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Quantum
08 May 2015 23:52:20

This is my theory about why Labour did so badly.


1) The shift right of the Lib dems since 2005. The rightward movement of the dems caused a situation where it pushed them further towards the tories than Labour. This was sealed with nick clegg as deputy pm, many who consider him the 'wanna be' tory. 


2) The distrust and dislike of the SNP. In addition to 1) lib dem voters who might otherwise vote labour decided to vote tory because they value unionism more than they value labour.


3) The almost complete mitagation of UKIP damage to the tories. In the end instead of seeing the shy kipper we saw the 'maunder effect', risking a snp labour coalition proved too risky for even very pro UKIP. Many tories would have switched back at the last minute but the mitagation did not occur with Labour. While the damage done to the tories from UKIP was tiny, the damage done to labour was big, and UKIP excelled in labour seats. This was probably because Labour felt in a winning position anyway and that it was 'safe' to vote UKIP.


4) The opinion pollsters. Projections of an SNP-Labour deal being the most likely, in fact the only option only adds to the three points above. If this was less of a concern then more of the vote would go to UKIP and Lib dems.


5) Major Labour PR disaster. The effect of the gender segregation senior labour conference cannot be understated. A large number of labour supporters were so disgusted by this turn of events that they went directly to the Green party. Basically Labour was caught in a Pinsor movement: From the right by UKIP, from the left by the Greens.


6) And of course this list would be incomplete without the SNP getting a point all to itself. Catastrophe north of the border, wiped out 40 seats just like that. 


 


I want to be clear though, I do not believe the Tories won out of their own merit. The tories won because Labour was hammered by everyone: Destroyed in Scotland by the SNP and held to ransom, the Greens draining their far left supporters, and UKIP their right ones. And a shoddy attempt to pick up the free lib dem votes. The tories should not get complacent.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
09 May 2015 00:09:57


 


Post of the election - anywhere.


The Tories won so it must be undemocratic.


Beast's irrational core stripped naked and exposed for all to see.


 


Originally Posted by: Super Cell 


You obviously dont understand sarcasm. Your irrational reactions to anything I post is exposed for all to see.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
09 May 2015 00:15:06


 


 


I want to be clear though, I do not believe the Tories won out of their own merit.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I would agree with you here. Swing voters didnt like either of them, but trusted the Tories more to handle the economy.


It was a huge mistake to make Ed Balls Shadow Chancellor, but the original choice, Alan Johnson resigned due to his wife's affair.


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
SEMerc
09 May 2015 01:21:27


This is my theory about why Labour did so badly.


1) The shift right of the Lib dems since 2005. The rightward movement of the dems caused a situation where it pushed them further towards the tories than Labour. This was sealed with nick clegg as deputy pm, many who consider him the 'wanna be' tory. 


2) The distrust and dislike of the SNP. In addition to 1) lib dem voters who might otherwise vote labour decided to vote tory because they value unionism more than they value labour.


3) The almost complete mitagation of UKIP damage to the tories. In the end instead of seeing the shy kipper we saw the 'maunder effect', risking a snp labour coalition proved too risky for even very pro UKIP. Many tories would have switched back at the last minute but the mitagation did not occur with Labour. While the damage done to the tories from UKIP was tiny, the damage done to labour was big, and UKIP excelled in labour seats. This was probably because Labour felt in a winning position anyway and that it was 'safe' to vote UKIP.


4) The opinion pollsters. Projections of an SNP-Labour deal being the most likely, in fact the only option only adds to the three points above. If this was less of a concern then more of the vote would go to UKIP and Lib dems.


5) Major Labour PR disaster. The effect of the gender segregation senior labour conference cannot be understated. A large number of labour supporters were so disgusted by this turn of events that they went directly to the Green party. Basically Labour was caught in a Pinsor movement: From the right by UKIP, from the left by the Greens.


