theweatheroutlook

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nsrobins
23 February 2018 06:08:29
There are s significant number of ENS that prolong the freeze AFTER the great blizzard (using the term with due care - but several models now do indeed bring a proper 79 style blizzard info England later next week) with more snow into the second week of March.

Truely exceptional times these and I’m not one to exaggerate as you know.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
23 February 2018 06:17:31

There are s significant number of ENS that prolong the freeze AFTER the great blizzard (using the term with due care - but several models now do indeed bring a proper 79 style blizzard info England later next week) with more snow into the second week of March.

Truely exceptional times these and I’m not one to exaggerate as you know.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


As I said a few days ago if you’ve sat up and taken notice something must be up, never known a period of model watching like it 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
23 February 2018 06:28:47
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_120_1.png 

The rest of the run will be out shortly.


For what it’s worth the GEFS ensemble mean (t850s) only rises back to -7°C for the first by the end of the run.


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?clim=1&x=&y=&ext=1&run=0&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0


Interesting times and lots of potential.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
23 February 2018 06:34:42


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_120_1.png 

The rest of the run will be out shortly.


For what it’s worth the GEFS ensemble mean (t850s) only rises back to -7°C for the first by the end of the run.


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?clim=1&x=&y=&ext=1&run=0&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0


Interesting times and lots of potential.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed. And it looks like Aberdeen and down the NE Coast is favoured to collect lake effect snow plus whatever the trough delivers early Tues. You could have impressive totals by Friday.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
White Meadows
23 February 2018 06:42:31
This is now turning into a possible major event for much of the country.
The focus and depth of the event now looks like Thursday into Friday AND next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_168_1.png 

Uppers don’t rise enough for a breakdown at all for the foreseeable. In fact they trend colder mid March.
The strat warming will have changed the understanding & meteorological landscape and this, whatever happens has already rewritten the history books.

Met office warnings this morning talk of power cuts, stranded cars and towns becoming cut off!!! 😮😮😮😮
ballamar
23 February 2018 06:42:53

There are s significant number of ENS that prolong the freeze AFTER the great blizzard (using the term with due care - but several models now do indeed bring a proper 79 style blizzard info England later next week) with more snow into the second week of March.

Truely exceptional times these and I’m not one to exaggerate as you know.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


stop exaggerating!!

White Meadows
23 February 2018 06:45:09
Heavy frontal snow from the east next Saturday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_192_1.png 
Shropshire
23 February 2018 06:46:15

Day 8 on the ECM and a stunning hemespheric view, they've thrown the switch. 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
23 February 2018 06:49:12


Day 8 on the ECM and a stunning hemespheric view, they've thrown the switch. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Yes, that is one remarkable chart! 


Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
23 February 2018 06:49:13
Infrastructure and every part of government will be tested
Retron
23 February 2018 06:52:22
I thought the ECM day 9 chart looked odd! There are heights coming in via the north pole, it seemed. Switch to the northern hemisphere view and blimey....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 

A warm surge over Alaska ends up crossing the pole and heading down past Greenland. Insane synoptics!

Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
23 February 2018 06:53:09

Infrastructure and every part of government will be tested

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


No comment 


 


i wouldnt normally give too much credence to op charts at this range but given the perstence of the pattern and what comes before...


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_216_1.png 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Karl Guille
23 February 2018 06:54:00

Too early to say but the models are certainly now toying with the possibility of extending the cold into next weekend and, potentially, beyond! Truly exceptional period of weather modelling. A late 50th birthday present for me that got stuck in the post!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018022300/ECM0-192.GIF?23-12

St. Sampson
Guernsey
ballamar
23 February 2018 06:59:09


 


No comment 


 


i wouldnt normally give too much credence to op charts at this range but given the perstence of the pattern and what comes before...


