No, it's another Jiries mirage. 

Like this one from his garden?  

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/11/27/article-0-19AE66E200000578-964_964x623.jpg

True because the warm uppers only reach the SE with over 15C uppers during mid-week.  

IF we see some decent breaks in the cloud on Wednesday, much of England could have a shot at the mid to high 20's. Same goes for the far south on the previous day.

This is far from assured though, with very high moisture levels being pulled up from an unusually hot Mediterranean via NW Europe.

It could be a disappointingly cloudy week for much of England and Wales, and potentially very wet for some parts on Thursday and Friday - that event needs watching closely due to the unusually large amount of available moisture.

By contrast, the weekend is looking brighter and fresher, perhaps very usable if low pressure to the NW stays far enough away to permit largely dry conditions. After such a muggy week, it will probably come as a relief to many.

Beyond that, the models seem to be fairly well settled on there being a large scale trough in the vicinity of Iceland and ridges interchanging between the Azores and Scandinavia, hopefully via the UK rather than SE of here. 'Benign' pretty much sums it up, with near average temperatures and occasional spells of rain for the northwest, perhaps dry for much of the time across The southeast.

Need to keep a watch on this thundery low moving up from the south on Wednesday night. Could give a lot of rain locally. Detail will be very difficult to pin down until it actually starts to happen. But the latest NMM run shows up to 90mm locally in central southern England by 12z Thursday at which point the rain is still falling. So possibly 100mm or more locally. Could be a repeat of the July 2007 event if this sort of scenario comes off. No doubt things will change run by run in the next 48 hours.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081012/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?10-19

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I think it over the top for high precips under 15C uppers and even tomorrow to Wed under strong HP they put precips on it.

This morning they bring in more heat over southern half of UK instead of SE corner and by Thursday I would get temps similar to benelux temps results like last Sunday was around 29-30C over there and my local temps was 29.3C  I think the likely outcome here would be 31-32C on Thursday and today around mid 20's rising to high 20's tomorrow as per as benelux maxes with lot of sunny weather around before the storms come in on Friday then decent fresher weekend and settling down over here that make 2 Sundays in a row not being wet while Saturday continue to be good as ever since summer started regardless what the temps results was.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY AUG 11TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will lie across the UK for the next 24-36 hours. Thundery Low pressure will move up towards the South of England later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with some rain at times. Some dry and at times warm, humid conditions are likely for all areas as well.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow weakening across the UK in the coming days and resetting to the NW of the UK brieflywith another arm crossing the Atlantic towards Spain. The pattern remains complex through the period with the flow always lying close to or over the UK in a NE direction and occasionally West to East flow across the UK in response to Low pressure often to the North or NW.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a thundery Low moving North within 48 hrs across the South of the UK and then continuing North to become absorbed by general Low complex to the North or NW with thundery rain and showers for most areas from Thursday to Sunday. Thereafter pressure is shown to build for a time across Southern Britain with warm sunny spells before the end of the period sees Low pressure take command again, centred over the UK with cool, breezy and unsettled weather for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a changeable week to 10 days to become as thundery Low pressure moves North and as the operational becomes absorbed in genearal Low pressure to the North of the UK. The rise in pressure from the South is shown but more gradual on this run taking until midweek next week to take hold over he South. Then several days of set fair weather under a ridge slowly pulls back South towards the end of the run returning the North to westerly winds and rain at times to end the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning still indicate a lot of High pressure out to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with a ridge stretching influence across the UK especially the South. Just a 15% of members show something much more unsettled with Low pressure near Scotland and rain at times for all under Westerly breezes.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a thundery Low moving North across the UK on Thursday and Friday opening the door to a fresher Westerly flow with embedded troughs delivering some rain or showers to all at times but with some lengthy dry and bright spells too especially over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the same thundery Low moving North with it's attendant warm and humid unstable airmass ahead of a cold front moving east across the UK by the weekend returning cooler and fresher air with more occasional rain and showers across the UK through the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today is not particularly inspiring if it's a different pattern than of late your after. It too shows thundery Low pressure migrating North later this week which then opens the door to fresher Westerly winds and occasional rain or showers with just brief drier and more settled interludes in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too holds Low pressure in control over the UK throughout the latter stages of it's run this morning as the thundery Low moves to the North and then settles a trough near or over the UK in cool Westerly winds with rain or showers at times for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning looks a little different in it's latter stages. The first week of the run is much as the rest of the output with thundery Low pressure moving North with Westerly breezes moving across the UK in it's wake with showers especially across the North and West. Improvements are then shown to take shape later next week as High pressure builds across the South from the East with warm and humid weather returning to the South though it does look like the risk of a further thundery breakdown may not be far away after Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening shows the trough to the NW weaker and less in control over the UK as a large High pressure bias to the South of the UK could ensure plenty of dry, fine and warm conditions with any rain or showers from the trough to the NW focused on the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models trend changeable today with various options between the models still desiring a return to Atlantic airflow domination.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.8 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 94.6 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.0 pts followed by UKMO at 84.6 and GFS at 84.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.6 pts over GFS's 55.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.7 pts to 34.4 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The models remain very mixed especially in the longer term though the first week of the output does offer some consistency. In the immediate future all interest focuses on thundery Low pressure advancing North from Biscay and Spain across Southern and Central Britain on thursday and Friday. My own feeling about this is that I'm not convinced there will be a lot of electrical activity from this but there will certainly be some, areas to be determined yet. more likely areas of thundery rain will move North ahead of an opening door to a return of fresher and cooler Westerly winds for the weekend and beyond. When the thundery weather exits the North it looks like all areas will have a mix of sunny spells and occasional rain or showers especially towards the North and West. As in previous days it's from that point on things become much more difficult to pin down as some output wants to build High pressure across the UK at some point while others want to keep a stronger Atlantic influence with a continuation of the North/South split we have encountered of late. Which is right is still impossible to call with I'd say about an equal chance of verifying. I think that until we have moved this continental feature out of the playing field by the weekend conditions for later August may look clearer but unfortunately though there is some waarm or even very warm charts to drool over again this morning they don't come with much cross model support as yet so expect up's and down in long term analysis to continue for some days yet in subsequent runs. What none of the models show is anything particularly out of the ordinary so standard late Summer conditions look more likely than not for most for most if not all of the time.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Aug 12th 2015

