelled to attack from the east on Tuesday. Happy days! 

Same here Q!

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Assuming snow cover, coupled with light winds in a favoured location, there could be a new entry in this list.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2012/10/16/top-ten-coldest-recorded-temperatures-in-the-uk/

Wow!

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I'd hope / imagine they'll be more widespread as well when we get to that time.

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Well David, as you know, a Moomin ramp is a rare thing.....I did say back in December I thought we'd get something, but I confess I didn't think it'd keep us waiting quite this long.

Bring it on! 

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Ill be honest. Ive not seen charts that good before.

End of next week is a proper snowmagedon scenario.

This currently has all the ingredients we want to see, and come to these boards to patiently discuss and miss time and time again.

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I think it is now fair to say that, with the notable exceptions of the build-up to the freezes of winter 2009/10 and late November & December 2010, there hasn't been a period of model watching quite like this in TWO history. What we are seeing indicated in the model runs at the moment for next week is the sort of synoptics that we were told not so long ago by some members that were supposedly confined to history! Hmmmm.

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Just flicking through the GEFS and there's definitely a new 'trend' at about 192Z, so Friday lunchtime, for the low from the South to be more to the SE of the UK, meaning much colder air involved. 

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[quote=David M Porter;977227]

 

Wow!

 

Can you push that channel streamer 40 miles further north

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It's down to the modern era, I'm tellin' ya.

 

I don’t think you’ve got it either..!

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Why, is it more sophisticated than an play on words?

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I'm as lost as you are now 

Anyway, GFS short ensembles looking trouble free

 

 

Well I suppose you could say still on track little lows could develop in that easterly flow the same as polar lows do!! Beasterlows

I might finally start to raise an eyebrow towards next weeks potential, I’ll still wait until the weekend for a more clearer picture of snow for IMBY. All in all not a bad days model watching thus far.

The great thing is that it's not of this transitional rubbish of rain to snow and showers becoming wintry or sleety snow falling on wet surfaces etc etc 

This is proper cold and because the air and ground would have had time to cool the ground will be dry so the snow will readily settle. 

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Come on! Allow a little excitement in your life  'Not a bad day so far'. It's not a bad day when you find a quid down the side of the sofa, or see that your favourite brand of beer is on offer at the shop.

This, this my friend is a very good day 

 

 

(please play nice ECM!) 

12z mean again going less cold during the 1st full week of March few more milder/less cold runs among the scatter.

Bulk of next week looks bitter