Bugger.

But how the front can be created by the HP?  Agreed and nothing outside are summery today and not warm too with cool winds and mostly cloudy skies.  Once it rain in the HP zone it become cancerous and spread the clouds further killing it off any prospect of sunny weather so it best to get this infected HP out of the way with newer one on Saturday onward.  I am sure the temps this weekend will feel warmer than today despite lower uppers of 4-5C.

It is not created by the High, it is associated with the shallow Low to the south of the UK (in France).

I meant to add behind it will be warmer (more humid) air which at some stage tomorrow be involved in the downpours which may hit some areas.

Still shouldn't create anything from a shallow and very weak low and being west of France shouldn't had effected much so something else that caused it to create a front over the HP and that to blame for it.

I guess it must be magic, or the cloud fairies in that case? 

Yes, I think you must be correct. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY AUG 12TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A thundery Low will move North up the eastern side of the UK today and tomorrow with a fresher Westerly flow following late tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with some rain at times. Some dry and at times warm, humid conditions are likely for all areas as well.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow mving North over the UK cutrrently before the main arm runs SE towards Northern Spain in a couple of days time. It then weakens and becomes almost non existent for quite a while mid run before reverting to crossing the Atlantic to lie close to Western and Southern Britain late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a thundery Low moving North to become absorbed by a Low to the North of the UK before the weekend. A Westerly but slack airflow becomes established for a time as High pressure builds strongly to the NE of Britain with winds switching SE. Low pressure is then forced SE towards SW areas of the UK keeping the most unsettled conditions here while the North and East close to the HIgh to the NE stay quite dry and occasionally warm. Late in the run the situation remains very benign with further Low pressure close to Southern England with rain or showers at times here with the best weather still in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today also shows High pressure developing to the North and NE next week replacing the existing Low pressure with new ones to the West and SW for much of the period. The best and driest conditions look most likely in the North and NE while the SW and South in general become most at risk of rain or showers in average temperatures though by the same token some short warmer and drier interludes too.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are generally quite poor today if it's fine and warm weather your looking for two weeks from now. The majority of members opt for the UK to lie under a trough of one sort or another fed down from the NW with High pressure favoured to lie to the East or NE of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today is rather better than GFS in as much as once the current thundery Low expires to the North pressure builds across the UK from both the NE and SW. This finger of slack winds known as a 'col' area will most likely maintain benign conditions with any rain restricted to the far NW and showers to the far SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the same thundery Low moving North with it's attendant warm and humid unstable airmass ahead of fresher air moving in from the West with airflow patterns becoming slack over the weekend and early next week with sunny spells and just a scattering of showers in places.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows an equally strong build of pressure to the North and NE of the UK once this thundery Low fills up and moves away North by the weekend. Slack winds for a time settle SE for many areas next week with Low pressure fed down into the SW approaches at times and delivering a stronger risk of rain or thundery showers to Southern and Western areas later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM prefers to hold on to a very slack pattern next week with High pressure to the NE and light winds and weak Low pressure close to the West with the risk of scattered showers maintained across the UK in luke warm conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning also shows a lot of slack pressure gradients in the vicinity of the UK over the next 10 days. The current thundery Low moves away North and pressure builds then to the NE and from the SW. As with UKMO a finger of High pressure will likely lieacross the UK ensuring a lot of dry weather and just scattered light showers. With time some erosion of High pressure into slack Low pressure is shown with a greater threat from rain and showers likely to develop towards the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening gives little clue as to where we will lie synoptically in 10 Days time as the chart itself shows hardly an isobar in sight no doubt made up of a lot of indecision between members between where and  how High or Low pressure will lie in relation to the UK. The most likely scenario thous is a benign pattern similar to what the operationals of many mebers show this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are trending towards  a strong build of pressure over NE Europe which on this morning's charts show varying degree of influence to the weather over the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.4pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.4 pts followed by UKMO at 84.4 and GFS at 83.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.9 pts over GFS's 55.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.5 pts to 35.8 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The biggest concistency between all of the output this morning is the build of pressure to the NE next week. One would think this would give us a very good chance of bringing the UK into a sustained period of very warm and settled weather but alas this one looks to be rather different. The problem is that synoptic pressure patterns elsewhere in the Northern hemisphere do not permit it to build a substantial ridge SW across the UK to link to our Azores High without intervention from lower pressure either feeding down from the NW and linking with other lower pressure to the SE leaving the UK under the technical term when we're between two High's and two Low's known as a 'Col' area. These are notoriously difficult to pin down actual weather details under as influences from both the High and Low pressure can occur within them. On this occasion I have looked at the whole output as a whole and I think I can determine that there will be a lot of dry weather around over the next few weeks as that High to the NE doesn't look like going anywhere fast. The problems lie in determining the extent and influence Low pressure has either from the SW later or NW as the blocking High to the NE sends them on a SE trajectory close to the UK and I'm afraid the jury is out on that one at present. One thing I can note is 850 temperatures are never overly high through the next few weeks so we have to rely on surface heating from prolonged sunshine to warm things up and that should happen on occasion for many so while I can't foresee any particularly hot late Summer weather coming up again this morning the conditions could well be acceptable for many much of the time with just scattered showers within a generally benign picture overall far more likely.