6) And of course this list would be incomplete without the SNP getting a point all to itself. Catastrophe north of the border, wiped out 40 seats just like that. 


 


I want to be clear though, I do not believe the Tories won out of their own merit. The tories won because Labour was hammered by everyone: Destroyed in Scotland by the SNP and held to ransom, the Greens draining their far left supporters, and UKIP their right ones. And a shoddy attempt to pick up the free lib dem votes. The tories should not get complacent.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


No they shouldn't.


Ulric was probably correct when he said his preferred least bad solution was a repeat of the Con-Lib coalition.


With Dave having a working majority all the spivs, chancers, consultants and other crooks commonly associated with the Tory party are going to see this as open season now.


At least Clegg et al had some measure of control of these and other would be antics in the last administration.

Brian Gaze
09 May 2015 07:40:21

Could UKIP soon lose 100% of their sitting MPs? 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
David M Porter
09 May 2015 08:35:55


Just spotted this result overnight - Liverpool Walton. Labour polled over 81% of the vote and the Conservatives lost their deposit. That must be one of the most one-sided constituency results ever?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000794


 


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Isn't that Steve Rotherham's constituency? I would have been very, very surprised if he hadn't been re-elected there, especially in view of the part he has played in the Hillsborough justice campaign.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Maunder Minimum
09 May 2015 09:55:44


 


No they shouldn't.


Ulric was probably correct when he said his preferred least bad solution was a repeat of the Con-Lib coalition.


With Dave having a working majority all the spivs, chancers, consultants and other crooks commonly associated with the Tory party are going to see this as open season now.


At least Clegg et al had some measure of control of these and other would be antics in the last administration.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


That much is true.


However, I am so happy this morning


Having an overall majority is wonderful, since we can now implement the policies the LibDems blocked. I know many on here will disagree with me, but for me the following are manna from Heaven:



  1. Repeal the Human Rights Act

  2. Go to Brussels with a mandate to tell the Eurocrats to get stuffed.

  3. EU Referendum where the whole issue can be put to bed for a generation. What do I want out of this - for the UK to stay in a properly reformed relationship with the EU. We need the EU to recognise that there is an inner core (the Eurozone) and an outer zone of detached nations. The outer zone to have all the benefits of free trade, but without "ever closer union", without all the non-trade related Directives and without any concept of a United States of Europe. If Cameron can negotiate the right deal, I shall vote to remain in, otherwise it is out.

  4. Properly sort out the benefits system. Basically, young people should be in work, training or education - no benefits for being idle in other words. Catch people in their 20s and prevent them from sinking into the trap of a life on benefits.

  5. Rebalance the economy. Easier said than done, but pro-business, pro-investment policies.

  6. English votes for English issues as part of the Devolution settlement


Plus:



  1. No votes for 16 year olds.


New world order coming.
Quantum
09 May 2015 10:13:19


 


That much is true.


However, I am so happy this morning


Having an overall majority is wonderful, since we can now implement the policies the LibDems blocked. I know many on here will disagree with me, but for me the following are manna from Heaven:



  1. Repeal the Human Rights Act

  2. Go to Brussels with a mandate to tell the Eurocrats to get stuffed.

  3. EU Referendum where the whole issue can be put to bed for a generation. What do I want out of this - for the UK to stay in a properly reformed relationship with the EU. We need the EU to recognise that there is an inner core (the Eurozone) and an outer zone of detached nations. The outer zone to have all the benefits of free trade, but without "ever closer union", without all the non-trade related Directives and without any concept of a United States of Europe. If Cameron can negotiate the right deal, I shall vote to remain in, otherwise it is out.

  4. Properly sort out the benefits system. Basically, young people should be in work, training or education - no benefits for being idle in other words. Catch people in their 20s and prevent them from sinking into the trap of a life on benefits.

