nope, my flight is from Birmingham to Aberdeen!! Preceded by a drive from Gloucester. I'm hoping that being early morning may help!

id have mixed feelings about going to Goa with such a spell on offer!

Ah, thanks. I hadn't realised that.

Fair enough but the temps go against all the output available to us at the moment. And they seem to be massively underestimating the amounts of snow. But we should probably hold off judging them for this event until its over.

Good luck with your flight!  And your snow!  

With that upper cold pool that all the models seem to show passing over England on Wednesday, combined with the suggestion of embedded troughs in the flow, I have the feeling that that could prove to be a very snowy day.

At least there's the duty free 

Run out of words to describe the output. Never in 17 years of model watching have I been so thrilled. No matter what happens from here.

However, is there concern with UKMO and gfs that the low later next week brings mild air underneath with torrential rain? (As currently modelled)

Back to model output... anyone noticed the embedded feature trundling across the south Midlands at the end of the WRF run?

Pleased to join the forum finally, having lurked for years. Saw some discussion about thickness levels prior to Brian's earlier Tweet and found this for anyone still hunting. If we do dip below 500dam, it would be only the fourth occasion this has happened in the last century apparently (Wiley - onlinelibrary).

Welcome! 

And what a great first post!

Tbh i would agree with the forecasts being poor. On the day they seem okish... but most of the time their models or national forecasts dont match their mobile local day to day forecasts.  Needs alot of fine tuning.

ICON 18z the first to roll out and it's looking much better than the 12z - and much closer to the recent ECM/UKMO outputs 

I mentioned disruptive snowfall in conversation last night and received mixed reactions. A couple wanted to head straight to the shops for milk and bread but some were very sceptical based on the BBC forecast. Ended up with a bet that in a weeks time (Thursday evening next week) there would be more than 5 cms snow here. If he loses he uses his Winter tyres to deliver essentials to us for next weekend. I.e. Wine and chocolates. If I lose I have to provide various foods for his barbecue. I think I am on a winner but it wouldn't be the first time he has barbequed under the garage roof while snow came down.😏

but I just looked at the ICON12z and it looks excellent. Brutally cold in fact?

yes an upgrade from this mornings set. Seems the Greenland block is looking less likely to retreat west and the lows spinning up making less progress and disrupting. Could change again tomorrow of course 

Much better indeed.  Looks like -10 850s actually arrive very late on Sunday.

18z is slightly more brutal  Not saying the ICON 12z was bad, far from it. It was probably one of the weaker 12z outputs (but still great). The 18z is better nationwide, IMO.

Talking of the 18z, and on the GFS, -10 uppers arrive at Cromer, NorfolK at around 4-5pm Sunday afternoon, it begins.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=1