Next update from 09:00 Friday Aug 14th 2015

Thanks Martin.

Though it doesn't sound as though there is any spectacularly good weather on the way, what you describe for the coming days (apart from tomorrow) does sound quite a bit better for northern areas when compared against what we've had to put up with until now.

That Scandi High looks like it's keen to stick around. This is a change from 48 hours ago when the models had it sinking south, introducing another wave of heat to Iberia. They will be relieved at the change of tune, as it promotes gentle warmth for much of NW Europe. Hopefully the UK will be included too.

That does follow a pretty cool run of days Sat-Mon (the CET could fall to average or below), so I guess it ought to feel pretty pleasant in a relative sense 

ECM's revered to sinking the Scandi High in response to my last post in this thread 

It would potentially be a route to another thundery low from the south in the longer term. Not sure I fancy that after today's experience (not a logical way of looking at it I know!)

GFS sinks the high to some extent but then props it up with some shallow lows across SE Europe. We still come close to a thundery low though... something to keep an eye on.

It actually looks pleasantly warm for England and Wales from Tue or Wed next week, perhaps turning very warm by Thursday or Friday if the Atlantic trough can undercut the Scandi High.

The GFS solution for next weekend is perfect for the Bournemouth Air Show with temps in the mid-20's and a pleasant breeze. Bank!

It's been interesting to me the number of times recently that GFS and ECM op runs have taken different paths within the ten day range. I imagine that the often slack synoptics we've seen of late have likely been a factor in this.

Look quite decent all next week with linking HP from AZ to Scandi are a very good thing for us here as we see this set-up often in Spring time that bring lot of warm sunny weather with dry fresher easterly to south easterly winds.  They making another attempt to have very warm weather same time as this week which I hope it would come off this time but being how wrong they did yesterday forecast of high 20's and low 30's failed to happen then hard to know the outcome next week results.  This weekend will be much warmer than yesterday maxes and as it will reach low 20's here.

What model are you looking at Jires? The big 3 all appear to show HP to the NE and SW but with a trough nudging in from the NW and another low edging into the SE.

For example at day 5 (midnight Wednesday):

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Looks benign at best.

They are going for 20-21C here this weekend and with often under cook temps it would reach 22-23C so it will be warmer than yesterday maxes with strong sunshine after cool nights.  

Won't effect here but France would have a bad week but anything far much better outlook next week than this week which since Sunday had been run of poor days.  First time in a very long while to see Scotland join the settled party. 

Still ECM and GFS are at odds with each other about the Scandi High's influence next week. GFS, unusually in view of it's normal tendency, seems to be a bit less progressive wrt the atlantic influence than ECM just now.

Yes Jiries I think I'll have a barbecue... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif 