  5. Rebalance the economy. Easier said than done, but pro-business, pro-investment policies.

  6. English votes for English issues as part of the Devolution settlement


Plus:



  1. No votes for 16 year olds.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Arguably we would have got all that with the Tories+Lib dems dealing informally with UKIP. I wish the exit poll had been closer to the mark.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
09 May 2015 10:17:26


 


Arguably we would have got all that with the Tories+Lib dems dealing informally with UKIP. I wish the exit poll had been closer to the mark.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The LibDems would never, ever agree to repeal the HRA - it is one of their red lines.


New world order coming.
Quantum
09 May 2015 10:19:34


 


The LibDems would never, ever agree to repeal the HRA - it is one of their red lines.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The rest of the Euro stuff isn't though.


Sigh, this has just been an awful election for me. Both of my favourite parties completely destroyed, and everyone thinking I'm in a bad mood because I like Milliband 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Justin W
09 May 2015 10:20:49


 


That much is true.


However, I am so happy this morning


Having an overall majority is wonderful, since we can now implement the policies the LibDems blocked. I know many on here will disagree with me, but for me the following are manna from Heaven:



  1. Repeal the Human Rights Act

  2. Go to Brussels with a mandate to tell the Eurocrats to get stuffed.

  3. EU Referendum where the whole issue can be put to bed for a generation. What do I want out of this - for the UK to stay in a properly reformed relationship with the EU. We need the EU to recognise that there is an inner core (the Eurozone) and an outer zone of detached nations. The outer zone to have all the benefits of free trade, but without "ever closer union", without all the non-trade related Directives and without any concept of a United States of Europe. If Cameron can negotiate the right deal, I shall vote to remain in, otherwise it is out.

  4. Properly sort out the benefits system. Basically, young people should be in work, training or education - no benefits for being idle in other words. Catch people in their 20s and prevent them from sinking into the trap of a life on benefits.

  5. Rebalance the economy. Easier said than done, but pro-business, pro-investment policies.

  6. English votes for English issues as part of the Devolution settlement


Plus:



  1. No votes for 16 year olds.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


Conveniently ignoring the Draft Communications Data Bill 


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
nickl
09 May 2015 10:26:41
Labour lost cos ed was unelectable outside their core 30%.

Go back to when he was selected. Many said at the time that unless the coalition completely screwed up, labour couldn't win with ed in charge.

It seems that those undecided voters when faced with the paper and pencil imagined ed at the despatch box, in the international arena and decided no.

I don't really see many other plausible explanations.
Maunder Minimum
09 May 2015 10:28:26


 


 


Conveniently ignoring the Draft Communications Data Bill 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Not too bothered about that to be honest - whatever they say they want, what they want to do is technically not feasible, so will fall flat on its face.


There are far more important fish to fry.


New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
09 May 2015 10:29:39

Labour lost cos ed was unelectable outside their core 30%.

Go back to when he was selected. Many said at the time that unless the coalition completely screwed up, labour couldn't win with ed in charge.

It seems that those undecided voters when faced with the paper and pencil imagined ed at the despatch box, in the international arena and decided no.

I don't really see many other plausible explanations.

Originally Posted by: nickl 


The other explanation is the one advanced by Alan Johnson on the radio this morning - the English want aspirational policies, rather than soak the rich policies.


New world order coming.
Quantum
09 May 2015 10:31:11


 


Not too bothered about that to be honest - whatever they say they want, what they want to do is technically not feasible, so will fall flat on its face.


There are far more important fish to fry.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It is really bloody stupid though. I will be laughing my arse off when it fails. How are the ISPs supposed to store this amount of data? I hope Google kicks off against this sort of thing, in the past when governments have tried this sort of thing, Google just stuck up their middle finger and there isn't a lot they could do.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
09 May 2015 10:53:59

Sums up many of my fears.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/scrap-the-human-rights-act-and-keep-ttip-heres-what-you-voted-for-and-will-get-with-a-tory-government-britain-10235374.html

Originally Posted by: NickR 


Should have voted UKIP  with over a 100 second places, Labour split the UKIP vote.