Have you noticed how the UK always seem to be stuck under a trough-like set up no matter what - be it surface-based or the uppers - with high pressure to the west and east of us and the same thing is forecast for the next week or so.

This is what makes our country a difficult place to bear with when it comes to hoping for sustained summer-like weather.

Blame the North Atlantic Ian.

Well said. The models have been throwing some teasers in over the past few days. Not for UK-wide scorchio conditions or anything, but for a more settled, sunny & warm period for most. Of course, the Law of Sod dictates that the rubbish, westerly-orientated theme will continue.

What about today strong building HP gave rain to SE corner which I didn't know until I read the reports which is shocking how close as nowcast models can go wrong.  Thankfully it missed here but would leave lot of clouds behind so it might hamper the settled warm and sunny weather to Thursday.

Nothing "wrong" with the models. They have all shown a warm front to be present across the SE corner this morning, hence the cloud and rain. High pressure has nothing to do with it.

Doesn't tie in at all well with the Beeb written forecast for today so I assume their mesoscale had the cloud breaking more widely.

You just can't get the staff these days Brian 

EDIT: The MetO seemed to be on the ball:

Today:

A good deal of warm sunshine today. Though more in the way of cloud across parts of Scotland, which may give some patchy light rain or drizzle at times, and outbreaks of rain will affect far southeast.

The 12z runs yesterday were closer to the mark with the warm front than the 00z runs today, which adjusted it south when in fact it turned out to be a little further north! Perhaps the BBC thought the southward trend would continue instead.

Looking ahead to Thursday, and a convective event of some note looks possible, here's the WRF-NMM 00z for example:

...though of course convective precipitation at this time of year tends to feature more small-scale organisation than shown there, with cores dropping well in excess of 8 mm per hour, particularly when you have high amounts of precipitable water on offer (right hand image). That's the trouble with insufficient model resolution - which remains the case until your at something like 0.5km resolution. WRF-NMM's public output appears to be at close to 2km resolution.

Anyway, the initial push looks like a classic elevated storms event with some fairly decent mid-upper level CAPE available:

...though this fizzles out fairly quickly as it progresses north.

We may then see some fun and games (or extreme conditions...) across The South following possible surface heating during Thursday daytime, as 1000 or so surface-based CAPE builds in combination with a very moist atmosphere:

This SB CAPE also progresses north, holding together until nearly as far along as The Midlands. Notice the exceptional amounts of precipitable water arriving in the SE around 9pm - that could spell trouble.

The position and timing is all over the place from run to run so consider this a guide as to what is potentially on the cards for somewhere in England, perhaps including a fair slice of Wales too.

Currently I reckon the upper limit for precipitation totals is near 100mm, this being a localised amount with the wider area at risk of between 30 and 60mm... a big range I know, but this one's going to take a lot of work before we can start narrowing down on the specifics! 

Look like a repeat of hot weather again next Thursday with 30C temps.  No change so far until the weekend with cooler weather but decent one in here with low 20's before rising again next week.  No man land or not as some posts above still bring nice average weather with sunny spells.

I'm right smack in the middle of the heaviest area there 

However the latest run shifts it south but has insane amounts of rainfall... a blob of 200mm there on the south coast in 72 hours 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015081106/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?11-13

Hi all,

Here's today's video;

Heavy Rain To End The Week;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Could be some local flooding in places. Also looks at next week's weather...

I don't know if you have noticed that Meteo France have opened their well shuttered portals and now provide charts to Meteociel. Very high resolution on Arome (36x1hour time stamp)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?map=330

Arpege is the high-res global version with UK zoom. A lot of the output has 96x1hour time stamp)

Accumulated rain for south by +96.

That is closer to the GFS distribution. Dorset to get clobbered and a "mere" 30-40mm for me.

Thanks Nouska!

One for the favourites! :D