A progressive run in terms of milder uppers this one.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_162_2.png

Blizzard?

From bitterly cold to bitterly disappointing in the space of 12 hours. 

It would be nice to get a GFS Op run that doesn't risk rain in the south, but I guess we have to walk the tightrope to get the best snow!

Yes and it brings a very messy/snowy climax for the southern half during Friday - turning back to rain in the SE.

I'd rather it be a little further south than that just to keep the cold locked in longer. Hopefully just GFS' progressive tendencies coming to the fore again. Surely it can't be that easy for the low to displace the cold?

All model OPs as good as it gets upto 168 but recurring theme GFS and by the looks ukmo want to introduce warmer air from the south after day 7. GEM  and ECM want carry on the deep cold .

so many options out there, the cold spell would go with a bang if it panned out that way, a few will be glad to see the back of it by then !!

Only temporarily, the uppers are only above zero for a very brief period. 

UKMO is a bit concerning with the high running away to the west. 

Looks like rain spreading up the eastern side of the UK by T+ 174.

Looks like GEM stays snowy all the way to day 10 though the cold pool has pretty much gone by then.

my own suspicion is that we will certainly see that watered down, the old 'blended solution' chestnut.  We know GFS tends to go a bit OTT with LP development.  Interesting to see what the UKMO and ECM make of this feature tonight.  Almost certainly it will be less developed and therefore further south than on this one GFS OP run.  

It would from my own pov be good to get a nice blizzard and have the cold hang on for a day or two so we can enjoy the result.  Then bring on spring please.

Er, very cold air wrapping into a LP sat over the UK like that is not how cold spells end, merely move onto a new, snow-dominated phase... not that I find so much northward movement away from the southerly jet very believable! Not ruling it out though as there's an upper low crossing the UK within the E flow and if that stays far enough N then yes, the low could be drawn toward it.

Hard luck for the SE corner on that run but hey, it's just one outcome of countless many!

Well in Feb 2005 we got numerous showers, also in Feb 91 and Dec 96 we received decent coverings. 

Maybe south of the region is more favoured than your patch? 

I think there's some reverse psychology going on with your posts. 

Incredible output yet again to be frank.

MetO is amazing. 

T+120 https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007 

T+144 https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1007

Brutally cold with a snow risk for many.

Unless there's been a more recent instance that I've forgotten, the last time there was a -20 minimum recorded somewhere in England was in January, 1982.

Hope it does end up like ICON as its stunningly snowy end. It's very difficult to know what it would look like at 7 and 8 though.

We mustn't lose sight on just how good the output is at the moment its unbelievably stunning from all models upto day 7.

Yes you are pretty much in the sweet spot for snow there in the NE somewhere like Consett could get 100cm I reckon. 

Agreed. People may initially think GFS is disappointing at first glance - but it could create severe disruption for significant sections of the country. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_174_25.png 

Deep gone by next weekend on GFS 12z away from Scotland

Indeed... ok, not so great for EA and SE but mid-western parts of England doesn’t get above 1c the whole time as the low mixes the air... Could be exceptionally snowy.