High res NMM showing the cold air (850's) spreading west across Europe looking like the -14s will be hanging around for a wee while

 I'm hoping to see a variety of set-ups, flow directions and features over the next 7-10 days, in order to give as much of the UK a dumping of snow as possible. If it sets up as a pure easterly throughout and the same places get all the snow, then it'll be pretty crappy.

But there is a great deal of evidence that the climate of NW Europe is correlated with and fundamental to/with global synoptics. This it seems, is related to the strength and position of the Azores High and its influence on the Rossby Waves that circle the earth. And in this respect, much comment has been made on this thread, that 'something, this year is different'. The difference I see is that the Azores High has ridged to the WNW rather than the ENE direction of the greater part of the last 30 years or so. This has changed the Jet stream pattern such that in our parts, it is directed WNW to ESE, rather than SW to NE. This influences the pattern downstream, but less influentially.

Importantly, over Europe, the SE diving jet stimulates the formation of low pressure over south Europe and importantly gives room for High Pressure to form to the NE and when this happens the High influences the jet pattern in its own way.

These presently different synoptics, can, at the right time affect European snow cover in Spring (and Autumn) to an extent which will certainly affect the extent and duration of European snow cover and to a reasonable extent, western Asia. The Albedo will increase in these areas and the global connection i'll leave to those scientists making such claims.

It's getting so scary that I intend to start playing these loops in reverse.

This has caught us out in the past (ok so no massive amounts) but i remember I think it was 2009 or 2005 when a very similar setup hit.  Cold air was meant to bring snow showers to the east on the sunday afternoon, and more widespread by the monday or tuesday.  The forecast was nailed on.

Woke on sunday in Manchester to moderate snow falling.  The showers on the breeze and the upper air temps just penetrated the whole country from the get go,.

Well , we're now into the time frame that normally sees the whole thing fall flat on its face? I have concerns about the warmth to our south and the chances of WAA from there to spoil our fun ( esp. next weekend which was looking good even for S.C.?).

It would not take much of a shift to see a good part of the UK no longer under deep cold uppers and back into uppers less likely to bring us the goods?

I agree about the snow amounts, during the 62-63 winter snow amounts in the Macclesfield area (close to the Pennines) were light and patchy.

Yes, a great set of GEFS there.

A bit messy to look at closely but IMO it seems (understandably given recent runs) that 5th March is when we see the start of two possible clusters beginning to show. Given the NWP tends to side with progression, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the colder cluster gain support in the days ahead. I really do think that March will be a well below average month through to the end. Inevitably there will be less cold incursions but again, combined with the METO forecasts as well as the SSW and NAO, I think the chances are in favour for the cold to continue. Another factor will be that once the cold/snow is established, it will invariably prove somewhat difficult to nudge away. This breeds the foundation for a potentially record-breaking snowy March. I wouldn't bet against it!

Time to buy shares in a plumbing business....

Matty H is already booking a private jet to Florida for the family summer holiday

Just looked at the table for London showing the height of 0c across the GEFS 06z....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=fr&mode=14&sort=0

I don't think I've ever seen every perturbation showing 0c at the surface for such a prolonged period.  Pretty much all the way from Sunday night to Friday.

At the risk of being lynched, I hope you're right! 

On the contrary this cold air once in place will take some shifting hence the met suggesting staying v cold well into march.

Isn't that a little alarmist Brian? It is not as though this country has never experienced winter weather before. It is what it is - a cold snap and we will come out the other side and wonder what all the fuss was about.

In the meantime, let's just enjoy the synoptics and whatever they produce.

At times like this, with the most extraordinary charts on show, I think it's nice to remember those that have left us.

I'd like to think dear old Dougie (God bless him) has done us all a favour up there and pressed the right button to deliver this for us.

The charts are just astonishing across the board, and having been on this forum since around 2006, my thoughts are genuinely with all those no longer with us that would be salivating along with us at what is unfolding.

True, but a good number (ie those under 30) would never have experienced what it looks like we’re about to!

Yes I was being a tad  However I think we're heading for a memorable cold spell or at the very least an extremely interesting one. Obviously I don't know the details of your contract situation but if it was me I would probably do a bunk next week and stay in the UK just to watch it unfold.

Times like this I wish I was back on the tools

again re snow cover - as per last night and as per Stormchaser really. Some people see dark purple uppers and automatically assume it means snow. It really doesn’t. Favoured areas from an easterly will get plenty. Over here in the west we will need troughs that hold together, or fronts pushing up into the cold air