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David M Porter
06 January 2016 21:40:21

Tonight's update from the BBC.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35248338


 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2016 21:43:33


Tonight's update from the BBC.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35248338


 


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


What I like about John Hammond is that he seems delighted about the forth coming cold weather not like some forecasters


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
festivalking
06 January 2016 21:58:52
John Hammonds camping it up. He loves it!
Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.
westv
06 January 2016 22:22:41

 



Mr Bett on N24


" some significant changes on the way , that's all I'm going to say "  and then smiles


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


A Bartty  high?


At least it will be mild!
Chichesterweatherfan2
06 January 2016 22:23:01
Indeed...he is a very good communicator whatever the weather be it mild or cold....doesn't dumb down but presents technical information in a way that is interesting and understandable to a lay person like myself....but as you say, he clearly loves cold weather too!
Jonesy
07 January 2016 01:07:30


 


 


A Bartty  high?


Originally Posted by: westv 


from Mr Bett? Surely a Betty High :D


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Rob K
07 January 2016 07:28:58
Ooh, Betty... I've had a bit of trouble :)

Meanwhile the Express has splashed on a "big freeze" this morning. Expect mild SW winds to start dominating the output very shortly πŸ™‚
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
07 January 2016 09:54:56

I just had a meeting with someone from one of the UK's largest blue chip companies about forecast data. He told me an agency had offered them 20 day forecasts for the UK stepped at 1 hour intervals. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Russwirral
07 January 2016 10:01:11


I just had a meeting with someone from one of the UK's largest blue chip companies about forecast data. He told me an agency had offered them 20 day forecasts for the UK stepped at 1 hour intervals. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


you should have offered to do 21 days.  


llamedos
07 January 2016 11:34:59


I just had a meeting with someone from one of the UK's largest blue chip companies about forecast data. He told me an agency had offered them 20 day forecasts for the UK stepped at 1 hour intervals. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

..........and he believed them? - hilarious


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
tallyho_83
07 January 2016 11:42:09
Weather online update:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20160107 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


festivalking
07 January 2016 11:58:35

Weather online update:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20160107

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Seems a lot more interesting than last nights MO online update. No doubt the MO are bang on the money.............


Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.
Rob K
07 January 2016 12:53:01
Updated online (although they haven't changed the update time from last night!)

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Jan 2016 to Thursday 21 Jan 2016:
Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. From Wednesday a colder spell is expected to develop with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. As we go through the period unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds will probably become re-established across much of the UK, although the colder conditions may be hard to shift.

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Jan 2016 to Friday 5 Feb 2016:
The strongest signal for the period is generally unsettled conditions with winds mainly coming from the west. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected, interspersed by some dry and brighter interludes. The rain being heaviest and most persistent in the north and west where rainfall totals are likely to be above average. The south and east should be more sheltered, getting the best of the drier and brighter interludes, so rainfall totals here may by slightly below average. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little above average for most areas, but further cold spells are possible.

Updated at: 0124 on Thu 7 Jan 2016
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome
BaryBazz
07 January 2016 13:56:32

Updated online (although they haven't changed the update time from last night!)

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Jan 2016 to Thursday 21 Jan 2016:
Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. From Wednesday a colder spell is expected to develop with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. As we go through the period unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds will probably become re-established across much of the UK, although the colder conditions may be hard to shift.

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Jan 2016 to Friday 5 Feb 2016:
The strongest signal for the period is generally unsettled conditions with winds mainly coming from the west. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected, interspersed by some dry and brighter interludes. The rain being heaviest and most persistent in the north and west where rainfall totals are likely to be above average. The south and east should be more sheltered, getting the best of the drier and brighter interludes, so rainfall totals here may by slightly below average. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little above average for most areas, but further cold spells are possible.

Updated at: 0124 on Thu 7 Jan 2016

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


This is an absolute joke of a forecast looking at the charts and what the majority of forecasters are saying. They are paid by the taxpayers and if this is all they can come up with in the light of the evidence available its an absolute disgrace. Talk about covering all bases at the same time. The comment 'mainly westerly winds' I will bank and send to the MD in due course. They must still be using seaweed for the basis of their forecasts !!!


Discuss ??


 


Bazzer


 

IanT
  • IanT
  • Advanced Member
07 January 2016 14:27:21

 


This is an absolute joke of a forecast looking at the charts and what the majority of forecasters are saying. They are paid by the taxpayers and if this is all they can come up with in the light of the evidence available its an absolute disgrace. Talk about covering all bases at the same time. The comment 'mainly westerly winds' I will bank and send to the MD in due course. They must still be using seaweed for the basis of their forecasts !!!


Discuss ??