Having said that it would be typical if the weather did settle down next week. Why? Because the schools are back.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY AUG 14TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A trough of Low pressure will move east across the UK and weaken as it does leaving a light and fresher Westerly flow over the UK later tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining somewhat mixed with a lot of dry weather for all but with occasional rain too at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow with two arms, the main one running ESE over the Atlantic to Northern Spain while another weak arm moves North over Eastern Britain. Next week the flow becomes weak and well broken around the UK before later settling again across the Atlantic towards Western Britain at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the main focus being the build of High pressure across NE Europe next week. This follows a period of very slack winds and a few showers between tomorrow and then when East to SE winds take over and drag warm weather over from Europe. Pressure is shown to be low over France and this would spawn thundery showers across Southern areas at times while the North stays largely dry. Late in the period slack pressure gradients return for a time before Atlantic Westerlies with low pressure to the North drive wind and rain across the UK from the West to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today also shows High pressure developing to the North and NE next week but no as effective to the SW of the UK as the operational as it allows Atlantic Low pressure to slide SE across Southern and western Britain with rain at times. The North would stay drier for much of next week before all areas have a quiet interlude of light winds and fair days before Atlantic Low pressure feeds fronts West to East across the UK towards the end of the run with rain at times for all.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show High pressure to the NE and SW of the UK with varying degrees of influence between them on how much influence the ridge between them has over the UK. Confidence is low percentage wise on any one outcome verifying.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows slack pressure gradients to start next week before Southerly winds develop and fronts push in from the SW in association with a mid Atlantic depression towards midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the complex system of troughs currently affecting the UK moving East and clearing the UK tomorrow setting up a period of slack synoptics therefore light winds and fair weather in average temperatures. This scenario lasts until Tuesday when troughs approach the NE with some rain.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure developing well to the NE of the UK soon. This sets up the slack pressure gradients over the UK that the other output shows and brings about fair weather with a few showers. NE areas could also see rain early next week as a small Low moves NW close to the NE coast while soon afterwards a strong Atlantic depression trundles slowly into the UK from off the Atlantic turning things unsettled and breezy for all with rain at times to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is a bit more optimistic about things later next week as the slack and benign pattern of the early weeks strengthens into more of a link between High pressure to the NE and SW bringing fine and warmer weather to the South late next week with just the far NW seeing a little rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a lot of changebale synoptic patterns over the next 10 days. The current Low pressure system is shown to clear away North leaving a tenuous ridge across the UK from High pressure to the NE. One Low then move NW over NE parts early next week with some rain there followed by an Atantic depression and SW winds with rain at times for many soon after midweek. This also clears North with High pressure transiting East over the UK to end next week followed by a warm and probably turning thundery end to the weekend from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening continues to point towards uncertainty in the 10 Day point as slack pressure over and around the UK remains the order of the day. This is no doubt compiled by members splitting between influence from Low pressure to the NW to a strong influence of a High pressure belt from the NE and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are trending towards  a strong build of pressure over NE Europe which on this morning's charts continue to show varying degree of influence to the weather over the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 94.4pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.6 pts followed by UKMO at 84.5 and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.1 pts over GFS's 55.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.3 pts to 36.5 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS This Summer has been one of the most difficult for the models to handle efficiently for as long as I remember. I have been doing these reviews for several years now and confidence on what the models show verifying at even short time spans leave me with low confidence at any particular model run verifying. However, here's todays attempt. What we have currently is the remains of yesterdays thundery Low (which in itself has proved very difficult to pin down fine details) ebbing North and East over the next 24 -36 hours. Pressure then builds slowly over the UK but more markedly over NE Europe with a tenuous ridge developing from it across the UK in very slack winds. Then a NW moving small Low could bring rain to NE Britain early next week with fine but never overly warm weather especially by night occurring elsewhere with the caveat of the risk of isolated showers. Then as we move into the latter stages of next week models diverge to various types of solutions ranging from a return to an Atlantic Low with it's wind and rain for all to High pressure building over the UK for a time with fine, sunny and warm weather developing as per ECM next weekend. The GFS operational goes for a warm and thundery spell in the South with the best weather further North while ECM seems to run with a variety of synoptics all within a short time span. All this shows to me that current hemispheric air conditions are difficult for the models to get a grip with as a lot of slack pressure patterns can evolve into almost anything thereafter if there is no one driving Low or High pressure to drive the weather. What I have noticed this Summer is that the UK has hardly ever had Low or High pressure directly over the UK dictating conditions with an array of slacker scenarios instead driving things which sometimes the models have made a real dog's dinner at forecasting and at others have been moderate at best in predicting outcomes correctly. This morning's crop of output comes with an equal amount of low confidence beyond early next week and while nothing remarkably bad or good is shown from what we see today that's not to say that the next set of outputs in subsequent days will not come up with another set of variables. There will be no report from me tomorrow morning but I will return for Sunday morning's set.

Next update from 09:00 Sunday Aug 16th 2015

Excellent Summer.....ey  Martin

Quite! I think that is what is commonly known as sod's law.

Look decent next week here with low 20's to high 20's but not sure how it can reach 27-28C on Saturday under 997mb LP? It bring rain late Saturday and clearing away to dry Sunday and cooler temps.  Just I don't believe seeing high temps at deep LP over us so it likely to be over the top and end up higher pressure values and low to mid 20's temps.  Once thing that notice very well since June that Saturday never been wet at all. 

BH now appearing and looking very warm and settled nationwide so hopefully September 1991 would be a repeat again and give the north a chance to get sustained settled weather.  I think it going to happen as per posts above when kids to go back to school.

Along with a probably strong El Nino you do wonder whether winter will be over this year by mid December. Fingers crossed!