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_216_1.png 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


remember swim with the snow and dribble so you know which way is up 

Brian Gaze
23 February 2018 07:00:12


Too early to say but the models are certainly now toying with the possibility of extending the cold into next weekend and, potentially, beyond! Truly exceptional period of weather modelling. A late 50th birthday present for me that got stuck in the post!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018022300/ECM0-192.GIF?23-12


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


It was my birthday the other day and I dreamed that my wife said, "Surprise! You've always wanted to go to Iceland so I've booked us a min break next week".

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
23 February 2018 07:05:47
Is this the first time ever that the mean has been below -15C on the London ensembles? Anyone?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Nordic Snowman
23 February 2018 07:05:57

ECM 240:-


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=240&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24


A fantastic OP from ECM and the GEFS is looking equally as good too.


The key difference (potentially) about this upcoming cold spell is the longevity and severity. Normally, it's a 2-day event with a return to normality; not this time.


Atm, it seems that it is upgrade after upgrade.


Forget March 2013 as this period of weather could be far more severe and has the potential to last for quite some time given the GEFS/EPS/SSW/METO musings.


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Nordic Snowman
23 February 2018 07:07:04


 


It was my birthday the other day and I dreamed that my wife said, "Surprise! You've always wanted to go to Iceland so I've booked us a min break next week".


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
nsrobins
23 February 2018 07:09:49


ECM 240:-


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=240&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24


A fantastic OP from ECM and the GEFS is looking equally as good too.


The key difference (potentially) about this upcoming cold spell is the longevity and severity. Normally, it's a 2-day event with a return to normality; not this time.


Atm, it seems that it is upgrade after upgrade.


Forget March 2013 as this period of weather could be far more severe and has the potential to last for quite some time given the GEFS/EPS/SSW/METO musings.



Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Agreed. From an IMBY perspective, I’m looking for a slight onshore drift Weds to generate the very rare Solent Streamer!

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Retron
23 February 2018 07:11:57

Is this the first time ever that the mean has been below -15C on the London ensembles? Anyone?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


First time since mid 1997, anyway.... I didn't know about ensembles before then.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
NickR
23 February 2018 07:15:46
Jesus. 00z literally has 75cm accumulated snow over my house eithout taking convection into account. Frankly, my home owner side would rather we didn't get QUITE that much!
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gandalf The White
23 February 2018 07:18:14


ECM 240:-


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=240&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24


A fantastic OP from ECM and the GEFS is looking equally as good too.


The key difference (potentially) about this upcoming cold spell is the longevity and severity. Normally, it's a 2-day event with a return to normality; not this time.


Atm, it seems that it is upgrade after upgrade.


Forget March 2013 as this period of weather could be far more severe and has the potential to last for quite some time given the GEFS/EPS/SSW/METO musings.



Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Indeed Mike.  For a few days now there have been hints of retrogression and a reload from the north.  There are still significant differences for later next week with GFS modelling more of a push of LP from the south west, with the greater risk of something less cold.  The signal in GEFS is more in line with an extended spell of exceptional cold.


Some of the current charts and the latest Met Office forecast and early warnings are worthy of being archived as classics.


I’m torn between anticipation and anxiety now: there will be headline-making weather stories through much of next week.  I’m a little worried about the penetrating severe frosts and burst pipes.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
23 February 2018 07:19:15

Jesus. 00z literally has 75cm accumulated snow over my house eithout taking convection into account. Frankly, my home owner side would rather we didn't get QUITE that much!

Originally Posted by: NickR 


I'm quite worried about the building collapse next week due to the shoddy "appendages" that have been added to many houses in recent years. That and central heating problems due to external condensate pipes could be real issues, although the strengthening sun may mitigate.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
23 February 2018 07:20:06

Cold arrival is brought forward to t+66 (when -10c hits EA).

Run of the morning goes to DWD/ICON with its sub -20c air over Norfolk at t+120!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Looks like only about -13C to me. Where are you seeing that?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
mrspatch
23 February 2018 07:21:46


 


It was my birthday the other day and I dreamed that my wife said, "Surprise! You've always wanted to go to Iceland so I've booked us a min break next week".


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Haha.. Have informed my hubby that is where I want to go for my 50th.  


I cant wait till next week here though 😁😁😁

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