 


Bazzer 


Originally Posted by: BaryBazz 


 


Not the forecast you wanted then?


The "action" is still all in periods starting +1XX. Until it's closer they'll be careful not to over-commit. This has always been their way for good reason. Long range forecasts of extreme/anomalous weather are highly prone to being undermined by reality. If this does play out as many here hope it will (including myself!) a longitudinal linguistic study of the MetO's carefully calibrated language progression will be interesting. They are experienced and clever with words as well as with analysis. None of which is to say that they are always right!


Woking, Surrey. 40m asl.
BaryBazz
07 January 2016 14:43:38


 


 


Not the forecast you wanted then?


The "action" is still all in periods starting +1XX. Until it's closer they'll be careful not to over-commit. This has always been their way for good reason. Long range forecasts of extreme/anomalous weather are highly prone to being undermined by reality. If this does play out as many here hope it will (including myself!) a longitudinal linguistic study of the MetO's carefully calibrated language progression will be interesting. They are experienced and clever with words as well as with analysis. None of which is to say that they are always right!


Originally Posted by: IanT 


 


I agree but no comment but would be far better than something which bears little resemblance to reality and includes every possible out.


 


Bazzer

TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
07 January 2016 14:48:36


 


 


Not the forecast you wanted then?


The "action" is still all in periods starting +1XX. Until it's closer they'll be careful not to over-commit. This has always been their way for good reason. Long range forecasts of extreme/anomalous weather are highly prone to being undermined by reality. If this does play out as many here hope it will (including myself!) a longitudinal linguistic study of the MetO's carefully calibrated language progression will be interesting. They are experienced and clever with words as well as with analysis. None of which is to say that they are always right!


Originally Posted by: IanT 


 


I agree colder weather next week is now very likely with snow for some but the length of the cold spell is very uncertain and it in unlikely to be severe. The ensembles weakly favour a prolonged cold spell but not very cold a return to a westerly is very possible in the medium term

Rob K
07 January 2016 14:51:52


 


 


This is an absolute joke of a forecast looking at the charts and what the majority of forecasters are saying. They are paid by the taxpayers and if this is all they can come up with in the light of the evidence available its an absolute disgrace. Talk about covering all bases at the same time. The comment 'mainly westerly winds' I will bank and send to the MD in due course. They must still be using seaweed for the basis of their forecasts !!!


Discuss ??


 


Bazzer


 


Originally Posted by: BaryBazz 


Well, looking at the 06Z GFS ensembles for 330 hours (ie 00Z on Jan 21, the last day of the first forecast period), by my reckoning 11 out of the 21 members have winds from a westerly quarter for the majority of the UK i.e. slightly over half.


So the Met Office may not be too far off.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome
IanT
  • IanT
  • Advanced Member
07 January 2016 14:59:15


I agree but no comment but would be far better than something which bears little resemblance to reality and includes every possible out.


Bazzer


Originally Posted by: BaryBazz 


 


Here you go: job opportunity


Woking, Surrey. 40m asl.
BaryBazz
07 January 2016 15:04:24


 


 


Here you go: job opportunity


Originally Posted by: IanT 


 


Brilliant very funny , made me go cold !!!


 


Bazzer

Whiteout
07 January 2016 16:08:26

For me, the most telling difference from yesterday is that the word 'brief' has disappeared.


Due to our wonderful media they are going to be very, very careful with what they say and I think it is an upgrade from yesterday.


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Chichesterweatherfan2
07 January 2016 20:42:10
In my opinion theMet Office have been spot on thus far in terms of not ramping up the possibilities of a severe spell of wintry weather until much nearer the time frame....mind you I don't suppose they can win whatever they do and will be criticised from different quarters for being unduly cautious, or being plain wrong...never mind the huge complexities of forecasting 10- 15 days ahead with any degree of certainty....Some who had written off the whole of January as a non starter for cold weather seem to be complaining that the Met haven't issued advance snow alertsπŸ˜›
Gooner
07 January 2016 21:58:22

N24 H Willets


A hint of cold weather


A blast Artic air


No special forecast.....................seems there is SO much uncertainty .


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
07 January 2016 22:02:22


N24 H Willets


A hint of cold weather


A blast Artic air


No special forecast.....................seems there is SO much uncertainty .


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes, I found that forecast very surprising.  There's nothing much in the output to indicate a return of westerlies by the end of next week.


But there again the obvious immediate focus has to be on the large rainfall totals in prospect over the next 3-4 days.


Edit: did anyone notice that she referred to high pressure "to the north and east" and pointed to Scandinavia?  What's that all about?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Arcus
07 January 2016 22:08:46
To be fair, she said "there is just a hint of westerly winds returning by the end of the week".
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

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