http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/geos/runs/2018022300/geosnh-1-129.png?23-15 

Bitterly cold NASA run

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During the great cold spell of 2010, what was the set up back then, obviously i know this cold spell is coming from the east, but back then i cannot remember at all, was it a similar set up as we are seeing for next week models wise?

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I believe 2010 had more northerly and north easterly winds.  A good example of continental easterly winds is Feb 1991.  Easterly winds used to be referred to as a lazy wind, because the wind cuts through you rather than going around you 

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I am considering doing just that, mainly so as not to leave my wife on her own. I shall make a final decision tomorrow evening on that score, depending on the likely snow forecasts by that stage.

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That's just made me go all dewy eyed.

Back to the matter in mind and to answer a poster's question, I do think the upcoming cold snap may end up being similar to the 11th Feb '10 one, just a little longer lasting. The parameters are there, it's just a question of the wind orientation being in the right alignment to deliver Kent clippers after Kent clippers my way.  

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Good grief, that's the coldest yet in terms of -16 coverage methinks.

I think its not extensive due to 2 reasons:

January I believe was above average temperature wise over mainland Europe. Most of the snowfall was over the alps at approx 1200m plus

February so far has probably been below average temperature wise but also quite dry

I doubt snowcover across the mainland will increase much in the next few days as it looks quite dry over there

 

 

 

 

 

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 The troughs and the occlusion you can see in the Fax bough 30cm of snow as it moved north in my neck of the woods on top of the 10cm or so already there.

 

Also see MetO's summary at:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/dec2010

 

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When did we get that spell when temperatures got down into he minus 20s in England - that's what this reminds me of.

 

WRF 06z with some nice examples (note only France-focused version goes beyond +72 hours) of the sort of 'streamer' shower behaviour I was talking about. They wiggle about, waxing and waning, as the wind varies during the period.

Occasionally there is a hint of a few showers developing inland in response to surface heating. It may just about be possible to get sufficient lift to nudge up a less dry layer of air some way above the surface (moist air from the N Sea which then gets eroded away near the dry land but holds on better aloft) such that some at least weak showers manage to initiate.

Possibly there could be localised heavier ones due to the very steep lapse rates but dry air will tend to make that difficult... I think. This is not an exact science as some crucial boundary layer (loosely speaking, the layer of air that reaches from the surface to the top of all but the tallest clouds) details are still quite uncertain.

 

...and you're right about the Met Office warnings JOHN NI, I should have put low risk which actually fits better with the point I was making - had an off moment there! 

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Thought I'd have a bit of fun and look at the 850's for my neck of the woods off the 6z GFS (and 00z ECM run).

Sunday starts with 850's at -1.5c with a steady easterly breeze, during the day the 850's drop away, by lunchtime they're at -7, wind has a very slight Northerly component, good for steering showers through Kent. By 6pm 850's are between -9 and -10, with -10.5c over East Kent, the breeze is a brisk ENE. By midnight 850's are at -12 to -13c, with -14 just of the coast.

Monday starts with the 850's still dropping, with -13.5 to -14c, breeze still a brisk ENE. The 850's stay around -13 to -14 for the rest of the day and in to and through Tuesday. Wednesday has the 850's dropping to -15c by lunch, with -15.5 just fringing the coast, with the breeze dropping slightly and now back to more of a straight easterly. By 9pm Wednesday the 850's reach -16 towards the coast.

The start of Thursday sees the -16c line covering the whole of Kent, with -16.5 fringing in at the coast. During the day warmer 850's move up with them sitting between -8 and -12 or so. 

During Friday the 850's continue to lift to circa -4.5 at their highest, before falling back to between -6.5 and -8.5 over the course of Saturday. By Sunday warmer 850's are moving up and we eventually go positive, at which point the run is something of a an outlier within the ens set, with a few similar warm runs but a solid cluster keeping things around -8.

For the ECM I have a bit more fun, with the following at the start of each day: -13c Monday, -13c Tuesday, -13c Wednesday, -16c Thursday, -13c Friday, -11c Saturday, -7c Sunday, -9c Monday.

Seriously cold 850's Now all I need is some decent snow showers - I reckon they'll be more likely to hit my part of Kent late Sunday through to Tuesday, unless more organised stuff makes its way through Wednesday onwards.

 

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The NASA model's been something of a trendsetter on this one. A week ago people were posting the occasional bonkers NASA chart as a bit of light relief compared to the merely jaw-dropping mainstream ones. So I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility it's still leading the way.

 

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Ok, thanks for the info. 

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I don't trust my poor memory enough to tell you, I'm sure someone else will be along shortly who knows 

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/geos/runs/2018022300/geosfr-1-162.png?23-16 

Might we scrape a -20 850 in Kent on this one !

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-10C line makes landfall at 54 hours on the latest GFS. The train is coming. (BTW that wind already feels bitter outside, have all these mild winters turned me into a softie?!)

That really is a heck of a cold pool over Europe. -25C 850s over quite an area. I just checked the forecast for Tallinn which will take a direct hit: max of -16C on Tuesday!

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By Sunday I’ll know whether to write the first half of the week off for snow IMBY, at the moment I’ll say there’s a 10% chance of this side of the Pennines catching a snow shower or two. The second half of the week is a tad more complicated and the reliance of the low to our SW pushing further North will be crucial for those of us not in a good position for seeing snow next week. 😏

A bit quiet in here considering!

12z rolling out, GFS and UKMO both look beautiful so far, deep cold on it's way 

ICON a little 'out there' so not trusting it too much but it certainly looks cold and snowy - just different 

GFS has its kinky boots on today and another trough moving across Early Weds needs watching as well as the sw on Tues am. All engulfed in bitterly cold air so snow where they hit.

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Personally, this is exactly the sort of the thing I'm looking for IMBY! This is the pattern that gave us a Red Warning in 2009 / 2010. That Thames Streamer always looks so innocuous on a predicted snowfall chart, but I know from experience that its local nature tells you nothing about it's potency. It only really forms at all on an ENE'rly alignment as it needs the wind direction to combine with the coastline shape and I know from living in this area on and off for 40 years that if it forms at all, we always benefit!

The strange thing is, that because it's so 'local' it won't get a serious more general warning ahead of time as the warning resolution isn't there - at 15 miles either side you can find yourself with only a dusting of snow whilst the hilltops in east Surrey, modest as they are, are calking up 30cm of snow.

Nice that those show not only the Thames Streamer, but also the Kent Clipper and the Hook of Holland Hanger-on too! :)

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It's the wrong wind direction for a Pembrokeshire Dangler.

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The thing is Matty, you seem to get quite lucky Fall in a cesspit and come up smelling like roses type of guy (weather)

I think the 1963 big freeze saw the west country (namely Devon and Cornwall) do exceptionally well for snow; the E gets the snow and the W gets attempted but failed breakdowns whereas CS areas, namely Pompey, escape from all sides 

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https://www.gavsweathervids.com/ 

Weather looking quite severe next week

I think you are underplaying the snow risks for the west.

For Manchester I'd suggest a 70-80% risk of us catching at least a few snow flurries, maybe 40% risk of lying snow of more than an inch. The very small chance of a significant fall of 5 inches or more.

This pressure profile suggests a high likelihood of snow reaching this far west by Tuesday night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_111_1.png

 

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Interesting 850 temp profile.

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