This is my theory about why Labour did so badly.
1) The shift right of the Lib dems since 2005. The rightward movement of the dems caused a situation where it pushed them further towards the tories than Labour. This was sealed with nick clegg as deputy pm, many who consider him the 'wanna be' tory.
2) The distrust and dislike of the SNP. In addition to 1) lib dem voters who might otherwise vote labour decided to vote tory because they value unionism more than they value labour.
3) The almost complete mitagation of UKIP damage to the tories. In the end instead of seeing the shy kipper we saw the 'maunder effect', risking a snp labour coalition proved too risky for even very pro UKIP. Many tories would have switched back at the last minute but the mitagation did not occur with Labour. While the damage done to the tories from UKIP was tiny, the damage done to labour was big, and UKIP excelled in labour seats. This was probably because Labour felt in a winning position anyway and that it was 'safe' to vote UKIP.
4) The opinion pollsters. Projections of an SNP-Labour deal being the most likely, in fact the only option only adds to the three points above. If this was less of a concern then more of the vote would go to UKIP and Lib dems.
5) Major Labour PR disaster. The effect of the gender segregation senior labour conference cannot be understated. A large number of labour supporters were so disgusted by this turn of events that they went directly to the Green party. Basically Labour was caught in a Pinsor movement: From the right by UKIP, from the left by the Greens.
6) And of course this list would be incomplete without the SNP getting a point all to itself. Catastrophe north of the border, wiped out 40 seats just like that.
I want to be clear though, I do not believe the Tories won out of their own merit. The tories won because Labour was hammered by everyone: Destroyed in Scotland by the SNP and held to ransom, the Greens draining their far left supporters, and UKIP their right ones. And a shoddy attempt to pick up the free lib dem votes. The tories should not get complacent.
Originally Posted by: Quantum