Although to be fair. indeed it did turn out more overcast and damp at this end today than I thought . . . but at the end of the day, weather forecasting will always be an inexact science. Surely you should know that by now?

GFS0z 5 day precip chart not looking as fearsome as last night's runs!

Told you so as those precips charts are completely waste of time and useless at 100%.  It changed a lot this week when we supposed to get a simple 2-3 hot days then a single day thunderstorm by Friday.  Now changed to October weather yesterday and today still dull with same rain haven't left Kent yet.  Where the deep LP on the charts for here today since the rain had been going on for 24 hours, normally deep LP doesn't last that long.  It there to stop the hot air scheduled to arrive here starting from yesterday so it now cancelled. Why it changed so much this week when last week the models was pointing for a very nice week? Now this morning GFS show very nice weekend with 2 HP linking each other and next week but would it change again or not? Surely cannot go worse than this week poor one.

That really a modern summer standard now with getting the heat in the first place it becoming more rare now.  

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY AUG 12TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure will lie across Central areas of the UK today a thundery low will develop over Biscay and move slowly North towards Southern England later tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with some rain at times. Some dry and at times warm, humid conditions are likely for all areas as well.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow to the NW of Scotland at the moment with a new arm extending SE from Newfoundland to Northern Spain from the weekend with a returning arm North over the North Sea. After several days of this arrangement the flow to the South weakens and the flow becomes a generally cyclonic one around Low pressure close to northern Britain later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today loks a very changeable affair over the two week period. The thundery Low moves North over the coming days to be absorbed by Low pressure to the North with a Westerly flow at the weekend with sunshine and showers in less warm and humid air. A blocking High pressure forms over NE Europe next week preventing Low pressure crossing east to the North and eventually sending them on a SE track across parts of the UK with further rain at times. This collapses late in the run and a Westerly flow with rain at times is shown to return to all areas by the end of the two week period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational this morning and any major differences between them is reserved for the very end of the run when High pressure is shown to build strongly across Southern Britain from the SW ensuring a warm and sunny spell here while the North stays a little more changeable under slack Westerly winds.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are not quite as good as yesterday with a few more members going for more unsettled conditions from off the Atlantic in 14 days while those that show better conditions under a ridge show the ridge not quite as pronounced and well positioned for the British Isles today.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows the thundery Low having moved North to the Northern Isles by the weekend leaving behind a spell of slack and unstable airflows across the UK, first from the West and then East as pressure builds over NE Europe. Occasional showers look likely almost anywhere perhaps becoming more focused towards the South and SW only later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the same thundery Low moving North with it's attendant warm and humid unstable airmass ahead of a very complex system of fronts introducing fresher air from the West for the weekend and start to next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows an equally changeable period with the main features being the build of pressure to the NE with a trough stalled near SE Britain early next week with a continuation here of the weekend showers which in itself follows the thundery rain of the coming days. Then as the High to the NE collapses a familiar North/South split under Westerly winds is shown to end the run with any rain most likely to the North then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a pressure rise across NE Europe behind the coming days thundery Low moving North. This sets up a trough stretching from Newfoundland through the UK to Italy next week with slack unstable air across the UK promoting some showery activity especially towards the SE and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning also follows the route in promoting a pressure rise to the NE after the coming days thundery Low heads to the North which unfortunately shows little benefit to the UK as it just serves to stall Atlantic Lows and troughs close to the UK with just brief dry and more settled interludes in occasionally cyclonic winds. It could become quite warm and humid at times though as Southerly winds ahead of fronts make the following rain heavy and thundery at times before fresher air moves in late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening shows a split between members with many opting for that rise of pressure to the NE of the UK and some with it well to the SW. This will probably result in the UK being in nomansland between the two High pressure areas with lower pressure to both the NW and SE promoting at least some shower activity.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are trending towards  a strong build of pressure over NE Europe which on this morning's charts show little better influence to the weather over the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 94.65pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.8 pts followed by UKMO at 84.4 and GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.2 pts over GFS's 55.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.5 pts to 35.0 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Things look like trending very changeable across the UK over the coming two weeks with some changes in the basic synoptic pattern not really benefiting the UK weather over the two weeks in a big way. What we have is a ridge across Central Britain declining soon as a thundery Low moves North from Biscay up the spine of Britain to the northern isles by the end of Friday. This could deliver some copious disruptive weather locally before a shift to fresher Atlantic westerly winds sweep the humidity and thundery weather away for the weekend when sunshine and scattered showers looks likely. A strong build of pressure is then indicated over NE Europe, too far east to benefit us much other than to stall any progression of Atlantic Lows and troughs coming up against it from the west meaning the UK looks like being under a stalled slack and sometimes low pressure gradient promoting further outbreaks of rain or showers at times which incidentally also helps develop rather cooler weather at long last over Southern Europe. thereafter we have to pick up the crumbs of what the longer term output shows us today and there is still some hope that pressure will rise across the UK with some warm and sunny conditions across the South late in the period. However, shuffling around rather slack synoptics is always difficult for the models to handle and credence on any one specific outcome should not be taken too seriously at this range. So still a rather changeable outlook I'm afraid and with the Summer clock ticking away I get the feeling that any long term Summer UK wide weather is still some way in the distance of at all. 

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Aug 13th 2015

There is no "deep LP". Just a trailing warm front across the SE on the southern flank of the high pressure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif

Badly forecast in terms of rainfall though!

Summer is over! The best we can hope for now is an Indian summer come September.