However bad the next 5 years will be though, a labour government would have been much much worse.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
NickR
09 May 2015 10:58:16


 


Should have voted UKIP  with over a 100 second places, Labour split the UKIP vote.


However bad the next 5 years will be though, a labour government would have been much much worse.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Unsurprisingly, I disagree.


 


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
SEMerc
09 May 2015 11:04:04

Sums up many of my fears.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/scrap-the-human-rights-act-and-keep-ttip-heres-what-you-voted-for-and-will-get-with-a-tory-government-britain-10235374.html

Originally Posted by: NickR 


I get the point about public spending cuts.


Make no mistake however that had Miliband got in Labour would have signed-off on the TTIP; because like Dave, Ed is a globalist.


The TTIP is quite possibly one of the most dangerous documents ever devised.


 

NickR
09 May 2015 11:08:12


 


I get the point about public spending cuts.


Make no mistake however that had Miliband got in Labour would have signed-off on the TTIP; because like Dave, Ed is a globalist.


The TTIP is quite possibly one of the most dangerous documents ever devised.


 


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


On that, we are in full agreement.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Charmhills
09 May 2015 11:32:29


Just spotted this result overnight - Liverpool Walton. Labour polled over 81% of the vote and the Conservatives lost their deposit. That must be one of the most one-sided constituency results ever?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000794


 


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


How very North Korean!


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Quantum
09 May 2015 11:35:50

One thing I haven't seen mentioned in here, is the stunning UUP victory in northern Ireland. I think we should all raise a glass to them, they manage to kick Sinn Fein out of a seat!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Charmhills
09 May 2015 11:41:37


 


That much is true.


However, I am so happy this morning


Having an overall majority is wonderful, since we can now implement the policies the LibDems blocked. I know many on here will disagree with me, but for me the following are manna from Heaven:



  1. Repeal the Human Rights Act

  2. Go to Brussels with a mandate to tell the Eurocrats to get stuffed.

  3. EU Referendum where the whole issue can be put to bed for a generation. What do I want out of this - for the UK to stay in a properly reformed relationship with the EU. We need the EU to recognise that there is an inner core (the Eurozone) and an outer zone of detached nations. The outer zone to have all the benefits of free trade, but without "ever closer union", without all the non-trade related Directives and without any concept of a United States of Europe. If Cameron can negotiate the right deal, I shall vote to remain in, otherwise it is out.

  4. Properly sort out the benefits system. Basically, young people should be in work, training or education - no benefits for being idle in other words. Catch people in their 20s and prevent them from sinking into the trap of a life on benefits.

  5. Rebalance the economy. Easier said than done, but pro-business, pro-investment policies.

  6. English votes for English issues as part of the Devolution settlement


Plus:



  1. No votes for 16 year olds.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Agreed.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Charmhills
09 May 2015 11:50:09

Sums up many of my fears.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/scrap-the-human-rights-act-and-keep-ttip-heres-what-you-voted-for-and-will-get-with-a-tory-government-britain-10235374.html

Originally Posted by: NickR 


An article based on fear.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Maunder Minimum
09 May 2015 12:06:17

This has been an election of big surprises. Like everyone else, I never expected the Tories to do any better than the largest party in a hung Parliament and even then, I really expected them to lose ground in the local elections, since that is what normally happens to a governing party even when they are winning the Westminster election. Yet, the Tories have made big advances in the local elections too, which is completely off the wall:


http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32671424


With results available for 246 councils, the state of play is:



  • The Conservatives have won 4,638 seats, up 485. They control 138 councils, an increase of 25

  • Labour have won 2,026 seats, down 161. They control 71 councils, three fewer than before

  • The Lib Dems have won 540 seats, down 312. They control three councils, four fewer than before

  • UKIP has won 145 seats, boosting its representation by 39

  • The Green Party has won 58 seats, a net gain of 12


New world order coming.

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